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BDC Update 4/24/17

The sector average (on my non-cap weighted coverage universe) Price/NAV is 102%. The last time the sector average was above 100% was the first half of 2014. This is not a red flag metric. It is more of a yellow or caution flag. It is logical that Price/NAV stats should be in alignment with NAV trends - and the current NAV trend is improving. This could also mean that Q1-17 NAV disappointments may be more severely punished.

Year to date - the low PWAY stocks have under performed. The BDCs that are lacking dividend coverage are performing fairly close to sector average. Both of these metrics are potential indicators that a rising tide is lifting all boats . . even boats that do not merit the lift. This would also indicate that it is a better than average time to improve you portfolio by shifting from uncovered dividends to covered dividends and from high PWAY to lower PWAY. This conservative investor would say that any time is the right time to make such a shift.

Low PWAY stocks are also high floating rate stocks. I get the impression that our fellow retail investors believe that rising rates are going to meaningfully help float rate incomes. This belief is not showing up in the analyst earnings projections. If BDCs that were high in floating rate loans were really believed to have rising incomes, it is logical that the low PWAY stocks would be out performing - not under performing.

I have dropped FULL (no longer trading) and MFIN (just because it is too bad to include) from my coverage universe. I had expected to replace FULL with GECC - but GECC still lacks analyst coverage.

The numbers:

BDCs 04-24-17

Yield in the spreadsheet below is based on the Q1-17 'regular' dividend. Spreadsheet header abbreviations: Div = dividend; EPS = earnings per share; LTM = last twelve months; YTD = year to date. The dividend to EPS ratio is a measure of dividend safety. Due to calendar and fiscal years failing to overlap, I also include a dividend to the sum of the last four quarters of NII - in the Div/NIIltm column. After the Price/NAV ratio, the next column displays the percent change in price YTD. The next display price change plus YTD dividends accrued on the payment date - not the earned date. For the last four columns - the first measures the percentage change in the 2017 EPS projection since the beginning of the year; the second measures the change in the price target since the beginning of the year; the third measures the change in the Q1-17 dividend from the Q1-16 dividend; and the last measures the change in NAV between Q4-16 and Q4-15. Special dividends are not included in this data. ARCC, FDUS, MAIN and TCPC have paid special dividends on a near regular schedule. FULL has converted to Great Elm Capital Corp and trades as GECC. On 8-05 AINV cut its dividend. On 8-09 MCC cuts its dividend. On 9-22 CPTA cut. On 11-02 HRZN cut On 11-09 TCRD cut. On 11-09 CMFN cut. On 11-09 GARS cut. On 11-21 PNNT cut. On 12-08 OHAI cut. On 12-14 KCAP cut.

