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MPLX Reports Q1/17

|Includes: MPLX LP (MPLX)

Drop downs cause growth in revenue, EBITDA, DCF . . along with growth in the number of units and amount of debt. The per unit numbers look pretty good. The debt metrics are still much better than average. The growth story coming from the words out of management's mouth is backed by the growth in the numbers.

MPLX LP metrics

For 2017, MPLX projects Adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion to $1.65 billion; DCF of $1.15 billion to $1.3 billion and Distribution growth rate of 12% to 15%.
  Q1-2017 Q4-2016 Q3-2016 Q2-2016 Q1-2016 Q4-2015 Q3-2015 Q2-2015 Q1-2015 Q4-2014 Q3-2014 Q2-2014 Q1-2014 Q4-2013 Q3-2013 Q2-2013 Q1-2013
Revenues 886 714 703 564 609 269 148.6 147.6 137.5 139.1 138.0 133.9 137.3 125.6 123.8 122.2 114.7
Costs 621 517 496 488 582 219 101.5 90.0 86.3 100.6 93.8 89.6 81.0 89.1 84.0 87.0 79.2
EBITDA 423 391 375 351 302 286 64.6 70.7 64.2 42.4 40.2 39.9 43.8 28.9 30.5 26.7 25.1
Total DCF dollars 354 318 285.0 285.0 236.0 227.0 52.5 61.0 57.4 32.1 32.9 36.2 37.3 28.3 31.0 27.2 28.0
GP's DCF dollars 60 55.0 49.0 46.0 40.0 38.0 8.6 6.8 4.0 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4
Preferred Distributions 16.0 16.0 16.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net DCF dollars 278 247.0 220.0 230.0 196.0 189.0 43.9 54.2 53.4 29.9 31.4 35.0 36.3 27.8 30.5 26.9 27.6
Units 367.000 356.000 346.000 331.000 300.000 146.00* 80.400 80.400 80.400 75.700 74.100 74.100 74.000 74.400 74.000 74.000 74.000
DCF/unit $0.7575 $0.6938 $0.6358 $0.6949 $0.6533 $1.2945 $0.5460 $0.6742 $0.6642 $0.3950 $0.4237 $0.4723 $0.4905 $0.3736 $0.4122 $0.3635 $0.3730
Upcoming Distrib. $0.5400 $0.5200 $0.5150 $0.5100 $0.5050 $0.5000 $0.4700 $0.4400 $0.4100 $0.3825 $0.3575 $0.3425 $0.3275 $0.3125 $0.2975 $0.2850 $0.2725
Calculated Coverage 1.40x 1.33x 1.23x 1.36x 1.29x * 1.16x 1.53x 1.62x 1.03x 1.19x 1.38x 1.50x 1.19x 1.38x 1.27x 1.37x
Reported Coverage 1.29x 1.25x 1.22x 1.24x 1.18x 1.20x 1.13x 1.47x 1.56x 0.97x 1.18x 1.37x 1.49x 1.19x 1.38x 1.25x 1.36x
Broker1_DCF/unit     $0.58 $0.56 $0.87 $0.51 $0.56 $0.57 $0.39 $0.41 $0.44 $0.47        
Broker2_DCF/unit   $0.69 $0.67 $0.68 $0.64                      
Broker3_DCF/unit   $0.68 $0.65 $0.68 $0.57                      
Broker4_DCF/unit   $0.69 $0.67 $0.68 $0.64 $0.54 $0.68 $0.67 $0.39 $0.43 $0.47 $0.50        
Broker5_DCF/unit     $0.59 $0.51 $0.57 $0.51 $0.56 $0.54     $0.44          
Broker6_DCF/unit   $0.85 $0.82 $0.83 $0.76 $0.65 $0.76 $0.51 Broker6 is not subtracting the GP dollars from DCF
Annualized_EBITDA 1,692 1,564 1,500 1,404 1,208 1,144 258 283 345              
Long term debt 6,655 4,423 4,412 4,401 4,715 5,225 753 753 757 644            
Debt/EBITDA 3.93x 2.83x 2.94x 3.13x 3.90x 4.57x 2.92x 2.66x 2.14x              
Interest Expense 66 52 51 52 55 20 5.2 6.2 5.3 2.0            
Interest Coverage 6.41x 7.52x 7.35x 6.75x 5.49x 14.30x 12.42x 11.40x 12.11x      

Disclosure: I am/we are long MPLX.