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LTC Reports Q4/2016

|Includes: LTC Properties Inc. (LTC)

LTC reported NAREIT FFO of $3.06/share compared to a consensus projection of $3.05 (good news). LTC provided 2017 guidance of $3.08 to $3.10 share compared to analyst expectations of $3.19 (bad news - but note the history of growing intra-year guidance).

My spreadsheets:

LTC

  LTC Properties Inc Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14 Q2-14 Q1-14
  FFO 30.652 29.696 29.180 28.318 27.814 26.073 23.961 23.390 22.818 22.516 22.500 22.381
  FFO/share 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.63
  Normalized FFO 30.652 29.696 29.180 28.318 27.814 26.610 24.361 23.390 22.818 22.516 22.500  
  Norm FFO/share 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.73 0.67 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.64  
  FAD 25.588 27.168 26.666 25.192 24.794 23.739 22.134 21.728 22.676 22.465 22.425 22.286
  FAD/share 0.65 0.69 0.70 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.61 0.60 0.64 0.63 0.63 0.63
  Current year FFO Guide * 3.09   3.02 3.07 * 2.97 2.77 2.75 2.67 * 2.58 2.56 2.57 2.57
  Fixed Charge Coverage 4.1x 5.4x 5.0x 5.1x 5.7x 5.9x 6.0x 5.9x 6.0x 6.2x 6.3x 6.7x
  Net Debt / EBITDA 4.1x 3.9x 4.2x 4.4x 4.3x 4.4x 4.1x 2.9x 2.6x 2.9x 2.9x 3.0x
  Real Property % of Port 84.9% 84.5% 84.5% 84.5% 84.5% 84.8% 82.8% 85.6% 85.0% 84.8% 84.9% 84.9%
  Loans % of Portfolio 15.1% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.5% 15.2% 17.2% 14.4% 15.0% 15.2% 15.1% 15.1%
  SNF % of Revenues 54.6% 55.3% 56.2% 57.2% 57.5% 58.6% 58.8% 59.1% 59.4% 56.6% 55.0% 54.6%
  ALF % of Revenues 41.2% 40.3% 39.4% 37.8% 37.1% 35.7% 35.3% 35.0% 34.5% 37.7% 39.0% 39.7%
  Debt + Preferred 609.391 589.262 606.734 608.256 571.872 517.967 396.467 352.467 319.084 339.633 332.133 331.133
  Debt/Share 4 14.98 15.90 16.24 15.31 13.87 10.55 9.45 8.69 9.27 9.07 9.00
  Share Count 39.260 39.335 38.164 37.459 37.358 37.352 37.563 37.292 36.698 36.629 36.621 36.806
  Total Investments 1.297 1.260 1.282 1.218 1.189 1.134 0.977 0.937 0.892 0.903 0.896 0.894
  Debt/Investments 4 46.8% 47.3% 49.9% 48.1% 45.7% 40.6% 37.6% 35.8% 37.6% 37.1% 37.0%
  Norm. FFO/Investments 4 9.43% 9.10% 9.30% 9.36% 9.20% 9.81% 9.98% 10.23% 9.97% 10.04% 10.01%
  The Debt/EBITDA ratio went up in Q3-15 when Preferred shares were replaced by other forms of debt
  Revenues 42.141 41.131 39.996 38.604 37.393 34.943 32.387 31.480 30.775 29.541
  Revenue/Investments 4 13.06% 12.48% 12.68% 12.58% 12.33% 12.99% 13.44% 13.80% 13.08%
  Adjusted Income 20.367 20.633 22.100 19.586 17.092 18.155 16.357 16.618 17.201 16.304
  Adj Inc/Investments 4 6.56% 6.90% 6.43% 5.75% 6.39% 6.56% 7.09% 7.71% 7.22%

LTC always has a loss provision. Q4-16 contained a provision plus an actual markdown on a property.

LTC LTC_Properties Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14 2Yr Average
  Revenues 42.141 40.842 39.996 38.604 37.393 34.943 32.387 31.480 30.775 29.541 per quarter
  Impairments .978 .043 0.118 0.084 2.406 0.031 0.429 0.003 0.046 0.040
  Impair/Revenue Ratio 2.32% 0.11% 0.30% 0.22% 6.43% 0.09% 1.32% 0.01% 0.15% 0.14% 1.35%

Given the high interest rates on the loans that "LTC owns", this IMHO is a fairly small (or good) markdown history.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.