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Transportation - 3 Data Intensive CAGR, RRR (Via Historical Projection Accuracy) & "Yield + CAGR - RRR"

If you have not read and understood these spreadsheets in my published articles - then please ignore what follows. This data is provided so that the 'cognoscenti' can have fresh 2017 data.

Since this is a blog posting - I am not providing the text to give explanations of the data. But for those who have read my prior articles where these spreadsheets have appeared should know how to use them.

I used the trends in EPS growth and dividend growth along with analyst CAGRs and the div/EPS ratio to set my CAGRs. Changing div/EPS ratios signal that trends are in danger of losing their consistency. Rising div/EPS means falling dividend growth.

Long term metric trends & third party growth projections - two
The average calculation for growth is for ten years - for 2007 through 2017
The first avereage is the sum of changes for each individual year over ten year period - with that result divided by 10
The 2nd average is the difference between the current and beginning number, divided by the beginning number - with that result divided by 10
The dividend data is based on the Q1 dividend for the year. Annual dividends are four times the Q1 dividend.
At the far right is My CAGR, Yahoo's CAGR, my broker's CAGR, the Last 3 Year average of Dividend growth and the Last 5 Year average of EPS Growth.
PI-CAGRs are price implied CAGRs derived from two differing formulas using yields and P/E ratios
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
ARCB EPS 2.23 1.14 0.10 0.10 0.23 0.10 0.61 1.82 1.78 0.93 1.56 1.93     My CAGR 8.00% RRR-yield 9.97%
  Growth   -48.88 -91.23 0.00 130.00 -56.52 510.00 198.36 -2.20 -47.75 67.74 23.72 56.24% -3.00% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 10.87%
  Div 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.32 0.32       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 7.90%
  Growth   0.00 0.00 -80.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 33.33 0.00   5.33% -4.67% Last 5 EPS 47.97% Yahoo Q4-16 4.70%
  div/eps 27% 53% 600% 120% 52% 120% 20% 7% 13% 34% 21%   103.95%   Last 3 Div 44.44% Yahoo Q3-16 8.80%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
CHRW EPS 1.86 2.08 2.13 2.33 2.62 3.67 2.65 3.05 3.51 3.59 3.68 3.96     My CAGR 8.00% RRR-yield 8.22%
  Growth   11.83 2.40 9.39 12.45 40.08 -27.79 15.09 15.08 2.28 2.51 7.61 10.24% 9.78% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 11.98%
  Div 0.72 0.88 0.96 1.00 1.16 1.32 1.40 1.40 1.52 1.72 1.80       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 7.30%
  Growth   22.22 9.09 4.17 16.00 13.79 6.06 0.00 8.57 13.16 4.65   9.77% 15.00% Last 5 EPS 8.51% Yahoo Q4-16 7.00%
  div/eps 39% 42% 45% 43% 44% 36% 53% 46% 43% 48% 49%   44.94%   Last 3 Div 8.79% Yahoo Q3-16 8.60%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
