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Consumer Staples Update For 3/03/17

This is a 'glass half full' sector 2017. These are consumer STAPLES - and it is the 'staples are stable' attribute that has a downside when inflation and/or interest rates pick up. The SPY is up 6.66% while the unweighted average sector average return for this group is 4.17%. They are getting left behind - but the distance they are left behind is relatively small.

That is the good news. The bad news - all the double digit price growing members of this group are getting a dead cat bounce from under performance in 2016. CL, CLX and KMB all had price declines in 2016. Take the cat out of the picture - and these stocks are getting left behind.

I will atypically start with the old 2016 numbers so that you can see what I mean:

Large and Mid-Cap Consumer Staples 12/30/16

The Q4-16 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2017 EPS projection as the denominator. The change in the target, EPS and target is the percentage change in the consensus 2016 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2016. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q4-15. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q4-11. LANC paid a special dividend of $5.00 in Dec of 2015 - special dividends are not included in my stats. SAFM has paid large and growing special dividends - not included in this data - in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

    12-31-15 12-30 Div Current Div/ Div/ Percent Change
Company Price Price /Quarter Yield EPS16 EPS17 Price Pr+Div EPS16 EPS17 Target Div 1yr Div 5yr
Archer-Daniels (NYSE:ADM) 36.68 45.65 0.300 2.63 53% 41% 24.45 27.73 -25.97 -5.75 4.83 7.14 14.29
Campbell (NYSE:CPB) 52.55 60.47 0.350 2.32 48% 46% 15.07 17.74 4.63 4.78 16.26 12.18 4.14
Coke (NYSE:KO) 42.96 41.46 0.350 3.38 73% 70% -3.49 -0.23 -7.73 -9.50 0.33 6.06 9.79
ConAgra (NYSE:CAG) 42.16 39.55 0.250 2.53 48% 60% -6.19 -3.82 -7.89 -30.00 -11.39 0.00 0.83
Colgate (NYSE:CL) 66.62 65.44 0.390 2.38 55% 51% -1.77 0.57 -5.05 -5.28 6.52 2.63 6.90
Clorox (NYSE:CLX) 126.83 120.02 0.800 2.67 60% 56% -5.37 -2.85 9.24 9.42 1.25 3.90 6.67
DrP/Snapple (DPS) 93.20 90.67 0.530 2.34 48% 44% -2.71 -0.44 2.08 1.49 1.89 10.42 13.13
Flowers (NYSE:FLO) 21.49 19.97 0.160 3.20 70% 68% -7.07 -4.09 -16.51 -24.19 -23.43 10.34 12.00
General Mills (NYSE:GIS) 57.66 61.77 0.460 2.98 63% 59% 7.13 10.32 2.10 0.32 10.02 4.55 10.16
Hershey (NYSE:HSY) 89.27 103.43 0.618 2.39 57% 53% 15.86 18.63 -2.05 -3.33 11.75 6.00 15.83
Hormel (NYSE:HRL) 39.54 34.81 0.170 1.95 40% 40% -11.96 -10.24 15.75 7.01 5.43 36.00 33.25
Ingredion (NYSE:INGR) 95.84 124.96 0.500 1.60 28% 26% 30.38 32.47 10.49 9.86 38.12 11.11 30.00
Kellogg (NYSE:K) 72.27 73.71 0.520 2.82 57% 52% 1.99 4.87 -1.63 1.01 15.33 4.00 4.19
Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB) 127.30 114.12 0.920 3.22 61% 58% -10.35 -7.46 -2.91 -7.70 -3.52 4.55 6.29
Lancaster (NASDAQ:LANC) 115.46 141.39 0.550 1.56 50% 46% 22.46 24.36 5.71 6.92 18.58 10.00 10.56
McCormick (NYSE:MKC) 85.56 93.33 0.470 2.01 50% 46% 9.08 11.28 1.34 -1.90 20.08 9.30 10.32
Pepsi (NASDAQ:PEP) 99.92 104.63 0.752 2.88 63% 58% 4.71 7.73 -0.82 -4.07 10.55 7.12 9.22
Procter&Gamble (NYSE:PG) 79.41 84.08 0.670 3.19 73% 69% 5.88 9.26 -2.13 -8.25 8.99 1.07 5.52
SandersonFarms (NASDAQ:SAFM) 77.52 94.24 0.220 0.93 12% 10% 21.57 22.70 40.07 27.73 29.05 0.00 5.88
JM Smucker (NYSE:SJM) 123.34 128.06 0.750 2.34 50% 39% 3.83 6.26 3.63 19.60 5.94 11.94 11.25
Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) 53.33 61.68 0.225 1.46 20% 20% 15.66 17.34 26.67 15.91 27.97 50.00 92.50
Average         2.42 51% 48% 6.15 8.67 2.33   9.26 9.92 14.89
The SPY or S&P 500 EFT is 9.64% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is 11.87% year to date.
The KXI or Consumer Staples ETF is -1.52% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is 0.79%.
The RHS or Guggenheim S&P 500 Eq Wt Cons Staple ETF is 2.93% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is 4.74%.
With the 10 Treasury at 2.42% and the sector average yield on the Q4 dividend at 2.42% - the spread is 0 basis points.
* The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

