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Midstream MLP Stats 5/24/16

It has been an ugly year for refinery logistic MLPs. For about two years - they have been the safe port in the sectors storm. With the rising price of the WTI, it is logical that the full sector would be doing better and the refinery logistics would be doing worse. "Under do" is not in the sector's vocabulary. It "over does" almost everything. So if there needed to be a refinery logistic correction - then the sector is just being consistent by over doing the correction.

One has always paid and very high (but logical) premium for these mostly very high CAGR projection companies. I project that I will spend most of June working on bringing my sector DCF projection current - it is a labor intensive task that takes that long. At this point in time, I am not aware of any fundamental shift that would have changed the CAGRs of the refinery logistic companies. This appears to be a logical time to be balancing one's portfolio to get refinery logistic exposure. Get your CAGR projections updated before you do this task. The data:

MLP Midstream 5-24-16

The consensus DCF (Distributable Cash Flow) projections were last (partially) updated on 2-29-16. The CAGR (the distribution Compound Annual Growth Rate) projections were updated 2-29-16. Yields are based on the Q2-16 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header, the change in the distribution is the change since Q2-15 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS and DCF is the percentage change in the consensus 2016 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2016. The Dist/DCF number is the ratio of the Q2-16 distribution to the 2016 DCF projection. The 2016 DCF projection is an adjusted average of eleven DCF projections from the major brokerages covering MLPs. The CAGR is intended to be the percentage change in my CAGR projection since the beginning of the year - but I lack confidence that I have this stat right. The target prices and EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance. EXLP is now APLP. TGP plans a $0.14 Q1-16 distribution and TOO plans a $0.11 distribution.


Company   Current Distrib/ Q2 Dist Dist/dcf Dist/dcf Year-to-Date Percent Change
    Price Quarter Yield 2016 2017 Price Pr+Dist EPS Target DCF Dist* cagr

