Packaging Sector 01-19-17

Jan. 20, 2017 6:15 AM ET

4.71K Followers

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AVY was added to the coverage universe when Barclays put it on the buy list at the beginning of the year. Since then, the price target is up. It is not long till the Avery Dennison Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2016 earnings conference call on Wednesday, February 1, 2017, at 11 a.m. EST. The company's fourth quarter and full year earnings news release will be issued earlier that morning. There may be clues in that event.

Packaging Sector 01-19-17

The Q4-16 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2017 EPS projection as the denominator. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q4-15. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q4-11. In 2015 RKT combined with MeadWestvaco (MWV) to form WestRock (WRK). On 1-30 RKT declared a dividend of $0.320525/share, reflecting the regular quarterly dividend payment of $0.1875 per share plus an additional amount of $0.133025 per share which equalizes the absolute dividend between RockTenn and MeadWestvaco. This moved the payout ratio from 18% to 30%. On 7-01 WRK declared a dividend of $0.375/share. KapStone (KS) - with a 2.2% yield and 10% CAGR - should be added once newly initiated dividend has LTM growth. I need to add Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) which has a $4.5 billion market cap; a 1.40% yield and a 15.63% CAGR. The IP spin-off of Veritiv in mid 2014 was treated as a 1014 : 1000 Stock Split in the Yahoo stats. The ratio was so small that I chose to ignore it with my data. I added Avery Dennison Corp (AVY) on 1-03-17 due to being a Barclay's top buy.


		12-31-16	01-19	Div	Current	Div/	Div/	Percent Change
Company		Price	Price	/Quarter	Yield	EPS¹⁷	EPS¹⁸	Price	Pr+Div	EPS¹⁷	Target	Div 1yr	Div 5yr

Aptar Group, Inc.	(ATR)	73.45	72.73	0.320	1.76	39 %	35 %	-0.98	-0.98	-0.30	-0.18	6.67	9.09
Avery Dennison		70.94	72.49	0.410	2.26	38 %	35 %	2.18	2.18	-0.23	11.64	10.81	12.80
Ball Corporation	(BLL)	75.07	75.61	0.130	0.69	12 %	10 %	0.72	0.72	0.00	0.83	0.00	17.14
Bemis Company, Inc.	(BMS)	47.82	49.55	0.290	2.34	39 %	35 %	3.62	3.62	0.00	1.68	3.57	4.17
Greif, Inc.	(GEF)	51.31	52.44	0.420	3.20	57 %	52 %	2.20	2.20	0.00	0.39	0.00	0.00
PH Glatfelter	(GLT)	23.89	23.60	0.125	2.12	31 %	31 %	-1.21	-1.21	0.00	0.83	4.17	7.78
International Paper Company	(IP)	53.06	52.68	0.463	3.51	46 %	42 %	-0.72	-0.72	-0.25	3.37	5.11	15.17
Mobile Mini, Inc.	(MINI)	30.25	28.60	0.205	2.87	61 %	57 %	-5.45	-5.45	0.00	0.00	9.33	Infinity
Packaging Corporation of America	(PKG)	84.82	85.76	0.630	2.94	45 %	39 %	1.11	1.85	-0.54	1.44	14.55	43.00
WestRock Company		50.77	51.28	0.400	3.12	51 %	42 %	1.00	1.00	-0.64	1.91	6.67	60.00
Sealed Air Corporation	(SEE)	45.34	48.12	0.160	1.33	22 %	20 %	6.13	6.13	-0.67	0.00	23.08	4.62
Silgan Holdings Inc.	(SLGN)	51.18	54.60	0.170	1.25	21 %	19 %	6.68	6.68	0.31	0.96	6.25	10.91
Sonoco Products Co.	(SON)	52.70	53.48	0.370	2.77	53 %	50 %	1.48	1.48	-0.36	1.01	5.71	5.52
West Pharmaceutical Services	(WST)	84.83	83.72	0.130	0.62	20 %	17 %	-1.31	-1.31	0.00	0.00	8.33	8.89

Average					2.20	38 %	35 %	1.10	1.16	-0.19	1.70	7.45	18.10

The SPY (S&P 500 EFT) is up 1.06% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is up 1.06% year to date.
The VSI (Vanguard Industrials ETF) is up 1.38% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is up 1.38% year to date.
With the 10 Treasury at 2.45% and the sector average yield on Q4 Dividends at 2.2% - the spread is -8 basis points.
* The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

Price/Earnings Ratios 01-19
WRK starts fiscal 2017 at the beginning of calendar Q4-16. I guesstiated the 18 projection for MINI


	EPS / Share					% EPS Growth				Price/EPS			16 EPS Range
Co.	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	14-15	15-16	16-17	17-18	2016	2017	2018	High	Low	Range

ATR	2.86	3.00	3.10	3.32	3.68	4.90	3.33	7.10	10.84	23.46	21.91	19.76	3.13	3.08	1.61%
AVY	3.11	3.44	3.97	4.30	4.72	10.61	15.41	8.31	9.77	18.26	16.86	15.36	4.00	3.95	1.26%
BLL	3.88	3.48	3.46	4.31	5.06	-10.31	-0.57	24.57	17.40	21.85	17.54	14.94	3.52	3.37	4.34%
BMS	2.30	2.55	2.68	2.94	3.27	10.87	5.10	9.70	11.22	18.49	16.85	15.15	2.70	2.67	1.12%
GEF	2.36	2.18	2.46	2.97	3.25	-7.63	12.84	20.73	9.43	21.32	17.66	16.14	3.05	2.89	6.50%
GLT	1.55	1.34	1.39	1.60	1.63	-13.55	3.73	15.11	1.87	16.98	14.75	14.48	1.47	1.31	11.51%
IP	3.00	3.65	3.35	4.03	4.45	21.67	-8.22	20.30	10.42	15.73	13.07	11.84	3.39	3.32	2.09%
MINI	1.09	1.32	1.21	1.35	1.44	21.10	-8.33	11.57	6.67	23.64	21.19	19.86	1.24	1.16	6.61%
PKG	4.66	4.53	4.82	5.55	6.38	-2.79	6.40	15.15	14.95	17.79	15.45	13.44	4.86	4.72	2.90%
WRK	3.76	3.96	2.86	3.12	3.82	5.32	-27.78	9.09	22.44	17.93	16.44	13.42	2.86	2.58	9.79%
SEE	1.86	2.59	2.60	2.96	3.23	39.25	0.39	13.85	9.12	18.51	16.26	14.90	2.64	2.59	1.92%
SLGN	3.17	2.97	2.76	3.26	3.57	-6.31	-7.07	18.12	9.51	19.78	16.75	15.29	2.78	2.74	1.45%
SON	2.54	2.51	2.73	2.79	2.96	-1.18	8.76	2.20	6.09	19.59	19.17	18.07	2.73	2.70	1.10%
WST	1.78	1.83	2.21	2.57	3.02	2.81	20.77	16.29	17.51	37.88	32.58	27.72	2.22	2.19	1.36%

Average							1.77	13.72	11.23	20.80	18.32	16.46

Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long PKG, WRK.

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