Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Large And Mid-Cap Consumer Staples 03/31/17

Large and Mid-Cap Consumer Staples 03/31/17

The Q1-17 dividend is used for yield calculations. The second Dividend/EPS ratio has the 2018 EPS projection as the denominator. The change in the target, EPS and target is the percentage change in the consensus 2017 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2017. "Div 1 yr" measures the change in the dividend since Q1-16. "Div 5 yr" measures the average change in the dividend since Q1-12. LANC paid a special dividend of $5.00 in Dec of 2015 - special dividends are not included in my stats. SAFM has paid large and growing special dividends - not included in this data - in 2014, 2015 and 2016. On 12/08/06 Conagra cut its Q1-17 dividend ($0.20/year) after spin-off of Lamb Wesson. Shareholders of CAG will receive one share of LW (target dividend of $0.75/year) for every three shares of CAG.

    12-31-16 03-31 Div Current Div/ Div/ Percent Change
Company Price Price /Quarter Yield EPS17 EPS18 Price Pr+Div EPS17 EPS18 Target Div 1yr Div 5yr
Archer-Daniels (NYSE:ADM) 45.65 46.04 0.320 2.78 45% 42% 0.85 1.56 -2.73 12.82 -2.70 6.67 16.57
Campbell (NYSE:CPB) 60.47 57.24 0.350 2.45 46% 44% -5.34 -4.76 -0.65 -0.62 -0.46 12.18 4.14
Coke (NYSE:KO) 41.46 42.44 0.370 3.49 79% 76% 2.36 3.26 -5.56 -7.14 -3.14 5.71 9.02
ConAgra (NYSE:CAG) 39.55 40.34 0.200 1.98 47% 43% 2.00 2.50 1.78 0.53 5.21 -20.00 -3.33
Colgate (NYSE:CL) 65.44 73.19 0.390 2.13 53% 49% 11.84 12.44 -3.31 -5.65 -0.27 2.63 6.90
Clorox (NYSE:CLX) 120.02 134.83 0.800 2.37 60% 56% 12.34 13.01 0.19 0.88 6.50 3.90 6.67
DrP/Snapple (DPS) 90.67 97.92 0.580 2.37 51% 46% 8.00 8.64 -3.58 -3.47 5.43 9.43 14.12
Flowers (NYSE:FLO) 19.97 19.41 0.160 3.30 71% 64% -2.80 -2.00 -5.26 -4.76 9.05 10.34 12.00
General Mills (NYSE:GIS) 61.77 59.01 0.460 3.12 60% 57% -4.47 -3.72 -0.97 -3.57 -4.80 4.55 10.16
Hershey (NYSE:HSY) 103.43 109.25 0.618 2.26 52% 48% 5.63 6.22 3.02 2.57 7.23 6.00 12.53
Hormel (NYSE:HRL) 34.81 34.63 0.170 1.96 41% 39% -0.52 -0.03 -5.11 2.35 -0.76 17.24 25.33
Ingredion (NYSE:INGR) 124.96 120.43 0.500 1.66 26% 25% -3.63 -3.23 0.66 -2.64 -5.68 11.11 30.00
Kellogg (NYSE:K) 73.71 72.61 0.520 2.86 53% 48% -1.49 -0.79 -1.01 -1.14 0.09 4.00 4.19
Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB) 114.12 131.63 0.970 2.95 61% 57% 15.34 16.19 -0.32 -0.15 6.68 5.43 6.22
Lancaster (NASDAQ:LANC) 141.39 128.84 0.550 1.71 45% 44% -8.88 -8.49 1.25 0.60 3.88 10.00 10.56
McCormick (NYSE:MKC) 93.33 97.55 0.470 1.93 39% 37% 4.52 5.03 18.25 13.00 -1.13 9.30 10.32
Pepsi (NYSE:PEP) 104.63 111.86 0.752 2.69 59% 54% 6.91 6.91 -0.97 -2.46 0.67 7.12 9.22
Procter&Gamble (NYSE:PG) 84.08 89.85 0.670 2.98 70% 65% 6.86 7.66 -0.52 -0.96 1.48 1.07 5.52
SandersonFarms (NASDAQ:SAFM) 94.24 103.84 0.240 0.92 12% 11% 10.19 10.44 -3.74 7.03 -0.84 9.09 8.24
JM Smucker (NYSE:SJM) 128.06 131.08 0.750 2.29 39% 38% 2.36 2.94 -0.65 -1.36 0.65 11.94 11.25
Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) 61.68 61.71 0.225 1.46 18% 18% 0.05 0.41 3.73 0.20 -2.13 50.00 92.50
Average         2.37 49% 46% 2.96 3.53 -0.26   1.19 8.46 14.39
The SPY or S&P 500 EFT is 5.46% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is 5.46% year to date.
The KXI or Consumer Staples ETF is 7.92% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is 7.92%.
The RHS or Guggenheim S&P 500 Eq Wt Cons Staple ETF is 4.26% year to date - and with unreinvested dividends is 4.26%.
With the 10 Treasury at 2.37% and the sector average yield on the Q4 dividend at 2.37% - the spread is 0 basis points.