And now the 2017 data:

Large and Mid-Cap Consumer Staples 03/03/17

The Q1-17 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2018 EPS projection as the denominator. The change in the target, EPS and target is the percentage change in the consensus 2017 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2017. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q1-16. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q1-12. LANC paid a special dividend of $5.00 in Dec of 2015 - special dividends are not included in my stats. SAFM has paid large and growing special dividends - not included in this data - in 2014, 2015 and 2016. On 12/08/06 Conagra cut its Q1-17 dividend ($0.20/year) after spin-off of Lamb Wesson. Shareholders of CAG will receive one share of LW (target dividend of $0.75/year) for every three shares of CAG.

    12-31-16 03-03 Div Current Div/ Div/ Percent Change
Company Price Price /Quarter Yield EPS17 EPS18 Price Pr+Div EPS17 EPS18 Target Div 1yr Div 5yr
Archer-Daniels   45.65 45.20 0.320 2.83 45% 42% -0.99 -0.99 -2.39 12.82 -1.01 6.67 16.57
Campbell   60.47 59.54 0.350 2.35 46% 43% -1.54 -0.96 -0.32 -0.31 0.53 12.18 4.14
Coke   41.46 42.48 0.370 3.48 79% 76% 2.46 3.35 -5.56 -7.62 -4.39 5.71 9.02
ConAgra   39.55 41.15 0.200 1.94 47% 43% 4.05 4.55 0.59 0.53 2.51 -20.00 -3.33
Colgate   65.44 73.59 0.390 2.12 53% 49% 12.45 13.05 -2.98 -5.65 -2.21 2.63 6.90
Clorox   120.02 136.92 0.800 2.34 60% 56% 14.08 14.75 0.00 0.88 5.05 3.90 6.67
DrP/Snapple   90.67 94.91 0.580 2.44 51% 47% 4.68 5.32 -3.79 -4.05 3.08 9.43 14.12
Flowers   19.97 19.20 0.160 3.33 71% 64% -3.86 -3.86 -5.26 -4.76 9.05 10.34 12.00
General Mills   61.77 60.73 0.460 3.03 60% 55% -1.68 -0.94 -0.65 -1.19 -2.21 4.55 10.16
Hershey   103.43 108.66 0.618 2.27 52% 48% 5.06 5.06 3.02 1.98 6.62 6.00 12.53
Hormel   34.81 35.37 0.170 1.92 41% 39% 1.61 2.10 -5.11 2.35 0.25 17.24 25.33
Ingredion   124.96 121.84 0.500 1.64 26% 25% -2.50 -2.10 0.80 -2.64 -5.68 11.11 30.00
Kellogg   73.71 74.47 0.520 2.79 53% 48% 1.03 1.03 -1.01 -0.69 1.17 4.00 4.19
Kimberly-Clark   114.12 133.65 0.970 2.90 62% 57% 17.11 17.96 -0.63 -0.44 3.82 5.43 6.22
Lancaster   141.39 133.20 0.550 1.65 45% 43% -5.79 -5.79 1.25 1.00 3.58 10.00 10.56
McCormick   93.33 99.43 0.470 1.89 46% 42% 6.54 7.04 -0.73 0.00 -2.24 9.30 10.32
Pepsi   104.63 110.56 0.752 2.72 59% 54% 5.67 5.67 -1.16 -2.29 -0.57 7.12 9.22
Procter&Gamble   84.08 90.50 0.670 2.96 70% 65% 7.64 8.43 -0.52 -0.96 0.93 1.07 5.52
SandersonFarms   94.24 94.39 0.240 1.02 12% 12% 0.16 0.41 -6.08 4.86 -5.89 9.09 8.24
JM Smucker   128.06 140.49 0.750 2.14 39% 38% 9.71 10.29 -0.65 -1.48 1.51 11.94 11.25
Tyson Foods   61.68 63.60 0.225 1.42 18% 18% 3.11 3.11 3.73 0.20 -2.13 50.00 92.50
Average         2.34 49% 46% 3.76 4.17 -1.31   0.56 8.46 14.39
The SPY or S&P 500 EFT is 6.66% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is 6.66% year to date.
The KXI or Consumer Staples ETF is 6.53% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is 6.53%.
The RHS or Guggenheim S&P 500 Eq Wt Cons Staple ETF is 5.74% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is 5.74%.
With the 10 Treasury at 2.46% and the sector average yield on the Q4 dividend at 2.34% - the spread is -12 basis points.
* The change in the dividend is for the last twelve months and not year to date.

