Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Enbridge Energy Partners Reports Q4/2016

|Includes: Enbridge Energy Partners L.P. (EEP)

There are three items in the spreadsheet below that require explanation. (1) I am getting the amount due GP - which I include with the debt amount - for the 10Q. The 10K has not been filed, so I lack that number for Q4-16. (2) Broker3 is subtracting only $10.5 million for the GP's take of DCF in 2016 - while I am getting a much higher number from the income statement. (3) What is a good fixed charge coverage ratio? I will use EPD as more source for a good number - and their Q4-16 ratio (or interest coverage ratio) was 5.49x. MMP is my example for very good - and its ratio was 6.56x. KMI is my example for 'troubled', and its ratio was 3.97x. EEP's number of 3.32x strongly indicates a 'credit metric problem' that will impact the setting of a lower distribution.

My EEP spreadsheet:

Enbridge Energy Partners or EEP metrics

  Q4-2016 Q3-2016 Q2-2016 Q1-2016 Q4-2015 Q3-2015 Q2-2015 Q1-2015 Q4-2014 Q3-2014 Q2-2014 Q1-2014 Q4-2013 Q3-2013
Revenues 1,250.8 1,120.6 1,048.9 1,061.6 1,136.7 1,267.7 1,313.1 1,428.6 2,071.7 1,942.3 1,871.1 2,079.6 1,962.0 1,789.4
Operating Income 227.3 (478.9) 261.7 268.0 196.8 254.8 -9.6 239.6 450.7 240.4 180.9 214.7 105.4 123.6
EBITDA 468.8 456.8 489.3 466.2 450.7 460.7 422.4 432.2 443.3 406.7 362.3 338.7 303.3 274.5
Total DCF dollars 220.9 214.7 262.7 244.5 214.5 248.8 231.6 253.7 214.4 210.1 194.5 190.3 145.5  
GPs DCF dollars 56.0 46.2 56.0 55.9 54.3 57.1 52.3 54.2 45.2 35.0 38.9 34.4 32.1 32.5
Net DCF dollars 164.9 168.5 206.7 188.6 160.2 191.7 179.3 199.5 169.2 175.1 155.6 155.9 113.4  
Units 351.04 349.1 347.1 344.7 342.6 341.1 339.9 332.6 329.8 328.5 327.6 326.4 325.2  
DCF/unit $0.4697 0.4827 0.5955 0.5471 0.4676 $0.5620 $0.5275 $0.5998 $0.5130 $0.5330 $0.4750 $0.4776 $0.3487  
Upcoming Distrib. $0.583 $0.583 $0.583 $0.583 $0.583 $0.583 $0.570 $0.570 $0.555 $0.555 $0.544 $0.544 $0.544 $0.544
Broker1_DCF/unit             $0.49 $0.56 $0.47 $0.46 $0.47 $0.47    
Broker2_DCF/unit           $0.590 $0.55 $0.61 $0.52 $0.49 $0.47 $0.47    
Broker3_DCF/unit   $0.59 $0.73 $0.68 $0.500 $0.580 $0.542 $0.597 $0.53 $0.52 $0.47 $0.47    
Broker4_DCF/unit   $0.47 $0.58 $0.54                    
LTM EBITDA 1,881.1 1,863.0 1,866.9 1,800.0 1,766.0 1,758.6 1,704.6 1,644.5 1,551.0
LTM DCF Dollars 942.8 936.4 966.5 939.4 948.6 948.5 909.8 872.7 809.3
LTM DCF per unit $1.8764 $2.0969 $2.1722 $2.1042 $2.1569 $2.2023 $2.1733 $2.1208 $1.9986
EEP projects 2016 adjusted EBITDA and DCF of $1.8 - $1.9 billion and $860 - $920 million
EEP projects 2017 adjusted EBITDA and DCF of $1.7 - $1.8 billion and $750 - $800 million
Total Debt + due GP   8,514.2 8,497.1 8,258.5 7,966.7        
Debt/EBITDA   4.57x 4.55x 4.59x 4.51x        
Interest expense 118.8 112.3 101.5 112.9 107.5 88.2 78.0 48.3 109.0
Preferred distributions 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5
Int + Preferred 141.3 134.8 124.0 135.4 130.0 110.7 100.5 70.8 131.5
Fixed Charge Coverage 3.32x 3.39x 3.95x 3.44x 3.47x 4.16x 4.20x 6.10x 3.37x
EEP has $1.2 billion in preferred units not included in the debt calculation

Disclosure: I am/we are long EPD, MMP.