Transportation Update 1-18-17

Jan. 19, 2017 9:57 AM ET
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Contributor Since 2011

I seek to liberate investors from the chains of borrowed opinions by teaching metric awareness that leads to the formation of your own opinions. I am a retail investor that gathers, processes and analyzes significantly more data than average. I share that data in my articles. I let the data do the talking. I am only taking dictation as the data tells its message.

UNP reported this morning 2016 EPS of $5.07 compared to Yahoo Finance consensus analyst forecast of $5.01. 2016 Gross ton-miles (millions) were 856,895 compared to 927,677 - they shipped 7.7% less stuff. The $5.07 compares to $5.49 in 2015 - a fall of 9%.

2017 guidance - ". . we are fairly optimistic about some of the macro-economic indicators that drive our core business. Higher energy prices, favorable agricultural markets and improving business and consumer confidence all support a return to positive volume growth this year." They will ship more stuff. UNP is up 4% on the news.

Transportation 01-18-17 The Q4-16 dividend is used for yield calculations. All companies have fiscal years that match calendar years - with the one exception of FDX - which starts in June. The change in the price, price + dividend, 2016 EPS projection and target is the change since market's close of 12-31-15. The last three years average dividend growth is calculated by dividing the total dividend growth from Q4-13 to Q4-16 divided by three.

    12-31-16 Current Dividend Current Div/EPS Percent Change Div Growth
Company Price Price /Quarter Yield Ratio Price Pr+Div 17 EPS Target LTM 3 yrs
ArcBest Corporation ARCB 27.65 31.05 0.08 1.03% 20% 12.30 12.30 0.63 7.17 0.00 55.56
CH Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW 73.26 74.05 0.43 2.32% 47% 1.08 1.08 -0.54 2.68 13.16 7.62
Canadian National Railway CNI 67.40 69.75 0.29 1.68% 31% 3.49 3.49 2.75 6.73 23.16 14.93
Canadian Pacific Railway CP 142.77 145.22 0.39 1.06% 15% 1.72 1.72 11.28 -0.02 52.78 5.56
CSX Corp. CSX 35.93 36.88 0.18 1.95% 36% 2.64 2.64 1.51 6.63 0.00 6.67
Expeditors International EXPD 52.96 53.72 0.20 1.49% 32% 1.44 1.44 -0.40 0.61 11.11 11.11
FedEx Corporation FDX 186.20 187.23 0.40 0.85% 13% 0.55 0.55 0.00 0.55 60.00 55.56
Forward Air Corp. FWRD 47.38 48.85 0.15 1.23% 26% 3.10 3.10 -0.43 2.74 25.00 16.67
GATX Corp. GATX 61.58 57.21 0.40 2.80% 36% -7.10 -7.10 0.00 2.98 5.26 9.68
JB Hunt Transport JBHT 97.07 98.03 0.22 0.90% 21% 0.99 0.99 0.00 2.99 4.76 15.56
Kansas City Southern KSU 84.85 84.96 0.33 1.55% 26% 0.13 0.13 -1.55 -3.05 0.00 17.83
Knight Transportation Inc. KNX 33.05 34.20 0.06 0.70% 18% 3.48 3.48 0.00 3.12 0.00 0.00
Landstar System, Inc. LSTR 85.30 85.05 0.09 0.42% 10% -0.29 -0.29 0.58 3.95 12.50 16.67
Matson, Inc. MATX 35.39 35.71 0.19 2.13% 39% 0.90 0.90 -3.43 -4.40 5.56 6.25
Norfolk Southern Corp. NSC 108.07 109.97 0.59 2.15% 38% 1.76 1.76 0.66 5.09 0.00 4.49
Ryder System. Inc. R 74.44 75.76 0.44 2.32% 29% 1.77 1.77 0.00 0.17 7.32 9.80
Trinity Industries Inc. TRN 27.76 27.58 0.11 1.60% 35% -0.65 -0.65 0.00 3.83 0.00 15.56
Union Pacific Corp. UNP 103.68 103.77 0.60 2.33% 43% 0.09 0.09 0.36 3.82 10.00 17.72
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS 117.64 114.96 0.78 2.71% 51% -2.28 -2.28 0.00 0.56 6.85 8.60
Westinghouse Air Brake WAB 83.02 87.24 0.10 0.46% 9% 5.08 5.08 0.00 0.56 25.00 50.00
Average         1.58% 29% 1.51 1.51 0.57 2.34 13.12
The ^DJT or Dow Jones Transportation Average has changed 1.07% year to date.
The IYT or iShares Transportation Average - with unreinvested dividends - has changed 0.97% year to date.
The SPY or S&P 500 EFT has changed 1.44% year to date.
The SPY or S&P 500 EFT - with unreinvested dividends - has changed 1.44% year to date.
With the 10 Treasury at 2.43% and the sector average yield on Q4 Dividends at 1.58% - the spread is -57 basis points.
The number for the first dividend change is for the last twelve months and not year to date. The second change is a 3 year average.