    Share Price     Div/ Div/ Div/ Div/ Q4-16 Price YTD Percent Change LTM % LTM % Last3yr Last 3Yr
___The_Company_name_and_stock_ticker___ 1-01 04-24 Yield PWAY EPS17 EPS18 NIIltm NAV NAV NAV Price Pr+Div EPS Target DivChng NAVChng DivChng NAVChng
Alcentra Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:ABDC) 11.97 14.20 9.58 11.70 94.4 90.7 81.9 9.9 13.72 1.03 18.63 24.31 -3.36 1.79 0.00 -4.92 na na
American Capital Senior Floating (ACSF) 11.90 13.40 8.66 6.50 100.9 99.1 98.1 8.5 13.68 0.98 12.61 15.04 -1.71 -1.07 0.00 16.03 na na
Apollo Investment Corporation (NASDAQ:AINV) 5.86 6.69 8.97 10.90 90.9 89.6 86.1 8.7 6.86 0.98 14.16 19.28 0.00 0.33 -25.00 -9.26 -25.00 -19.95
Ares Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:ARCC) 16.49 17.42 8.73 9.30 95.0 88.9 94.2 9.2 16.45 1.06 5.64 7.94 -0.62 9.17 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.06
BlackRock Capital Investment (NASDAQ:BKCC) 6.96 7.32 11.48 11.70 105.0 98.8 85.4 10.2 8.21 0.89 5.17 11.21 -6.98 0.00 0.00 -19.27 -19.23 -13.94
CM Finance Inc (NASDAQ:CMFN) 9.30 10.45 9.57 9.79 86.2 87.7 77.7 8.2 12.13 0.86 12.37 17.74 -0.85 0.00 -27.95 -0.33 -26.04 -17.20
Capitala Finance Corp. (NASDAQ:CPTA) 12.93 14.20 10.99 13.20 96.3 93.4 85.0 9.9 15.79 0.90 9.82 12.84 0.62 -0.98 -17.02 -7.34 -17.02 -23.76
Fidus Investment Corporation (NASDAQ:FDUS) 15.73 17.84 8.74 13.10 99.4 95.1 107.1 9.9 15.76 1.13 13.41 15.89 -3.09 4.80 0.00 3.89 2.63 2.67
Fifth Street Finance Corp. (FSC) 5.37 4.44 11.26 10.30 80.6 76.9 71.2 6.8 7.31 0.61 -17.32 -14.99 -17.33 -20.34 -30.56 -13.08 -49.98 -25.79
Fifth Street Senior Floating Rate (FSFR) 8.71 8.14 9.34 8.90 96.2 95.0 92.6 7.0 10.86 0.75 -6.54 -4.36 -13.19 -3.89 -15.56 -4.40 -17.39 -28.08
Franklin Square Investment Corp (NYSE:FSIC) 10.30 9.85 9.06 9.10 108.8 104.9 104.6 9.5 9.41 1.05 -4.37 -0.04 -5.75 4.17 0.00 3.41 0.00 -7.56
Gladstone Investment Corporation (NASDAQ:GAIN) 8.46 9.60 7.81 12.70 101.4 102.7 104.1 7.6 9.82 0.98 13.48 15.69 0.00 8.57 0.00 13.39 25.00 15.67
Garrison Capital Inc. (NASDAQ:GARS) 9.35 9.70 11.55 10.90 91.8 102.8 94.9 9.0 12.47 0.78 3.74 6.74 0.00 -1.94 -20.00 -10.80 -20.00 -17.74
Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (NASDAQ:GBDC) 18.39 20.21 6.33 7.70 100.8 99.2 101.1 8.1 15.74 1.28 9.90 11.64 -3.05 2.17 0.00 -0.94 0.00 3.35
Gladstone Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:GLAD) 9.39 9.57 8.78 11.30 100.0 98.8 100.0 10.0 8.36 1.14 1.92 4.15 -2.33 11.35 0.00 -0.24 0.00 -17.23
Goldman Sachs BDC (NYSE:GSBD) 23.52 24.78 7.26 11.80 90.0 88.7 85.8 9.8 18.31 1.35 5.36 9.18 -1.96 10.23 0.00 -3.48 na na
Harvest Capital Credit (NASDAQ:HCAP) 13.75 13.72 9.84 15.20 95.1 95.1 84.4 9.7 13.86 0.99 -0.22 2.97 -0.70 3.51 0.00 -2.81 0.00 -4.08
Horizon Technology Finance Corp (NASDAQ:HRZN) 10.53 11.52 10.42 14.20 99.2 98.4 81.0 9.9 12.09 0.95 9.40 12.25 0.83 -1.66 -13.04 -12.71 -13.04 -14.50
    Share Price     Div/ Div/ Div/ Div/ Q4-16 Price YTD Percent Change LTM % LTM % Last3yr Last 3Yr
___The_Company_name_and_stock_ticker___ 1-01 04-24 Yield PWAY EPS17 EPS18 NIIltm NAV NAV NAV Price Pr+Div EPS Target DivChng NAVChng DivChng NAVChng
Hercules Capital (NASDAQ:HTGC) 14.11 15.39 8.06 14.40 93.9 86.1 91.5 12.5 9.90 1.55 9.07 11.27 0.00 7.62 0.00 -0.40 0.00 -5.80
KCAP Financial,Inc. (NASDAQ:KCAP) 3.98 3.73 12.87 7.10 117.1 120.0 96.4 9.2 5.24 0.71 -6.28 -3.27 -16.33 0.00 -20.00 -9.97 -52.00 -30.23
Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE:MAIN) 36.77 39.56 5.61 9.38 96.5 94.5 99.8 10.0 22.10 1.79 7.59 9.10 0.00 4.00 2.78 4.05 12.12 11.11
Medley Capital Corporation (NYSE:MCC) 7.51 7.73 11.38 11.70 111.4 101.1 100.7 9.4 9.39 0.82 2.93 5.86 -3.66 3.43 -26.67 -6.19 -40.54 -25.95
Monroe Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:MRCC) 15.38 15.79 8.87 9.50 93.3 87.5 89.1 9.6 14.52 1.09 2.67 4.94 -5.66 0.90 0.00 2.33 2.94 4.31
New Mountain Finance Corp (NYSE:NMFC) 14.10 14.85 9.16 10.10 98.6 97.1 100.2 10.1 13.46 1.10 5.32 7.73 0.00 4.42 0.00 2.91 0.00 -6.40
OFS Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:OFS) 13.76 14.43 9.42 12.08 90.1 89.5 93.2 9.2 14.82 0.97 4.87 7.34 1.34 5.01 0.00 0.41 0.00 1.65
Oak Hill Advisors (NASDAQ:OHAI) 1.73 1.55 5.16 12.20 21.6 18.6 22.7 2.0 3.99 0.39 -10.40 -9.25 -13.95 0.00 -83.33 -27.32 -87.50 -56.63
Prospect Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:PSEC) 8.35 9.40 10.64 13.20 106.4 104.2 104.3 10.4 9.62 0.98 12.57 16.47 1.08 4.70 0.00 -0.31 -24.48 -10.34
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital (NASDAQ:PFLT) 14.11 13.82 8.25 7.90 100.9 95.8 104.8 8.1 14.11 0.98 -2.06 -0.04 -1.74 1.38 0.00 2.77 5.56 -0.91
PennantPark Investment Corp (NASDAQ:PNNT) 7.66 7.88 9.14 11.90 83.7 82.8 74.5 7.9 9.11 0.86 2.87 5.22 0.00 8.47 -35.71 1.00 -35.71 -15.65
Saratoga Investment Corp. (NYSE:SAR) 20.61 21.48 8.38 10.80 88.7 89.1 88.3 8.1 22.21 0.97 4.22 8.59 -4.69 7.77 12.50 -1.68 Infinity 7.45
Stellus Capital Investment (NYSE:SCM) 12.06 14.20 9.58 11.00 100.0 97.1 98.0 9.9 13.69 1.04 17.74 20.56 0.00 10.64 0.00 3.79 0.00 -5.85
Solar Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ:SLRC) 20.82 22.70 7.05 10.00 90.9 86.5 95.1 7.4 21.74 1.04 9.03 12.87 -2.76 4.74 0.00 4.57 0.00 -3.38
Solar Senior Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ:SUNS) 16.44 18.18 7.76 7.80 99.3 96.6 99.0 8.4 16.80 1.08 10.58 12.73 0.00 5.23 0.00 2.88 0.00 -6.87
Triangle Capital Corp (TCAP) 18.34 18.82 9.56 11.70 98.9 91.8 111.6 11.9 15.13 1.24 2.62 5.07 -3.70 1.77 -16.67 -0.66 -16.67 -6.02
TCP Capital Corp. (NASDAQ:TCPC) 16.90 16.89 8.53 10.90 92.9 90.0 90.8 9.7 14.91 1.13 -0.06 2.07 -1.27 4.41 0.00 0.88 0.00 -1.78
THL Credit, Inc. (NASDAQ:TCRD) 10.01 10.00 10.80 11.20 97.3 93.9 80.2 9.1 11.82 0.85 -0.10 2.60 -7.50 -3.02 -20.59 -6.04 -20.59 -11.53
TICC Capital Corp. (TICC) 6.61 7.18 16.16 12.79 178.5 227.5 287.8 15.5 7.50 0.96 8.62 13.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.19 0.00 -23.86
TriplePoint Venture Growth (NYSE:TPVG) 11.78 13.98 10.30 10.40 89.4 97.3 102.5 10.7 13.51 1.03 18.68 24.79 6.62 5.88 0.00 -4.93 Infinity -7.34
TPG Specialty Lending (NYSE:TSLX) 18.68 20.58 7.58 10.40 88.1 86.7 85.3 9.8 15.95 1.29 10.17 14.35 0.57 6.50 0.00 5.28 2.63 2.77
WhiteHorse Finance (NASDAQ:WHF) 12.17 14.54 9.77 11.80 97.3 102.2 96.8 10.4 13.63 1.07 19.47 25.31 0.69 8.61 0.00 2.25 0.00 -10.09
Sector Average     9.31 11.01 96.7     9.3   1.02 5.93 9.12 -2.76 2.97   -1.50
With the 10 Treasury at 2.25% and sector average yield on Q4 dividends at 9.31% - the spread is 706 bps.
The cap weighted ETN BDCS has a price change of 3.44% year to date - with dividends its total return is 7.35%.
The SPY or S&P 500 EFT is 6.10% year to date. - and with unreinvested dividends is 6.56% year to date.