Price/Earnings Ratios 03-03
The 2019 Projections are from NASDAQ - except for ADM - which is home made. CAG #'s are not spin-off adjusted.

  EPS / Share % EPS Growth Price/EPS Current Fiscal Year Year
Co. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 2016 2017 2018 High Low Range End
ADM 3.20 2.60 2.16 2.86 3.08 3.15 -18.75 -16.92 32.41 7.69 20.93 15.80 14.68 3.00 2.74 12.04% Dec
CPB 2.53 2.46 2.94 3.07 3.22 3.42 -2.77 19.51 4.42 4.89 20.25 19.39 18.49 3.15 2.94 7.14% July
KO 2.04 2.00 1.91 1.87 1.94 2.05 -1.96 -4.50 -2.09 3.74 22.24 22.72 21.90 1.90 1.84 3.14% Dec
CAG 2.17 2.18 2.08 1.70 1.88 2.07 0.46 -4.59 -18.27 10.59 19.78 24.21 21.89 1.75 1.61 6.73% May
CL 2.93 2.81 2.81 2.93 3.17 3.49 -4.10 0.00 4.27 8.19 26.19 25.12 23.21 2.97 2.87 3.56% Dec
CLX 4.26 4.57 4.96 5.33 5.73 6.06 7.28 8.53 7.46 7.50 27.60 25.69 23.90 5.36 5.28 1.61% Dec
DPS 3.65 4.02 4.39 4.57 4.97 5.54 10.14 9.20 4.10 8.75 21.62 20.77 19.10 4.73 4.47 5.92% Dec
FLO 0.88 0.92 0.91 0.90 1.00 1.15 4.55 -1.09 -1.10 11.11 21.10 21.33 19.20 0.98 0.85 14.29% Dec
GIS 2.82 2.86 2.92 3.07 3.32 3.51 1.42 2.10 5.14 8.14 20.80 19.78 18.29 3.12 3.00 4.11% May
HSY 3.98 4.12 4.41 4.78 5.16 5.55 3.52 7.04 8.39 7.95 24.64 22.73 21.06 4.95 4.74 4.76% Dec
HRL 1.11 1.32 1.64 1.67 1.74 1.74 18.92 24.24 1.83 4.19 21.57 21.18 20.33 1.73 1.68 3.05% Dec
INGR 5.20 5.88 7.86 7.59 8.10 9.26 13.08 33.67 -3.44 6.72 15.50 16.05 15.04 7.68 7.49 2.42% Oct
K 3.81 3.53 3.74 3.94 4.34 4.65 -7.35 5.95 5.35 10.15 19.91 18.90 17.16 4.00 3.83 4.55% Dec
KMB 5.51 5.76 6.03 6.29 6.75 7.26 4.54 4.69 4.31 7.31 22.16 21.25 19.80 6.45 6.25 3.32% Dec
LANC 3.69 3.74 4.44 4.86 5.06 0.00 1.36 18.72 9.46 4.12 30.00 27.41 26.32 4.95 4.78 3.83% June
MKC 3.37 3.48 3.78 4.08 4.46 4.76 3.26 8.62 7.94 9.31 26.30 24.37 22.29 4.12 4.05 1.85% Nov
PEP 4.63 4.57 4.85 5.12 5.55 6.12 -1.30 6.13 5.57 8.40 22.80 21.59 19.92 5.21 5.09 2.47% Dec
PG 4.09 3.76 3.67 3.84 4.13 4.43 -8.07 -2.39 4.63 7.55 24.66 23.57 21.91 3.89 3.81 2.18% June
SAFM 10.80 9.52 8.37 8.03 8.20 6.69 -11.85 -12.08 -4.06 2.12 11.28 11.75 11.51 9.25 6.70 30.47% Oct
SJM 5.64 5.38 6.00 7.65 7.98 8.39 -4.61 11.52 27.50 4.31 23.42 18.36 17.61 7.75 7.62 2.17% Apr
TSN 2.94 3.15 4.39 5.00 4.98 4.94 7.14 39.37 13.90 -0.40 14.49 12.72 12.77 5.10 4.92 4.10% Sep
Average             7.51 5.61 6.78 21.77 20.70 19.35  

Disclosure: I am/we are long CL, GIS, HRL, HSY, INGR, PEP, PG, SJM.