CNI EPS 4.28 3.25 3.74 2.24 2.70 3.06 3.06 3.76 4.44 3.51 3.78 4.13     My CAGR 6.50% RRR-yield 7.67%
  Growth   -24.07 15.08 -40.11 20.54 13.33 0.00 22.88 18.09 -20.95 7.69 9.26 3.22% -1.17% Brk Q1-17 10.00% P/E Ratio 8.26%
  Div 0.36 0.46 0.39 0.52 0.67 0.75 0.83 0.91 1.00 1.05 1.17       Brk Q4-16 10.00% Yahoo Q1-17 6.80%
  Growth   30.34 -15.52 33.67 27.86 12.24 10.90 8.87 10.13 5.00 11.43   13.49% 22.87% Last 5 EPS 7.39% Yahoo Q4-16 6.20%
  div/eps 8% 14% 10% 23% 25% 25% 27% 24% 23% 30% 31%   23.23%   Last 3 Div 8.85% Yahoo Q3-16 6.10%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
CP EPS 6.12 3.28 3.50 3.85 3.34 2.79 6.42 8.50 10.10 7.87 8.76 9.83     My CAGR 8.00% RRR-yield 8.97%
  Growth   -46.41 6.71 10.00 -13.25 -16.47 130.11 32.40 18.82 -22.08 11.31 12.21 14.18% 4.31% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 7.09%
  Div 0.78 0.98 0.81 0.97 1.11 1.21 1.37 1.25 1.12 1.07 1.54       Brk Q4-16 10.00% Yahoo Q1-17 8.80%
  Growth   26.80 -17.89 19.80 14.46 9.03 13.25 -8.48 -10.54 -4.64 44.19   8.60% 9.85% Last 5 EPS 10.53% Yahoo Q4-16 8.20%
  div/eps 13% 30% 23% 25% 33% 43% 21% 15% 11% 14% 18%   23.30%   Last 3 Div 9.67% Yahoo Q3-16 8.70%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
CSX EPS 0.96 1.24 0.96 1.35 1.67 1.79 1.83 1.92 2.00 1.81 2.01 2.27     My CAGR 6.40% RRR-yield 8.02%
  Growth   29.17 -22.58 40.63 23.70 7.19 2.23 4.92 4.17 -9.50 11.05 12.94 7.59% 10.94% Brk Q1-17 8.00% P/E Ratio 13.65%
  Div 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.32 0.48 0.56 0.60 0.64 0.72 0.72       Brk Q4-16 8.00% Yahoo Q1-17 9.70%
  Growth   0.00 0.00 0.00 33.33 50.00 16.67 7.14 6.67 12.50 0.00   12.63% 20.00% Last 5 EPS 4.71% Yahoo Q4-16 6.00%
  div/eps 25% 19% 25% 18% 19% 27% 31% 31% 32% 40% 36%   27.76%   Last 3 Div 6.39% Yahoo Q3-16 5.40%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
EXPD EPS 1.21 1.37 1.11 1.59 1.79 1.57 1.68 1.92 2.39 2.35 2.48 2.75     My CAGR 6.50% RRR-yield 8.58%
  Growth   13.22 -18.98 43.24 12.58 -12.29 7.01 14.29 24.48 -1.67 5.53 10.89 9.60% 10.50% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 12.78%
  Div 0.28 0.32 0.38 0.40 0.50 0.56 0.60 0.64 0.64 0.72 0.80       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 3.60%
  Growth   14.29 18.75 5.26 25.00 12.00 7.14 6.67 0.00 12.50 11.11   11.27% 18.57% Last 5 EPS 10.70% Yahoo Q4-16 6.40%
  div/eps 23% 23% 34% 25% 28% 36% 36% 33% 27% 31% 32%   30.51%   Last 3 Div 7.87% Yahoo Q3-16 8.80%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
FDX EPS 6.48 3.60 0.31 3.76 4.57 6.41 6.23 6.75 8.95 10.80 11.97 13.47     My CAGR 9.50% RRR-yield 9.17%
  Growth   -44.44 -91.39 1112.90 21.54 40.26 -2.81 8.35 32.59 20.67 10.83 12.53 110.88% 8.47% Brk Q1-17 10.00% P/E Ratio 6.18%
  Div 0.36 0.40 0.44 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.56 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.60       Brk Q4-16 13.00% Yahoo Q1-17 10.60%