Antero Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:AM) 23.78 0.2350 3.95 68.61 64.38 4.21 6.27 -16.00 -1.97 -3.52 30.56 -1.41
American Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:AMID) 11.57 0.4125 14.26 83.33 88.24 43.02 53.21 5.98 -15.46 -1.00 -12.70 0.00
Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ:BKEP) 5.31 0.1450 10.92 64.44 58.00 -5.52 -0.36 -84.38 -16.22 5.88 3.94 -3.51
Buckeye Partners, L.P. (NYSE:BPL) 72.81 1.1875 6.52 89.96 85.74 10.39 13.99 0.24 -2.43 0.19 3.26 -4.55
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP (NYSE:BWP) 17.04 0.1000 2.35 22.10 20.00 31.28 32.82 10.00 -1.20 2.26 0.00 0.00
Cone Midstream Partners LP (CNNX) 15.77 0.2450 6.21 72.59 65.33 60.10 65.08 8.96 -5.70 6.30 15.57 0.00
Columbia Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE:CPPL) 13.48 0.1875 5.56 75.00 63.56 -22.88 -20.74 -8.82 -13.55 11.11 11.94 0.00
Delek Logistics Partners, LP (NYSE:DKL) 25.65 0.6100 9.51 75.78 73.27 -28.13 -24.71 -23.92 -14.57 -4.17 15.09 -6.25
Dominion Midstream Partners (NYSE:DM) 28.10 0.2245 3.20 74.21 59.47 -8.35 -6.89 1.64 -1.36 3.42 28.29 -0.71
DCP Midstream Partners LP (DPM) 33.40 0.7800 9.34 98.42 99.05 35.39 41.71 -23.21 -0.12 -5.09 0.00 -50.00
Enable Midstream Partners (NYSE:ENBL) 14.60 0.3180 8.71 100.95 100.95 58.70 65.61 -6.10 -7.26 -9.35 1.76 -75.00
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:EEP) 21.68 0.5830 10.76 107.47 102.28 -6.03 -0.97 -39.50 -29.85 -4.82 2.28 -73.68
EnLink Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:ENLK) 15.85 0.3900 9.84 87.15 78.39 -4.40 0.30 -91.80 -31.82 -1.10 2.63 0.00
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (NYSE:EPD) 27.24 0.3950 5.80 77.45 73.49 6.49 9.58 -6.85 -5.65 -2.39 5.33 0.00
Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. (ETP) 36.33 1.0550 11.62 91.54 81.31 7.71 13.96 -57.65 -20.75 -4.16 3.94 -1.69
EQT Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:EQM) 76.70 0.7450 3.89 62.21 63.81 1.64 3.62 6.74 -1.03 -3.23 22.13 0.00
Exterran/Archrock (NASDAQ:APLP) 14.53 0.5725 15.76 91.60 80.07 18.03 27.34 -41.67 -30.68 -5.30 1.78 -16.67
Genesis Energy LP (NYSE:GEL) 37.20 0.6700 7.20 68.02 64.11 1.25 4.90 -22.07 -20.77 -1.50 12.61 0.00
Holly Energy Partners L.P. (NYSE:HEP) 33.24 0.5750 6.92 85.50 83.03 6.74 10.44 8.52 9.83 1.51 6.98 0.00
Kinder Morgan, Inc (NYSE:KMI) 17.32 0.1250 2.89 22.62 21.10 16.09 17.76 -5.33 -3.75 -3.07 -73.96 0.00
Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. (NYSE:MEP) 7.97 0.3575 17.94 140.20 137.50 -18.00 -10.65 0.00 -52.96 -17.74 2.88 na
Martin Midstream Partners LP (NASDAQ:MMLP) 21.41 0.8125 15.18 98.78 97.89 -1.34 6.15 -25.00 -28.25 -2.08 0.00 -50.00
Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:MMP) 70.46 0.8025 4.56 80.45 73.96 3.71 6.07 -5.69 -1.05 0.50 11.85 -4.49
MPLX or Marathon LP (NYSE:MPLX) 33.31 0.5050 6.06 82.11 73.99 -15.31 -12.74 -32.78 -37.69 -8.89 23.17 -23.08
NuStar Energy L.P. (NYSE:NS) 48.32 1.0950 9.06 90.68 87.60 20.50 25.96 1.78 -1.34 -1.83 0.00 -42.86
Oneok Partners, L.P. (OKS) 37.98 0.7900 8.32 102.27 96.05 26.05 31.30 12.69 8.86 1.31 0.00 0.00
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (NYSE:PAA) 23.35 0.7000 11.99 114.75 97.22 1.08 7.14 -28.89 -25.76 -9.29 2.19 -66.67
Phillips 66 Partners L.P. (NYSE:PSXP) 52.65 0.4810 3.65 68.71 57.09 -14.25 -12.68 -18.32 -0.52 0.36 30.00 -6.67
Spectra Energy Partners, LP (NYSE:SEP) 44.93 0.6338 5.64 82.58 75.23 -5.81 -3.15 6.73 2.10 8.87 3.85 0.00
Shell Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:SHLX) 33.16 0.2350 2.83 58.75 49.21 -30.48 -29.50 -1.23 -1.16 0.00 34.29 0.00
Summit Midstream Partners, LP (NYSE:SMLP) 22.80 0.5750 10.09 90.55 77.44 21.73 27.87 -59.04 -60.41 -4.87 1.77 0.00
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. (NYSE:SXL) 28.41 0.4890 6.88 86.93 71.13 10.54 14.35 -26.36 37.98 -2.60 16.71 0.00
TC PipeLines, LP (NYSE:TCP) 53.92 0.8900 6.60 79.46 75.42 8.47 12.05 8.59 41.36 -1.32 5.95 -10.00
Tallgrass Energy Partners, LP (TEP) 46.11 0.7050 6.12 85.71 70.50 11.89 15.31 -8.16 -21.29 -6.53 45.36 10.00
Tesoro Logistics LP (TLLP) 47.74 0.8100 6.79 76.60 72.48 -5.13 -1.91 -2.74 -9.53 -2.76 16.55 0.00
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. (NYSE:TLP) 38.12 0.6800 7.14 74.73 69.92 42.45 47.53 -16.38 37.50 0.00 2.26 0.00
Valero Energy Partners LP (NYSE:VLP) 43.22 0.3400 3.15 46.42 49.10 -16.26 -14.94 11.81 -0.19 0.00 22.74 -4.67
Western Gas Partners LP (NYSE:WES) 51.90 0.8150 6.28 89.56 78.74 9.19 12.62 9.44 -20.85 -0.82 12.41 0.00
Western Refining Logistics (NYSE:WNRL) 22.17 0.4025 7.26 77.03 67.93 -9.62 -6.34 -23.62 -9.40 -5.86 20.87 -4.76
Williams Partners L.P. (NYSE:WPZ) 30.79 0.8500 11.04 90.67 85.00 10.56 16.66 -48.65 0.00 -2.34 0.00 -33.33

Pipeline Average     7.80 80.90 74.73 6.89 11.10 -15.78 -8.92 3.93 8.36  
Shipping
Golar LNG Partners LP (NASDAQ:GMLP) 16.85 0.5775 13.71 105.96 115.50 25.93 34.57 -9.96 -10.21 0.00 0.00 0.00
Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NYSE:NMM) 1.35 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.00 -55.30 -55.30 -75.93 -81.28 0.00 -100.00 0.00
Teekay LNG Partners LP. (NYSE:TGP) 14.00 0.1400 4.00 18.06 18.67 6.46 8.59 -10.74 -49.96 0.00 -80.00 -50.00
Teekay Offshore Partners LP. (NYSE:TOO) 6.01 0.1100 7.32 19.82 16.30 -7.25 -3.86 -19.27 -47.57 -11.90 -79.57 -71.43

Shipping Average     6.26 38.03   -7.54 -4.00 -28.98 -47.26    

MidStream Average   7.66 76.81 71.35 5.58 9.73 -16.98 -12.41    

The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is 3.95% year to date.
The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is 3.87% and with dividends is 5.72%.
The S&P500 index ETF SPY is 1.96% and with dividends is 2.48%.
The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is 0.28% and with dividend is 0.57%.
With the 10yr Treasury @ 1.84% & the sector average yield on Q1 distributions at 7.66% - the spread is 582 bps.
With the JNK yielding 6.22% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is 143 bps.
With the HYG yielding 5.68% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is 197 bps.