Price/Earnings Ratios 03-31
The 2019 Projections are from NASDAQ - except for ADM - which is home made. CAG #'s are not spin-off adjusted.

  EPS / Share % EPS Growth Price/EPS Current Fiscal Year Year
Co. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 2016 2017 2018 High Low Range End
ADM 3.20 2.60 2.16 2.85 3.08 3.15 -18.75 -16.92 31.94 8.07 21.31 16.15 14.95 3.00 2.74 12.04% Dec
CPB 2.53 2.46 2.94 3.06 3.21 3.42 -2.77 19.51 4.08 4.90 19.47 18.71 17.83 3.15 2.94 7.14% July
KO 2.04 2.00 1.91 1.87 1.95 2.05 -1.96 -4.50 -2.09 4.28 22.22 22.70 21.76 1.90 1.84 3.14% Dec
CAG 2.17 2.18 2.08 1.72 1.88 2.07 0.46 -4.59 -17.31 9.30 19.39 23.45 21.46 1.75 1.61 6.73% May
CL 2.93 2.81 2.81 2.92 3.17 3.49 -4.10 0.00 3.91 8.56 26.05 25.07 23.09 2.97 2.87 3.56% Dec
CLX 4.26 4.57 4.96 5.34 5.73 6.06 7.28 8.53 7.66 7.30 27.18 25.25 23.53 5.36 5.28 1.61% Dec
DPS 3.65 4.02 4.39 4.58 5.00 5.54 10.14 9.20 4.33 9.17 22.31 21.38 19.58 4.73 4.47 5.92% Dec
FLO 0.88 0.92 0.91 0.90 1.00 1.15 4.55 -1.09 -1.10 11.11 21.33 21.57 19.41 0.98 0.85 14.29% Dec
GIS 2.82 2.86 2.92 3.06 3.24 3.51 1.42 2.10 4.79 5.88 20.21 19.28 18.21 3.12 3.00 4.11% May
HSY 3.98 4.12 4.41 4.78 5.19 5.55 3.52 7.04 8.39 8.58 24.77 22.86 21.05 4.95 4.74 4.76% Dec
HRL 1.11 1.32 1.64 1.67 1.74 1.74 18.92 24.24 1.83 4.19 21.12 20.74 19.90 1.73 1.68 3.05% Dec
INGR 5.20 5.88 7.86 7.58 8.10 9.26 13.08 33.67 -3.56 6.86 15.32 15.89 14.87 7.68 7.49 2.42% Oct
K 3.81 3.53 3.74 3.94 4.32 4.65 -7.35 5.95 5.35 9.64 19.41 18.43 16.81 4.00 3.83 4.55% Dec
KMB 5.51 5.76 6.03 6.31 6.77 7.26 4.54 4.69 4.64 7.29 21.83 20.86 19.44 6.45 6.25 3.32% Dec
LANC 3.69 3.74 4.44 4.86 5.04 0.00 1.36 18.72 9.46 3.70 29.02 26.51 25.56 4.95 4.78 3.83% June
MKC 3.37 3.48 3.78 4.86 5.04 4.76 3.26 8.62 28.57 3.70 25.81 20.07 19.36 4.12 4.05 1.85% Nov
PEP 4.63 4.57 4.85 5.13 5.54 6.12 -1.30 6.13 5.77 7.99 23.06 21.81 20.19 5.21 5.09 2.47% Dec
PG 4.09 3.76 3.67 3.84 4.13 4.43 -8.07 -2.39 4.63 7.55 24.48 23.40 21.76 3.89 3.81 2.18% June
SAFM 10.80 9.52 8.37 8.23 8.37 6.69 -11.85 -12.08 -1.67 1.70 12.41 12.62 12.41 9.25 6.70 30.47% Oct
SJM 5.64 5.38 6.00 7.65 7.99 8.39 -4.61 11.52 27.50 4.44 21.85 17.13 16.41 7.75 7.62 2.17% Apr
TSN 2.94 3.15 4.39 5.00 4.98 4.94 7.14 39.37 13.90 -0.40 14.06 12.34 12.39 5.10 4.92 4.10% Sep
Average             7.51 6.72 6.37 21.55 20.30 19.05      