  Growth   11.11 10.00 0.00 9.09 8.33 7.69 7.14 33.33 25.00 60.00   17.17% 34.44% Last 5 EPS 16.99% Yahoo Q4-16 10.60%
  div/eps 6% 11% 142% 12% 11% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 13%   23.28%   Last 3 Div 39.44% Yahoo Q3-16 10.50%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
FWRD EPS 1.50 1.47 0.34 1.10 1.60 1.50 1.77 1.96 2.25 2.08 2.33 2.63     My CAGR 10.50% RRR-yield 8.80%
  Growth   -2.00 -76.87 223.53 45.45 -6.25 18.00 10.73 14.80 -7.56 12.02 12.88 21.66% 5.53% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 11.49%
  Div 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.40 0.40 0.48 0.48 0.60       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 12.60%
  Growth   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 42.86 0.00 20.00 0.00 25.00   8.79% 11.43% Last 5 EPS 8.57% Yahoo Q4-16 12.60%
  div/eps 19% 19% 82% 25% 18% 19% 23% 20% 21% 23% 26%   27.62%   Last 3 Div 15.00% Yahoo Q3-16 12.60%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
GATX EPS 3.44 3.88 1.70 1.72 2.35 2.88 3.50 4.48 5.37 5.77 4.48 4.10     My CAGR 6.50% RRR-yield 7.18%
  Growth   12.79 -56.19 1.18 36.63 22.55 21.53 28.00 19.87 7.45 -22.36 -8.48 12.36% 3.02% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 3.30%
  Div 0.96 1.08 1.12 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.24 1.32 1.52 1.60 1.68       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 15.00%
  Growth   12.50 3.70 0.00 3.57 3.45 3.33 6.45 15.15 5.26 5.00   5.84% 7.50% Last 5 EPS 4.90% Yahoo Q4-16 15.00%
  div/eps 28% 28% 66% 65% 49% 42% 35% 29% 28% 28% 37%   40.83%   Last 3 Div 8.47% Yahoo Q3-16 15.00%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
JBHT EPS 1.55 1.56 1.05 1.56 2.11 2.59 2.87 3.16 3.66 3.73 4.16 4.77     My CAGR 10.00% RRR-yield 8.59%
  Growth   0.65 -32.69 48.57 35.26 22.75 10.81 10.10 15.82 1.91 11.53 14.66 12.08% 16.84% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 13.79%
  Div 0.36 0.40 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.56 0.60 0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 12.40%
  Growth   11.11 10.00 9.09 8.33 7.69 7.14 33.33 5.00 4.76 4.55   10.10% 15.56% Last 5 EPS 10.81% Yahoo Q4-16 12.00%
  div/eps 23% 26% 42% 31% 25% 22% 21% 25% 23% 24% 22%   25.95%   Last 3 Div 4.77% Yahoo Q3-16 13.00%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
KSU EPS 1.64 1.86 0.61 1.57 2.99 3.43 3.98 4.82 4.49 4.48 5.06 5.63     My CAGR 9.00% RRR-yield 8.48%
  Growth   13.41 -67.20 157.38 90.45 14.72 16.03 21.11 -6.85 -0.22 12.95 11.26 28.40% 20.85% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 7.17%
  Div 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.86 1.12 1.32 1.32 1.32       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 11.30%
  Growth               30.23 17.86 0.00 0.00       Last 5 EPS 7.65% Yahoo Q4-14 15.90%
