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Packaging Update 2/14/18

|Includes: Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY), BLL, GPK, PKG, WRK

All components with the exception of WST have reported their 2017 earnings. All forward earning projections updated last night. Remember in a big way - earnings projection accuracy in this sector is poor. At the same time - accuracy is not non-existent. There are some low P/E ratios that indicate a lack of faith in several analyst projections where 2018 earnings growth is very high.

One can find the 2017 data thru 12/06/17 posted here. In 2017, Avery Dennison (AVY) and Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) had superior 2017 price appreciation. Ball Corporation (BLL) and WestRock Company (WRK) have beat the S&P 500 (SPY). If the projections are somewhat close to being right, the party is not over.

pkg1 21418 I used negative imaging to highlight the 2018 projected EPS changes. Given the I personally would have problems giving full faith and confidence in any earnings change over 20% - I see the market doing the same thing. If so, that explains the low P/E ratios.

pkg2 21418 Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has been good to me - and has projections that indicate such goodness could continue. I have been on the cusp of buying Avery Dennison (AVY), Ball Corporation (BLL) and Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK).

Due to the 'accuracy' problem, I would not bet one just one. I would suggest buying three or four in smaller weightings or allocations.

Disclosure: I am/we are long pkg, WRK.