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TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp Reports OK Q4/2016

|Includes: TriplePoint Venture Growth (TPVG)

The consensus analyst projections from Yahoo Finance:

  Current Qtr. (Dec 2016) Next Qtr. (Mar 2017) Current Year Next Year
No. of Analysts 3 3 3 3
Avg. Estimate 0.35 0.43 1.47 1.52
Low Estimate 0.34 0.36 1.45 1.47
High Estimate 0.36 0.57 1.48 1.59
Year Ago EPS 0.35 0.41 1.44 1.47
Revenue Estimate Current Qtr. (Dec 2016) Next Qtr. (Mar 2017) Current Year Next Year
No. of Analysts 3 3 3 3
Avg. Estimate 11.92M 13.63M 44.84M 50.89M
Low Estimate 11.58M 11.99M 44.57M 48.95M
High Estimate 12.2M 16.21M 45M 53M
Year Ago Sales 11.43M 11.08M 42.09M 44.84M

My spreadsheets:

  Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14 Q2-14 Q1-14
Realized & Unrealized Gains 2.115 4.940 -4.955 -13.985 -6.029 1.044 0.753 -2.206 -1.078 1.151 36 1.374
Realized & Unrealized Gains/share 0.1247 0.3070 -0.3042 -0.8587 -0.3637 0.0627 0.0454 -0.2145 -0.1089 0.1166 0.0036 0.1396
  Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14 Q2-14 Q1-14
Cash Wt Av Yield   15.1% 10.1% 10.6% 10.4% 10.7% 10.6% 11.0% 11.1% 10.9% 11.1% 11.2%
Net accretion of discount 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 5.0% 6.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.3% 3.1%
Prepayments 0.0% 1.4% 2.3%   2.5% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Reported Wt Av Yield 13.7% 10.5% 13.2% 15.7% 17.9% 17.5% 17.9% 14.6% 16.9% 14.5% 14.4% 14.3%
Accretion of EOT 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 3.0% x% 6.0% 3.1% 2.9% x% 3.2% 3.0%  
  Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14 Q2-14 Q1-14
Interest income 10.553 11.207 9.282 10.725 11.072 9.184 10.487 9.161 10.170 7.802 5.394 1.308
Other income .096 1.295 .123 .354 .355 .061 1.119 .647 .520 .056 .095 0
Total investment income 10.649 12.502 9.405 11.079 11.427 9.245 11.606 9.808 10.690 7.858 5.489 1.308
Net investment income 4.830 6.495 4.958 6.728 6.048 4.671 6.295 4.945 5.862 3.522 2.854 0.569
Investments @ fair value 0.414 0.309 0.300 0.283 0.272 0.262 0.208 0.252 0.258 0.248 0.206 0.143
Wt Av Share Count 15.962 16.091 16.289 16.302 16.575 16.648 16.569 10.285 9.895 9.873 9.850 9.845
TII/share $0.6671 $0.7770 $0.5774 $0.6796 $0.6894 $0.5553 $0.7005 $0.9536 $1.0803 $0.7959 $0.5572 $0.1328
NII/share $0.2848 $0.4036 $0.3044 $0.4127 $0.3649 $0.2806 $0.3799 $0.4728 $0.5924 $0.3567 $0.2897 $0.06
Reported Core NII/share $0.30 $0.40 $0.30 $0.41 $0.36 $0.29 $0.38 $0.45 $0.57 $0.38 $0.29 $0.09
Reg + Spec Div/share $0.36 $0.36 $0.36 $0.36 $0.36 $0.36 $0.36 $0.36 $0.51 $0.32 $0.30 $0.09
NAV/share $13.51 $13.44 $13.05 $13.40 $14.21 $14.52 $14.54 $14.48 $14.61 $14.64 $14.49 $14.58
Cash Wt Av Yld - coupon income 10.4% 10.5% 10.1% 10.6% 10.4% 10.7% 10.6% 11.0% 11.1% 10.9% 11.1% 11.2%
Adjusted Wt Av Yield 13.7% 15.1% 13.2% 15.7% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.1% 14.1% 14.1%  
NII/TII Ratio 45.36% 51.95% 52.72% 60.73% 52.93% 50.52% 54.24% 50.42% 54.84% 44.82% 51.99%  
# Portfolio Companies 19 17 18 19 34 28 28 26 27 23

TPVG buys treasuries just before the end of the quarter - then sells them to pay off the debt. This has to be done to satisfy BDC diversification requirements. Using the debt from the Treasuries makes the annualized debt expense too low (in the low 4s). Ignoring the debt makes the annualized expense number look too high (the low 7s). Given that the coupon is high - I went with the second option.

  Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14 Q2-14 Q1-14
Credit Facility 115.000 57.000 53.000 18.000 18.000 14.000 61.000 120.000 118.000 109.000 68.500 20.000
2020 Notes 53.288 53.194 53.099 53.005 52.910 52.819            
Payable for US Treasuries 39.990 79.837 69.886 79.863 69.998 59.996     49.998 50.000 59.997 49.999
Total Debt w/o Treasuries 168.280 110.194 106.099 71.005 70.910 66.819 61.000 120.000 118.000 109.000 68.500 20.000
Debt/share 10.5430 6.8482 6.5135 4.3556 4.2781 4.0136 3.6816 11.6675 11.9252 11.0402 6.9543 2.0315
Debt/share to NAV 78.04% 50.95% 49.91% 32.50% 30.11% 27.64% 25.32% 80.58% 81.62% 75.41% 47.99% 13.93%
Interest expense 2.126 2.036 1.903 1.794 1.791 1.656 1.194 1.644 1.597 1.370 0.776 0.154
Interest expense/share 0.1332 0.1265 0.1168 0.1100 0.1080 3 2 1 4 3 2 1
Interest expense/TII 19.96% 16.29% 20.23% 16.19% 15.67% 3 2 1 4 3 2 1
Annualized Int exp/Debt 5.05% 7.39% 7.17% 10.11% 10.10% 3 2 1 4 3 2 1
PWAY - Int exp/Debt 865 bps 771 bps 603 bps 559 bps 450 bps 3 2 1 4 3 2 1
On 1-28-16 TPVG renewed its Credit Facility at a rate of based on certain indexes +300 - a reduction from +350 - maturing in Feb 2019
On 7-30-15 TPVG offered $50.0 million of 6.75% notes (getting $48.3 million) maturing in 2020 - traded as TPVZ. On 9-2-15 $4.6 million more was sold.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.