  Div/EPS       0% 0% 22% 22% 23% 29% 29% 26%   15.20%   Last 3 Div 5.95% Yahoo Q3-16 9.60%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
KNX EPS 0.72 0.66 0.60 0.70 0.74 0.80 0.86 1.25 1.47 1.17 1.18 1.42     My CAGR 8.00% RRR-yield 9.27%
  Growth   -8.33 -9.09 16.67 5.71 8.11 7.50 45.35 17.60 -20.41 0.85 20.34 4.88% 6.39% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 17.80%
  Div 0.12 0.12 0.16 0.20 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 6.10%
  Growth   0.00 33.33 25.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00   7.83% 10.00% Last 5 EPS 12.75% Yahoo Q4-16 5.80%
  div/eps 17% 18% 27% 29% 32% 30% 28% 19% 16% 21% 20%   24.01%   Last 3 Div 0.00% Yahoo Q3-16 9.30%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
LSTR EPS 1.99 2.10 1.37 1.77 2.38 2.77 2.42 3.07 3.37 3.25 3.46 3.90     My CAGR 11.00% RRR-yield 9.59%
  Growth   5.53 -34.76 29.20 34.46 16.39 -12.64 26.86 9.77 -3.56 6.46 12.72 7.44% 7.39% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 15.22%
  Div 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.24 0.28 0.32 0.36       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 12.70%
  Growth   26.67 5.26 12.50 11.11 10.00 9.09 0.00 16.67 14.29 12.50   11.81% 20.00% Last 5 EPS 10.45% Yahoo Q4-16 11.60%
  div/eps 6% 7% 12% 10% 8% 8% 10% 8% 8% 10% 10%   9.17%   Last 3 Div 14.48% Yahoo Q3-16 12.50%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
MATX EPS 2.52 1.69 0.80 1.70 1.09 1.22 1.39 1.63 2.89 2.89 1.87 1.97     My CAGR 5.50% RRR-yield 8.89%
  Growth   -32.94 -52.66 112.50 -35.88 11.93 13.93 17.27 77.30 0.00 -35.29 5.35 12.92% -2.58% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 10.25%
  Div 0.48 0.56 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.72 0.76       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 5.00%
  Growth   15.83 8.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.66 6.67 6.25 5.88 5.56   4.82% 5.83% Last 5 EPS 12.92% Yahoo Q4-16 6.40%
  div/eps 19% 33% 76% 36% 55% 50% 43% 39% 24% 25% 41%   42.04%   Last 3 Div 5.90% Yahoo Q3-16 5.00%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
NSC EPS 3.68 4.52 2.76 4.00 5.45 5.37 5.85 6.39 5.10 5.62 6.15 6.85     My CAGR 9.00% RRR-yield 7.51%
  Growth   22.83 -38.94 44.93 36.25 -1.47 8.94 9.23 -20.19 10.20 9.43 11.38 7.49% 6.71% Brk Q1-17 8.00% P/E Ratio 9.46%
  Div 0.88 1.16 1.36 1.36 1.60 1.88 2.00 2.16 2.36 2.36 2.44       Brk Q4-16 9.00% Yahoo Q1-17 11.90%
  Growth   31.82 17.24 0.00 17.65 17.50 6.38 8.00 9.26 0.00 3.39   11.12% 17.73% Last 5 EPS 4.01% Yahoo Q4-16 10.80%
  div/eps 24% 26% 49% 34% 29% 35% 34% 34% 46% 42% 40%   36.92%   Last 3 Div 4.22% Yahoo Q3-16 10.80%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
R EPS 4.46 4.55 1.74 2.37 3.31 3.91 4.88 5.58 6.13 5.77 5.21 5.85     My CAGR 7.00% RRR-yield 7.42%
  Growth   2.02 -61.76 36.21 39.66 18.13 24.81 14.34 9.86 -5.87 -9.71 12.28 8.62% 1.68% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 4.51%
