Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Main Street Capital Reports Great Q4/2016

|Includes: Main Street Capital (MAIN)

TII exceeded projections. NII/share was a beat by a penny - but portfolio gains of $0.3985, NII above the dividend and share offerings over NAV raised the NAV from $21.62 to $22.10. The NII/TII ratio was 64.98%! Debt per share rose while the interest expense to TII ratio was flat. MAIN clearly reports Q4 numbers.

The Yahoo Finance consensus analyst projections:

  Current Qtr. (Dec 2016) Next Qtr. (Mar 2017) Current Year Next Year
No. of Analysts 8 8 8 8
Avg. Estimate 0.56 0.57 2.24 2.32
Low Estimate 0.54 0.54 2.19 2.16
High Estimate 0.59 0.61 2.32 2.57
Year Ago EPS 0.57 0.54 2.18 2.24
Revenue Estimate Current Qtr. (Dec 2016) Next Qtr. (Mar 2017) Current Year Next Year
No. of Analysts 5 5 6 6
Avg. Estimate 45.96M 46.89M 177.39M 196.67M
Low Estimate 43.74M 45.42M 175.24M 185.58M
High Estimate 47.99M 48.5M 179.5M 205.5M
Year Ago Sales 43.49M 42.01M 164.59M 177.39M

My spreadsheets:

  Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14 Q2-14 Q1-14 Q4-13 Q3-13 Q2-13 Q1-13
Realized & Unrealized Gains 21.311 12.096 5.036 -12.615 -22.659 -10.430 10.125 11.642 -6.452 -0.356 10.147 8.160 -5.008 11.052 6.954 8.397
Realized & Unrealized Gains/share $0.3985 $0.2299 $0.0979 -$0.2496 -$0.4511 -$0.2084 $0.2030 $0.2526 - $0.1434 - $0.0079 $0.2295 $0.2045 - $0.1259 $0.2975 $0.1998 $0.2420
Main Street Capital Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14 Q2-14 Q1-14 Q4-13
Total investment income 46.830 46.599 42.902 42.006 43.353 42.379 41.308 37.179 38.757 36.351 34.877 30.776 33.393
Net investment income 30.432 30.557 27.648 27.164 28.520 27.861 27.201 23.491 26.329 24.877 23.578 20.739 22.831
Investments @ fair value 1.997 1.920 1.888 1.819 1.800 1.867 1.790 1.747 1.572 1.497 1.433 1.320 1.299
Wt Av Share Count 53.473 52.613 51.441 50.550 50.229 50.037 49.883 46.080 44.992 44.911 44.217 39.899 39.762
TII/share $0.8758 $0.8857 $0.8340 $0.8318 $0.8631 $0.8470 $0.8281 $0.8068 $0.8614 $0.8094 $0.7888 $0.7713 $0.8398
NII/share $0.5691 $0.5808 $0.5375 $0.5374 $0.5678 0.5568 $0.5453 $0.5098 $0.5852 $0.5539 $0.5332 $0.5198 $0.5742
NAV/share $22.10 $21.62 $21.11 $21.18 $21.24 $21.79 $21.84 $21.87 $20.85 $21.08 $21.03 $20.14 $19.89
Wt Av Yield - LMM 12.5% 12.5% 12.4% 12.4% 12.2% 12.3% 12.8% 13.1% 13.2% 13.5% 14.9% 15.1% 14.7%
Wt Av Yield - MM 8.5% 8.4% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0% 8.0% 7.9% 7.9% 7.8% 7.5% 7.5% 7.6% 7.8%
Wt Av Yield - Private 9.6% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 9.8% 9.9% 10.1% 10.4% 11.3% 11.1% 11.3%
Yield - 4 times TII/Inv 9.38% 9.71% 9.09% 9.23% 9.66% 9.08% 9.23% 8.51% 9.86% 9.71% 9.74% 9.33% 10.28%
Main Street Capital Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14 Q2-14 Q1-14
Debt 848.258 809.135 839.334 795.461 780.398 835.344 511.963 653.284 706.604 600.511 557.761 539.921
Debt/share 15.8633 15.3790 16.3164 15.7361 15.5368 16.6945 10.2633 14.1772 15.7334 13.3771 12.6142 13.5352
Debt/share to NAV 78.78% 71.13% 77.29% 74.30% 73.15% 76.62% 46.99% 64.82% 75.46% 63.43% 59.98% 67.21%
Interest expense 8.619 8.573 8.255 8.182 8.360 8.302 7.657 7.796 6.876 5.954 5.473 5.286
Interest expense/share 0.1612 0.1629 0.1605 0.1619 0.1664 0.1659 0.1535 0.1692 0.1528 0.1326 0.1238 0.1325
Interest expense/TII 18.40% 18.40% 19.24% 19.48% 19.28% 19.59% 20.59% 20.97% 17.74% 16.38% 15.69% 17.17%
Annualized Int exp/Debt 4.06% 4.24% 3.93% 4.11% 4.28% 3.98% 5.98% 4.77% 3.89% 3.97% 3.92% 3.92%
PWAY - Int exp/Debt 532 bps 547 bps 516 bps 512 bps 538 bps 510 bps 325 bps 374 bps 597 bps 574 bps 582 bps 541 bps

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.