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National Health Investors Reports Good Q4/2016

|Includes: National Health Investors Inc. (NHI)

From the earnings release:

Normalized FFO per diluted common share for the three months ended December 31, 2016, was $1.27, an increase of 8.5% over the same period in the prior year. Normalized FFO per diluted common share for the year ended December 31, 2016, was $4.87, an increase of 4.3% over the prior year. The 2017 Normalized FFO/share projection range is $5.06 to $5.12.

The projections from Nasdaq:

Fiscal
Year End
Consensus
FFO Forecast
High FFO
Forecast
Low FFO
Forecast
Number of
Estimates
Over the Last 4 Weeks
Number of Revisions
Up Down
Dec 2016 4.87 4.88 4.86 5 0 0
Dec 2017 5.15 5.22 5.08 5 0 0

Summary - Q4 FFO on target while the guidance was lower than current analyst projections.

NHI raised its dividend paid in Q2-17 from $0.90 to $0.95.

My spreadsheets

NHI

  National Health Investors Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14 Q2-14 Q1-14
  FFO 57.085 47.960 56.054 44.497 67.756 45.666 43.908 42.419 36.975 34.598 34.587 32.524
  FFO/share 1.43 1.21 1.46 1.16 1.80 1.22 1.17 1.13 1.07 1.05 1.05 0.98
  Normalized FFO 50.622 48.626 46.990 44.497 44.288 45.605 43.417 42.419 36.341 34.598 34.587 34.669
  Norm. FFO/share 1.27 1.23 1.22 1.16 1.17 1.21 1.16 1.13 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.05
  FAD 46.160 43.506 42.796 40.060 39.225 40.514 38.296 37.161 32.668 31.364 31.270 32.208
  FAD/share 1.18 1.10 1.11 1.07 1.04 1.08 1.02 1.03 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.97
  Current year FFO Guide * 5.09 4.86 4.86 4.85 * 4.85 4.64 4.57 4.55 * 4.55 4.19 4.18 4.17
  Current year AFFO Guide * 4.63 4.37 4.37 4.31 * 4.31 4.09 4.03 4.02 * 4.02 3.75 3.73 3.72
  RIDE-A EBITARM   7.121 7.857 7.397 6.805 7.168 6.903 6.810 6.787 5.995 6.005 6.041
  RIDE-A Growth             14.95% 12.73%        
  Fixed Charge Coverage 5.8x 5.8x 5.8x 5.7x 6.1x 6.1x 6.2x 6.5x 5.7x 5.8x 6.0x 8.0x
  Net Debt / EBITDA 4.4x 4.4x 4.4x 4.1x 4.1x 4.4x 4.1x 4.3x 4.8x 3.8x 3.7x 3.9x
  Average Cost of Debt 3.62% 3.63% 3.51% 3.73% 3.77% 3.35% 3.56% 3.54%        
  NHI does not produce SSNOI stats. It produces a SSNOI type number for its RIDE-A properties it calls RIDE-A EBITARM
  RIDE-A EBITDARM = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, rent and management fees
  Investments 2.293 2.280 2.226 1.992 1.970 1.961 1.851 1.869 1.840 1.352
  Norm.FFO/Investments 8.83% 8.53% 8.44% 8.94% 8.99% 9.30% 9.38% 9.08% 7.90% 10.24%
  Revenues 65.027 63.251 61.204 59.018 58.703 58.282 56.313 55.751 45.734 44.478
  Revenue/Investments 11.34% 11.10% 11.00% 11.85% 11.92% 11.89% 12.17% 11.93% 9.94% 13.16%
  Adjusted Income 35.013 34.599 33.326 31.685 31.783 33.600 31.216 30.150 28.277 25.250
  Adj Inc/Investments 6.11% 6.07% 5.99% 6.36% 6.45% 6.85% 6.75% 6.45% 6.15% 7.47%

Summary - NHI predominantly owns Senior Housing properties with some mortgages and SNFs. It owns stuff that generates 8.5% normalized FFO to investment ratio and the average cap rates on acquisitions mirror that number. The Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is superior - as is the fixed change coverage. Due to superior credit metrics, its cost of debt is relatively low.

Last three year FFO growth, FAD growth and dividend growth are superior to sector average.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.