  Div 0.84 0.92 0.92 1.08 1.08 1.16 1.24 1.36 1.48 1.64 1.76       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 15.00%
  Growth   9.52 0.00 17.39 0.00 7.41 6.90 9.68 8.82 10.81 7.32   7.78% 10.95% Last 5 EPS 4.18% Yahoo Q4-16 15.00%
  div/eps 19% 20% 53% 46% 33% 30% 25% 24% 24% 28% 34%   31.71%   Last 3 Div 8.98% Yahoo Q3-16 15.00%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
TRN EPS 1.86 1.74 0.10 0.39 0.89 1.58 2.34 4.19 4.87 2.25 1.26 1.10     My CAGR 6.00% RRR-yield 10.47%
  Growth   -6.45 -94.25 290.00 128.21 77.53 48.10 79.06 16.23 -53.80 -44.00 -12.70 51.75% -3.23% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 14.89%
  Div 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.22 0.30 0.40 0.44 0.44       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 10.00%
  Growth   16.67 14.29 0.00 0.00 12.50 22.22 36.36 33.33 10.00 0.00   14.54% 26.67% Last 5 EPS -3.04% Yahoo Q4-16 10.00%
  div/eps 6% 8% 160% 41% 18% 11% 9% 7% 8% 20% 35%   31.77%   Last 3 Div 14.44% Yahoo Q3-16 10.00%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
UNP EPS 1.73 2.26 1.87 2.76 3.36 4.13 4.71 5.75 5.49 5.07 5.64 6.33     My CAGR 8.00% RRR-yield 7.30%
  Growth   30.64 -17.26 47.59 21.74 22.92 14.04 22.08 -4.52 -7.65 11.24 12.23 14.73% 22.60% Brk Q1-17 9.00% P/E Ratio 8.97%
  Div 0.35 0.44 0.54 0.54 0.76 1.20 1.38 1.82 2.20 2.20 2.42       Brk Q4-16 9.00% Yahoo Q1-17 11.20%
  Growth   25.71 22.73 0.00 40.74 57.89 15.00 31.88 20.88 0.00 10.00   22.48% 59.14% Last 5 EPS 6.68% Yahoo Q4-16 6.90%
  div/eps 20% 19% 29% 20% 23% 29% 29% 32% 40% 43% 43%   30.69%   Last 3 Div 10.29% Yahoo Q3-16 8.80%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
UPS EPS 0.36 2.94 2.14 3.48 3.84 0.83 4.57 4.75 5.43 5.75 5.95 6.47     My CAGR 8.00% RRR-yield 6.19%
  Growth   716.67 -27.21 62.62 10.34 -78.39 450.60 3.94 14.32 5.89 3.48 8.74 106.81% 155.28% Brk Q1-17 6.00% P/E Ratio 7.27%
  Div 1.68 1.80 1.80 1.88 2.08 2.28 2.48 2.68 2.92 3.12 3.32       Brk Q4-16 8.00% Yahoo Q1-17 8.50%
  Growth   7.14 0.00 4.44 10.64 9.62 8.77 8.06 8.96 6.85 6.41   7.09% 9.76% Last 5 EPS 7.27% Yahoo Q4-16 9.00%
  div/eps 467% 61% 84% 54% 54% 275% 54% 56% 54% 54% 56%   80.27%   Last 3 Div 7.40% Yahoo Q3-16 9.60%
Co.   07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGR & Yahoo
WAB EPS 1.12 1.34 1.20 1.28 1.86 2.59 3.01 3.62 4.10 4.10 3.97 4.31     My CAGR 6.00% RRR-yield 8.84%
  Growth   19.64 -10.45 6.67 45.31 39.25 16.22 20.27 13.26 0.00 -3.17 8.56 17.74% 25.45% Brk Q1-17 0.00% P/E Ratio 11.41%
  Div 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.16 0.24 0.32 0.40       Brk Q4-16 0.00% Yahoo Q1-17 4.90%
  Growth   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 200.00 66.67 60.00 50.00 33.33 25.00   43.50% 190.00% Last 5 EPS 7.78% Yahoo Q4-16 4.90%
  div/eps 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 8% 10%   3.96%   Last 3 Div 36.11% Yahoo Q3-16 15.00%