Yield + CAGR Total Return Expectations

Company Q1-17 Factoid's Total Bonds EPS My Total Rtn Consensus Price Implied CAGR Div Price
    Yield CAGR Return Ratings Accr RRRs - RRR Ratings RRR-Yld P/E /Earn /Earn
Archer-Daniels ADM 2.78% 3.00% 5.78% A 5.00 10.50 -4.72 2.7 7.72 6.41% 44.91 16.15
Campbell CPB 2.45% 7.00% 9.45% BBB+ 1.00 8.50 0.95 3.2 6.05 4.69% 45.75 18.71
Coke KO 3.49% 2.80% 6.29% A+ 2.00 7.80 -1.51 2.6 4.31 5.18% 79.14 22.70
ConAgra CAG 1.98% 5.00% 6.98% BBB- 2.00 9.50 -2.52 2.2 7.52 10.82% 46.51 23.45
Colgate CL 2.13% 7.80% 9.93% AA- 2.00 8.00 1.93 2.9 5.87 7.75% 53.42 25.07
Clorox CLX 2.37% 6.40% 8.77% BBB+ 1.30 8.50 0.27 2.9 6.13 9.27% 59.93 25.25
DrP/Snapple DPS 2.37% 8.00% 10.37% BBB+ 1.00 8.50 1.87 2.9 6.13 6.57% 50.66 21.38
Flowers FLO 3.30% 6.80% 10.10% none 4.00 10.50 -0.40 2.5 7.20 9.50% 71.11 21.57
General Mills GIS 3.12% 6.00% 9.12% BBB+ 1.00 8.50 0.62 2.9 5.38 5.10% 60.13 19.28
Hershey HSY 2.26% 6.80% 9.06% A 1.80 9.00 0.06 2.9 6.74 9.35% 51.72 22.86
Hormel HRL 1.96% 5.40% 7.36% A 1.00 9.00 -1.64 2.7 7.04 7.87% 40.72 20.74
Ingredion INGR 1.66% 8.00% 9.66% none 3.00 10.00 -0.34 2.5 8.34 5.87% 26.39 15.89
Kellogg K 2.86% 6.00% 8.86% BBB 2.00 9.00 -0.14 2.9 6.14 6.25% 52.79 18.43
Kimberly-Clark KMB 2.95% 5.80% 8.75% A 1.80 8.00 0.75 2.9 5.05 4.80% 61.49 20.86
Lancaster LANC 1.71% 3.30% 5.01% none 2.00 8.50 -3.49 2.6 6.79 10.16% 45.27 26.51
McCormick MKC 1.93% 8.00% 9.93% A- 1.50 9.00 0.93 2.8 7.07 7.40% 38.68 20.07
Pepsi PEP 2.69% 7.00% 9.69% A 2.00 8.00 1.69 2.1 5.31 5.46% 58.67 21.81
Procter&Gamble PG 2.98% 5.00% 7.98% AA- 2.00 7.80 0.18 2.3 4.82 5.67% 69.79 23.40
SandersonFarms SAFM 0.92% 10.00% 10.92% none 3.00 10.50 0.42 2.5 9.58 3.23% 11.66 12.62
JM Smucker SJM 2.29% 10.00% 12.29% BBB 1.50 8.50 3.79 2.7 6.21 3.59% 39.22 17.13
Tyson Foods TSN 1.46% 9.00% 10.46% BBB 2.50 9.50 0.96 2.2 8.04 3.04% 18.00 12.34
Average   2.37% 6.53% 8.89%         2.66 6.54 6.57   21.55

A full update would include more data sets and parsing data. For example, I am not supplying the spreadsheets that justify the CAGRs. Since the KO CAGR is below the dividend trend - let me pause and refresh that data:

Co.

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Average Average CAGR PI-CAGRs & Yahoo
KO EPS 1.51 1.47 1.75 1.92 2.01 2.08 2.04 2.00 1.91 1.87 1.95 2.05     My 2.80% RRR-yield 4.50%
  Growth   -2.65 19.05 9.71 4.69 3.48 -1.92 -1.96 -4.50 -2.09 4.28 5.13 3.59% 3.95% Broker 7.00% P/E Ratio 4.15%
  Div 0.76 0.82 0.88 0.94 1.02 1.12 1.22 1.32 1.40 1.48         CCC 4.00% Yahoo Q4-16 1.84%
  Growth   7.89 7.32 6.82 8.51 9.80 8.93 8.20 6.06 5.71     8.10% 12.90% Last 5 -1.40% Yahoo Q3-16 2.14%
  Div/EPS 50% 56% 50% 49% 51% 54% 60% 66% 73% 79%     58.82%   Last 3 8.98% Yahoo Q2-16 4.53%
  With 2019 EPS projection of $2.05 and a payout "long term" trend of 70% (the current trend in the payout ratio is not sustainable), the 2019 dividend should be $1.45 - implying no growth over the next two years. KO lacks EPS growth . . . Basically since 2012. KO is selling as if the dividend growth trend will continue. I believe this data is screaming sell Coke now!

Note: I used the same kind of spreadsheet to reach my conclusion that is was time to sell HRL.

Disclosure: I am/we are long CL, DPS, GIS, HSY, INGR, PEP, PG, SJM.