Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Apollo Investment Corporation (AINV) Slightly Beats NII Projections - NAV Falls

|Includes: Apollo Investment (AINV)

The good news. PWAY fell from 11.0% to 10.9%. Senior secured loans grew from 64% of the portfolio to 69%. Structured products (CLOs) fell to 9% from 12% - and have fallen more since the end of the quarter. There was a beat of TII.

The bad news. NII was down - but down less than projected. NAV was down - but now by much. Share repurchases added a penny to NAV during the quarter while having a dividend below NII added a penny. Portfolio valuation was down $0.12/share while NAV was down $0.09/share.

The Yahoo projections:

  Current Qtr. Next Qtr. Current Year Next Year
No. of Analysts 13 13 13 13
Avg. Estimate 0.16 0.16 0.66 0.67
Low Estimate 0.15 0.15 0.62 0.63
High Estimate 0.18 0.18 0.70 0.72
Year Ago EPS 0.21 0.2 0.83 0.66

Revenue Estimate

  Current Qtr. Next Qtr. Current Year Next Year
No. of Analysts 8 8 8 8
Avg. Estimate 69.67M 69.53M 284.64M 283.35M
Low Estimate 67.48M 66.83M 279.81M 258.6M
High Estimate 72.4M 72.44M 288.94M 296.01M
Year Ago Sales 94.33M 85.33M 379.75M 284.64M

My main AINV spreadsheet:

Apollo

  Q4-2016 Q3-2016 Q2-2016 Q1-2016 Q4-2015 Q3-2015 Q2-2015 Q1-2015 Q4-2014 Q3-2014 Q2-2014 Q1-2014 Q4-2013
Total investment income 68.071 69.026 76.469 85.335 94.325 98.420 101.666 102.115 110.026 118.910 102.580 94.561 94.561
Net investment income 36.352 39.537 36.064 44.618 48.091 49.561 50.986 52.071 56.662 65.688 53.201 49.683 49.683
Investments @ fair value 2.526 2.549 2.618 2.917 3.069 3.194 3.314 3.350 3.514 3.665 3.645 3.479 3.184
Wt Av Share Count 220.169 223.835 225.941 228.5* 231.537 235.873 236.741 236.741 236.741 236.741 236.741 236.741 224.741
TII/share $0.3092 $0.3084 $0.3384 $0.3734 $0.4074 $0.4173 $0.4294 $0.4313 $0.4647 $0.5023 $0.4333 $0.3994 $0.4207
NII/share $0.1651 $0.1766 $0.1596 $0.1953 $0.2077 $0.2101 $0.2154 $0.2199 $0.2393 $0.2775 $0.2247 $0.2097 $0.2211
NAV/share $6.86 $6.95 $6.90 $7.28 $7.56 $7.83 $8.01 $8.18 $8.43 $8.72 $8.74 $8.67 $8.57
Wt Av Yield 10.9% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.4% 11.6% 11.5% 11.2% 11.1% 11.0% 11.1% 11.1% 11.4%

At the end of Q4-16, the LTM NAV trend was down 13.86%. With the new Q4 numbers, the new calculation of that trend is down 9.3%.

Disclosure: I am/we are long AINV.