The Importance of the Dividends/EPS since 2004 The following companies have dividend/EPS ratios under 25%: CNI , CP , CSX , FDX , WAB . Their mean dividend growth for the 5 for this period is 19.5%.
The following companies have dividend/EPS ratios over 25% but under 35%: EXPD , FWRD , JBHT , NSC , R , TRN , UNP . Their mean dividend growth for the period is 19.75%.
The following companies - weeding out CHRW - had dividend/EPS ratios over 35% : ARCB , GATX , MATX , UPS . Their mean dividend growth for period is 3.28%.

Intra-year Changes in EPS estimates during the Year:
Some companies have assets or business models that produce more predictable EPS projections
  2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Accuracy 17 EPS
Company and Ticker Beginning Ending Change Beginning Ending Change Beginning Ending Change Beginning Ending Change Beginning Current Change Rating Spread
ArcBest Corporation ARCB 2.00 0.61 -69.5% 2.00 1.82 -9.0% 2.51 1.78 -29.1% 2.36 0.93 -60.6% 1.58 1.56 -1.3% 5.0 39.8%
CH Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW 2.65 2.65 0.0% 2.80 3.05 8.9% 3.36 3.51 4.5% 3.76 3.59 -4.5% 3.71 3.68 -0.8% 1.0 18.1%
Canadian National Railway CNI 3.06 3.06 0.0% 3.49 3.76 7.7% 4.22 4.44 5.2% 4.72 3.51 -25.6% 3.64 3.78 3.8% 3.0 7.7%
Canadian Pacific Railway CP 6.42 6.42 0.0% 8.53 8.50 -0.4% 11.13 10.10 -9.3% 11.52 7.87 -31.7% 8.95 8.76 -2.1% 4.0 7.5%
CSX Corp. CSX 1.83 1.83 0.0% 1.90 1.92 1.1% 2.17 2.00 -7.8% 2.04 1.81 -11.3% 1.99 2.01 1.0% 3.0 20.4%
Expeditors International EXPD 1.68 1.68 0.0% 1.90 1.92 1.1% 2.10 2.39 13.8% 2.51 2.35 -6.4% 2.49 2.48 -0.4% 1.5 8.5%
FedEx Corporation FDX 6.23 6.23 0.0% 6.98 6.75 -3.3% 8.98 8.95 -0.3% 10.57 10.80 2.2% 11.98 11.97 -0.1% 1.0 12.1%
Forward Air Corp. FWRD 1.77 1.77 0.0% 2.18 1.96 -10.1% 2.41 2.25 -6.6% 2.61 2.08 -20.3% 2.33 2.33 0.0% 3.0 26.4%
GATX Corp. GATX 3.50 3.50 0.0% 3.98 4.48 12.6% 5.12 5.37 4.9% 5.28 5.77 9.3% 4.48 4.48 0.0% 1.0 3.5%
JB Hunt Transport JBHT 2.87 2.87 0.0% 3.33 3.16 -5.1% 3.63 3.66 0.8% 4.06 3.73 -8.1% 4.19 4.16 -0.7% 1.5 10.7%
Kansas City Southern KSU 3.98 3.98 0.0% 4.60 4.82 4.8% 5.51 4.49 -18.5% 4.76 4.48 -5.9% 5.17 5.06 -2.1% 3.0 12.3%
Knight Transportation Inc. KNX 0.86 0.86 0.0% 0.99 1.25 26.3% 1.37 1.47 7.3% 1.48 1.17 -20.9% 1.30 1.18 -9.2% 3.5 17.1%
Landstar System, Inc. LSTR 2.42 2.42 0.0% 2.81 3.07 9.3% 3.47 3.37 -2.9% 3.60 3.25 -9.7% 3.45 3.46 0.3% 2.0 6.2%
Matson, Inc. MATX 1.39 1.39 0.0% 1.34 1.63 21.6% 1.68 2.89 72.0% 2.84 2.89 1.8% 2.04 1.87 -8.3% 3.0 1.7%
Norfolk Southern Corp. NSC 5.85 5.85 0.0% 6.45 6.39 -0.9% 7.26 5.10 -29.8% 5.73 5.62 -1.9% 6.09 6.15 1.0% 3.5 17.8%
Ryder System. Inc. R 4.88 4.88 0.0% 5.42 5.58 3.0% 6.50 6.13 -5.7% 6.79 5.77 -15.0% 5.97 5.21 -12.7% 3.5 2.9%
Trinity Industries Inc. TRN 4.88 2.34 -52.0% 4.19 4.19 0.0% 4.42 4.87 10.2% 3.74 2.25 -39.8% 1.25 1.26 0.8% 5.0 24.9%
Union Pacific Corp. UNP 4.71 4.71 0.0% 5.41 5.75 6.3% 6.48 5.49 -15.3% 6.00 5.07 -15.5% 5.58 5.64 1.1% 4.0 23.7%
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS 4.57 4.57 0.0% 5.23 4.75 -9.2% 5.65 5.43 -3.9% 5.77 5.75 -0.3% 6.17 5.95 -3.6% 2.5 4.7%
Westinghouse Air Brake WAB 2.15 3.01 40.0% 2.93 3.62 23.5% 4.05 4.10 1.2% 4.47 4.10 -8.3% 4.29 3.97 -7.5% 2.0 1.7%