Price/Earnings Ratios 01-18
All companies have fiscal years that match calendar years - with the one exception of FDX - which starts in June.
Stocks with large spreads between the high and low projections have varied each of the three quarters that metric has been tracked

  EPS / Share % EPS Growth Price/EPS 16 EPS Range
Co. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 2016 2017 2018 High/ Low Range
ARCB 1.82 1.78 0.89 1.59 1.96 -2.20 -50.00 78.65 23.27 34.89 19.53 15.84 0.94 0.86 8.99%
CHRW 3.05 3.51 3.58 3.69 3.97 15.08 1.99 3.07 7.59 20.68 20.07 18.65 3.76 3.54 6.15%
CNI 3.76 4.44 3.50 3.74 4.06 18.09 -21.17 6.86 8.56 19.93 18.65 17.18 3.47 3.38 2.57%
CP 8.50 10.10 7.97 9.96 10.29 18.82 -21.09 24.97 3.31 18.22 14.58 14.11 8.26 7.75 6.40%
CSX 1.92 2.00 1.79 2.02 2.25 4.17 -10.50 12.85 11.39 20.60 18.26 16.39 1.83 1.68 8.38%
EXPD 1.92 2.39 2.35 2.48 2.75 24.48 -1.67 5.53 10.89 22.86 21.66 19.53 2.45 2.32 5.53%
FDX 6.75 8.95 10.80 11.98 13.51 32.59 20.67 10.93 12.77 17.34 15.63 13.86 12.31 11.00 12.13%
FWRD 1.96 2.25 2.07 2.32 2.61 14.80 -8.00 12.08 12.50 23.60 21.06 18.72 2.11 2.05 2.90%
GATX 4.48 5.37 5.68 4.48 3.98 19.87 5.77 -21.13 -11.16 10.07 12.77 14.37 5.71 5.65 1.06%
JBHT 3.16 3.66 3.78 4.19 4.80 15.82 3.28 10.85 14.56 25.93 23.40 20.42 3.82 3.73 2.38%
KSU 4.82 4.49 4.52 5.09 5.65 -6.85 0.67 12.61 11.00 18.80 16.69 15.04 4.64 4.47 3.76%
KNX 1.25 1.47 1.18 1.30 1.54 17.60 -19.73 10.17 18.46 28.98 26.31 22.21 1.22 1.11 9.32%
LSTR 3.07 3.37 3.18 3.47 3.88 9.77 -5.64 9.12 11.82 26.75 24.51 21.92 3.20 3.05 4.72%
MATX 1.63 2.89 1.87 1.97 2.16 77.30 -35.29 5.35 9.64 19.10 18.13 16.53 1.89 1.84 2.67%
NSC 6.39 5.10 5.59 6.13 6.72 -20.19 9.61 9.66 9.62 19.67 17.94 16.36 5.62 5.46 2.86%
R 5.58 6.13 5.77 5.97 6.46 9.86 -5.87 3.47 8.21 13.13 12.69 11.73 5.82 5.70 2.08%
TRN 4.19 4.87 2.18 1.25 1.18 16.23 -55.24 -42.66 -5.60 12.65 22.06 23.37 2.23 2.15 3.67%
UNP 5.75 5.49 5.01 5.60 6.12 -4.52 -8.74 11.78 9.29 20.71 18.53 16.96 5.04 4.88 3.19%
UPS 4.75 5.43 5.82 6.17 6.57 14.32 7.18 6.01 6.48 19.75 18.63 17.50 5.85 5.78 1.20%
WAB 3.62 4.10 3.97 4.29 4.96 13.26 -3.17 8.06 15.62 21.97 20.34 17.59 4.00 3.93 1.76%
Average         14.41 -9.85 8.91 9.41 20.78 19.07 17.41      

Disclosure: I am/we are long NSC, UNP.

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