Historical BDC sector average Price/NAV Ratios:

Year End of Q1 End of Q2 End of Q3 End of Q4

2007 March: 1.37 June: 1.31 Sept: 1.18 Dec: 0.96
2008 March: 0.90 June: 0.82 Sept: 0.77 Dec: 0.46
2009 March: 0.40 June: 0.58 Sept: Dec: 0.76
2010 March: 0.91 June: 0.84 Sept: 0.95 Dec: 1.02
2011 March: 1.08 June: 0.97 Sept: 0.80 Dec: 0.90
2012 March: 0.98 June: 0.99 Sept: 1.06 Dec: 1.04
2013 March: 1.11 June: 1.06 Sept: 1.09 Dec: 1.08
2014 March: 1.04 June: 1.07 Sept: 0.99 Dec: 0.91
2015 March: 0.95 June: 0.92 Sept: 0.81 Dec: 0.83
2016 March: 0.86 June: 0.89 Sept: 0.93 Dec: 0.93
BDC Earnings Growth & P/E Ratios 04-24

Fiscal and calendar years are not in sync. BDCs than began fiscal 2017 on or before calendar Q4-16 include AINV, FULL, FSC, GAIN, GBDC, GLAD, MCC, PSEC, PFLT, and PNNT. The range metric is the high estimate minus the low estimate, with that result dividend by the consensus estimate - and serves as one of several measurements for assessing risk. Almost all EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance. I lack 2018 analyst projections for OFS, OHAI and TPVG.

  Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios Current Fiscal Year
Co. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 15to16 16to17 17to18 2016 2017 2018 High Low Range Yr End
ABDC 0.00 0.00 0.86 1.43 1.57 1.44 1.50 9.79% -8.28% 4.17% 9.04 9.86 9.47 1.56 1.37 13.19% Dec
ACSF 0.00 0.00 0.38 1.29 1.25 1.15 1.17 -3.10% -8.00% 1.74% 10.72 11.65 11.45 1.84 1.84 0.00% Dec
AINV 0.83 0.83 0.91 0.82 0.84 0.66 0.67 2.44% -21.43% 1.52% 7.96 10.14 9.99 0.69 0.62 10.61% Mar
ARCC 1.65 1.64 1.43 1.54 1.61 1.60 1.71 4.55% -0.62% 6.87% 10.82 10.89 10.19 1.79 1.51 17.50% Dec
BKCC 1.00 0.78 0.91 0.97 0.98 0.80 0.85 1.03% -18.37% 6.25% 7.47 9.15 8.61 0.96 0.80 20.00% Dec
CMFN 0.00 0.00 1.17 1.48 1.29 1.16 1.14 -12.84% -10.08% -1.72% 8.10 9.01 9.17 1.19 1.12 6.03% Jun
CPTA 0.00 0.00 1.54 1.66 1.84 1.62 1.67 10.84% -11.96% 3.09% 7.72 8.77 8.50 1.65 1.56 5.56% Dec
FDUS 1.54 1.54 1.62 1.64 1.46 1.57 1.64 -10.98% 7.53% 4.46% 12.22 11.36 10.88 1.70 1.52 11.46% Dec
FSC 1.07 1.01 0.99 0.75 0.70 0.62 0.65 -6.67% -11.43% 4.84% 6.34 7.16 6.83 0.70 0.55 24.19% Sep
FSFR 0.00 0.00 0.96 0.96 0.82 0.79 0.80 -14.58% -3.66% 1.27% 9.93 10.30 10.18 0.80 0.78 2.53% Sep
FSIC 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.92 0.85 0.82 0.85 -7.61% -3.53% 3.66% 11.59 12.01 11.59 0.87 0.77 12.20% Dec
GAIN 0.62 0.68 0.73 0.75 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.00% -1.33% -1.35% 12.80 12.97 13.15 0.80 0.74 8.11% Mar
GARS 0.00 1.28 1.31 1.79 1.21 1.22 1.09 -32.40% 0.83% -10.66% 8.02 7.95 8.90 1.53 0.91 50.82% Dec
GBDC 1.15 1.29 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.29 0.79% 0.00% 1.57% 15.91 15.91 15.67 1.28 1.27 0.79% Sep
GLAD 0.91 0.88 0.87 0.84 0.85 0.84 0.85 1.19% -1.18% 1.19% 11.26 11.39 11.26 0.84 0.83 1.19% Sep
GSBD 0.00 0.00 1.77 2.04 2.14 2.00 2.03 4.90% -6.54% 1.50% 11.58 12.39 12.21 2.11 1.95 8.00% Dec
  Earnings / Share Earn. Growth P/E Ratios Current Fiscal Year
Co. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 15to16 16to17 17to18 2016 2017 2018 High Low Range Yr End
HCAP 0.00 0.00 1.34 1.36 1.60 1.42 1.42 17.65% -11.25% 0.00% 8.57 9.66 9.66 1.42 1.03 27.46% Dec
HRZN 1.41 1.39 1.11 1.25 1.46 1.21 1.22 16.80% -17.12% 0.83% 7.89 9.52 9.44 1.47 1.43 3.31% Dec
HTGC 0.97 1.23 1.13 1.04 1.24 1.32 1.44 19.23% 6.45% 9.09% 12.41 11.66 10.69 1.29 1.22 5.30% Dec
KCAP 0.89 0.91 0.97 0.65 0.51 0.41 0.40 -21.54% -19.61% -2.44% 7.31 9.10 9.32 0.57 0.54 7.32% Dec
MAIN 2.01 2.02 2.20 2.18 2.24 2.30 2.35 2.75% 2.68% 2.17% 17.66 17.20 16.83 2.22 2.04 7.83% Dec
MCC 1.31 1.53 1.58 1.27 0.96 0.79 0.87 -24.41% -17.71% 10.13% 8.05 9.78 8.89 1.09 0.96 16.46% Sep
MRCC 0.00 1.16 1.55 1.60 1.61 1.50 1.60 0.63% -6.83% 6.67% 9.81 10.53 9.87 1.79 1.63 10.67% Dec
NMFC 1.35 1.52 1.41 1.39 1.36 1.38 1.40 -2.16% 1.47% 1.45% 10.92 10.76 10.61 1.37 1.35 1.45% Dec
OFS 0.65 0.62 0.99 1.40 1.46 1.51 1.52 4.29% 3.42% 0.66% 9.88 9.56 9.49 1.48 1.45 1.99% Dec
OHAI 0.55 0.64 0.61 0.37 0.32 0.37 0.43 -13.51% 15.62% 16.22% 4.84 4.19 3.60 0.37 0.37 0.00% Dec
PSEC 1.63 1.57 1.19 1.03 0.96 0.94 0.96 -6.80% -2.08% 2.13% 9.79 10.00 9.79 0.97 0.92 5.32% Jun
PFLT 1.01 1.10 1.12 1.08 1.09 1.13 1.19 0.93% 3.67% 5.31% 12.68 12.23 11.61 1.17 1.11 5.31% Sep
PNNT 1.08 1.01 1.06 1.10 0.97 0.86 0.87 -11.82% -11.34% 1.16% 8.12 9.16 9.06 0.91 0.80 12.79% Sep
SAR 1.86 1.86 1.85 1.80 2.04 2.03 2.02 13.33% -0.49% -0.49% 10.53 10.58 10.63 2.07 1.98 4.43% Dec
SCM 0.00 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.39 1.36 1.40 4.51% -2.16% 2.94% 10.22 10.44 10.14 1.36 1.32 2.94% Dec
SLRC 2.20 1.89 1.56 1.52 1.68 1.76 1.85 10.53% 4.76% 5.11% 13.51 12.90 12.27 1.84 1.69 8.52% Dec
SUNS 1.31 1.18 1.20 1.33 1.42 1.42 1.46 6.77% 0.00% 2.82% 12.80 12.80 12.45 1.43 1.40 2.11% Dec
TCAP 2.16 2.25 2.08 2.16 1.61 1.82 1.96 -25.46% 13.04% 7.69% 11.69 10.34 9.60 1.89 1.74 8.24% Dec
TCPC 1.81 1.63 1.56 1.63 1.50 1.55 1.60 -7.98% 3.33% 3.23% 11.26 10.90 10.56 1.49 1.35 9.03% Dec
TCRD 1.38 1.45 1.42 1.41 1.35 1.11 1.15 -4.26% -17.78% 3.60% 7.41 9.01 8.70 1.54 1.48 5.41% Dec
TICC 1.12 1.04 1.05 0.73 0.39 0.65 0.51 -46.58% 66.67% -21.54% 18.41 11.05 14.08 1.21 0.46 115.38% Dec
TPVG 0.00 0.00 1.30 1.44 1.47 1.61 1.48 2.08% 9.52% -8.07% 9.51 8.68 9.45 1.43 1.40 1.86% Dec
TSLX 1.36 1.66 2.07 1.77 1.83 1.77 1.80 3.39% -3.28% 1.69% 11.25 11.63 11.43 1.89 1.66 12.99% Dec
WHF 0.00 1.28 1.14 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.39 -0.68% -0.68% -4.79% 9.89 9.96 10.46 1.47 1.39 5.48% Dec
BDC Average           -3.02 -1.99 1.85 10.40 10.56 10.42     11.84

Disclosure: I am/we are long AINV, ARCC, FDUS, MRCC, PFLT, PNNT, TCPC.