The message in the data - If you can not trust the projections from ARCB and R - then you have not way of getting an accurate valuation assessment - so don't buy them. Companies with earnings disappointments under perform.

Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations

The Total Return projection is the yield + dividend CAGR. LT Debt/Mkt Cap is the long term debt to market cap ratio with the numbers gathered from Yahoo Finance's 'key statistics' page. EPS Accr is short the historical EPS accuracy. For this sector, my accuracy stat is based on the numbers of years in the last ten that had negative EPS changes. Consensus Ratings are also gathered from Yahoo Finance. The Div/Earn is the annualized Q4-16 dividend to 2016 EPS projection ratio.


Company Q1-17 My Total Bonds LT Debt/ EPS My Total Rtn Consensus Price Implied CAGR Div Price
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Mkt Cap Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings RRR-Yld P/E /Earn /Earn

ArcBest Corporation ARCB 1.03% 8.00% 9.03% none 32.97% 5.00 11.00 -1.97 2.8 9.97 9.78% 20.51 19.87
CH Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW 2.28% 8.00% 10.28% none 11.67% 1.00 10.50 -0.22 2.9 8.22 10.79% 48.91 21.48
Canadian National Railway CNI 1.63% 6.50% 8.13% A 14.65% 3.00 9.30 -1.17 2.8 7.67 7.43% 30.95 18.96
Canadian Pacific Railway CP 1.03% 8.00% 9.03% BBB 30.57% 4.00 10.00 -0.97 1.9 8.97 6.38% 17.58 17.09
CSX Corp. CSX 1.48% 6.40% 7.88% BBB+ 30.36% 3.00 9.50 -1.62 2.2 8.02 12.28% 35.82 24.15
Expeditors International EXPD 1.42% 6.50% 7.92% none 0.00% 1.50 10.00 -2.08 3.2 8.58 11.50% 32.26 22.78
FedEx Corporation FDX 0.83% 9.50% 10.33% BBB 27.09% 1.00 10.00 0.33 1.9 9.17 5.56% 13.37 16.18
Forward Air Corp. FWRD 1.20% 10.50% 11.70% none 2.72% 3.00 10.00 1.70 2.2 8.80 10.34% 25.75 21.49
GATX Corp. GATX 2.82% 6.50% 9.32% BBB 175.83% 1.00 10.00 -0.68 3.0 7.18 2.97% 37.50 13.30
JB Hunt Transport JBHT 0.91% 10.00% 10.91% BBB+ 8.66% 1.50 9.50 1.41 2.2 8.59 12.41% 22.12 24.29
Kansas City Southern KSU 1.52% 9.00% 10.52% BBB- 29.01% 3.00 10.00 0.52 2.5 8.48 6.45% 26.09 17.17
Knight Transportation Inc. KNX 0.73% 8.00% 8.73% none 1.98% 3.50 10.00 -1.27 3.1 9.27 16.02% 20.34 27.80
Landstar System, Inc. LSTR 0.41% 11.00% 11.41% none 4.58% 2.00 10.00 1.41 2.9 9.59 13.70% 10.40 25.22
Matson, Inc. MATX 2.11% 5.50% 7.61% none 53.07% 3.00 11.00 -3.39 2.0 8.89 9.23% 40.64 19.25
Norfolk Southern Corp. NSC 1.99% 9.00% 10.99% BBB+ 32.27% 3.50 9.50 1.49 2.7 7.51 8.52% 39.67 19.96
Ryder System. Inc. R 2.28% 7.00% 9.28% BBB 136.97% 3.50 9.70 -0.42 2.1 7.42 4.06% 33.78 14.81
Trinity Industries Inc. TRN 1.53% 6.00% 7.53% BBB 74.05% 5.00 12.00 -4.47 3.0 10.47 13.40% 34.92 22.89
Union Pacific Corp. UNP 2.20% 8.00% 10.20% A 18.55% 4.00 9.50 0.70 2.4 7.30 8.07% 42.91 19.47
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS 3.11% 8.00% 11.11% A- 15.29% 2.50 9.30 1.81 2.6 6.19 6.54% 55.80 17.97
Westinghouse Air Brake WAB 0.46% 6.00% 6.46% BBB 10.96% 2.00 9.30 -2.84 1.9 8.84 10.27% 10.08 22.11

Average   1.55% 7.87% 9.42%   35.56%       2.52 8.46 9.29   20.31

Showing three 'RRR - yield' price implied CAGR calculations:
ARCB has a RRR of 11.00 and a yield of 1.03. The difference between the RRR and yield numbers is 9.97.
CHRW has a RRR of 10.50 and a yield of 2.28. The difference between the RRR and yield numbers is 8.22.
CNI has a RRR of 9.30 and a yield of 1.63. The difference between the RRR and yield numbers is 7.67.

Showing three price implied CAGR calculations:
ARCB has a P/E of 19.87 and a RRR of 11.00 and a P/E adjustment of 9.00. The difference between the P/E and adjustment numbers is 10.87 - and after the 0.90 modification, the number for the P/E based price implied CAGR is 21.90.
CHRW has a P/E of 21.48 and a RRR of 10.50 and a P/E adjustment of 9.50. The difference between the P/E and adjustment numbers is 11.98 - and after the 0.90 modification, the number for the P/E based price implied CAGR is 11.27.
CNI has a P/E of 18.96 and a RRR of 9.30 and a P/E adjustment of 10.70. The difference between the P/E and adjustment numbers is 8.26 - and after the 0.90 modification, the number for the P/E based price implied CAGR is 8.74.

Disclosure: I am/we are long NSC, UNP.