Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

AMT Reports Good Q1-18 - But Market May 'Want' Great

|About: American Tower Corporation (AMT)

American Tower (AMT) numbers are coming - but I want to start with the year to date numbers for the sub-sector:

Data Center + Cell Tower Update for 04-30-18
Yields are calculated on the Q1-18 dividend. The percent change numbers are since the first of the year - with the exception of the change in the dividend. The LTM or Last Twelve Month dividend change is since Q1-17.
The last 3 years number is the total dividend change since Q1-15 divided by three. Switch (NYSE:SWCH) owns data centers, is not a REIT, had its IPO in Oct 2017 and paid a div in Q4-17.
InterXion (INXN and trades on Nasdaq) owns European data centers, is not a REIT and does not pay a div. SBA Communications (NASDAQ:SBAC) is a Tower REIT without a current div. QTS to raise div paid in Q2 to $0.41.

Company
Comp. Share Price 18 FFO Est Q1-18 Div/ Div/ Percent Change LTM Last 3yr
Name Ticker 1-01 04-30 1-01 04-30 Yield FFO18 FFO19 Price Pr+Div FFO Target DivGr DivGr
CyrusOne (NASDAQ:CONE) 59.53 53.59 3.46 3.25 3.43% 56.62 48.81 -9.98 -9.21 -6.07 -6.89 9.52% 15.34%
CoreSite Realty (NYSE:COR) 113.90 104.10 5.04 4.99 3.77% 78.56 70.63 -8.60 -6.88 -0.99 -2.20 22.50% 44.44%
Digital Realty Trust (NYSE:DLR) 113.90 105.69 6.55 6.54 3.82% 61.77 57.06 -7.21 -6.32 -0.15 -4.00 8.60% 6.27%
Equinix Inc. (NASDAQ:EQIX) 453.22 420.79 18.64 18.73 2.17% 48.69 43.08 -7.16 -6.65 0.48 -3.11 14.00% 11.64%
Iron Mountain (NYSE:IRM) 37.73 33.94 2.34 2.13 6.92% 110.23 105.29 -10.05 -6.93 -8.97 -3.25 6.73% 7.86%
QTS Realty (NYSE:QTS) 54.16 35.39 2.93 2.63 4.63% 62.36 54.67 -34.66 -33.90 -10.24 -31.00 5.13% 9.37%
Data Center Average



4.12% 69.71
-12.94 -11.65 -4.32 -8.41 11.08%
Cell Towers
American Tower (NYSE:AMT) 142.67 136.36 7.40 7.09 2.05% 39.49 34.96 -4.42 -3.44 -4.19 -1.37 12.90% 22.22%
Crown Castle (NYSE:CCI) 111.01 100.87 5.26 5.26 4.16% 79.85 73.56 -9.13 -8.19 0.00 1.30 10.53% 9.35%
Cell Tower Average






-6.78 -5.81 -2.09


Sector Average



3.87% 67.20
-11.40 -10.19 -3.77 -6.32 11.24
The cap weighted Dow Jones REIT ETF RWR has a price change of -6.72% year to date - with dividends its total return is -6.17%.
The cap weighted Vanguard ETF VNQ has a price change of -8.29% year to date - with dividends its total return is -7.44%.
The Cohen & Steers 'Realty Majors' ETF ICF has a price change of -7.25% year to date - with dividends its total return is -6.49%.

The data:

AMT American Tower Q1-18 Q4-17 Q3-17 Q2-17 Q1-17 Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15

FFO 748 715 668 679 634 557 578 508 546 529 370

FFO/share 1.70 1.65 1.54 1.58 1.47 1.30 1.34 1.18 1.28 1.24 0.87

AFFO 759 688 705 681 681 631 612 570 587 539 552

AFFO/share 1.84 1.64 1.63 1.58 1.58 1.47 1.42 1.33 1.37 1.26 1.39

LTM AFFO 6.69 6.43 6.26 6.05 5.80 5.59 5.38 5.35 5.28 5.16 5.00

AFFO Guidance 7.50 7.45 6.72 6.65 6.52 6.39 5.76 5.69 5.65 5.61 4.98

Share Count 427.9 432.5 432.8 430.5 430.2 429.9 429.9 429.0 427.9 427.8 427.2

Revenue 1,289.0 1,704.5 1,680.8 1,662.4 1,616.2 1,529.5 1,514.8 1,442.2 1,289.0 1,280.0 1,237.9

Rev/share 3.01 3.94 3.88 3.86 3.76 3.56 3.52 3.36 3.01 2.99 2.90

FFO/sh to Rev/share 56.5% 41.9% 39.7% 40.9% 39.1% 36.5% 38.1% 35.1% 42.5% 41.5% 30.7%

EBITDA Margin 61% 60% 62% 61% 62% 61% 60% 60% 65% 63% 63%

Prop + Equipment 11,294.8 11,101.0 10,795.1 10,725,7 10,717.2 10,517.3 10,452.0 10,575.4 9,918.0 9,866.4 9,806.2

Goodwill 5,647.1 5,638.4 5,371.7 5,371.2 5,379.8 5,070.7 4,997.2 4,981.9 4,123.4 4,091.8 4,055.2

Intangible 11,940.2 11,783.3 11,581.4 11,728.7 11,826.9 11,274.6 11,558.0 11,590.7 9,814.0 9,837.9 10,012.4

Investments 28,882.1 28,522.7 27,748.2 27,825.6 27,923.9 26,862.6 27,007.2 27,148.0 23,855.4 23,796.1 23,873.8

Long term obligations 18,566.8 19,430.3 18,581.4 17,509.9 17,182.8 18,294.7 18,436.1 18,403.3 16,884.2 17,068.8 16,981.6

Retirement Obligation 1,215.0 1,175.3 1,054.1 1,026.5 1,011.1 965.5 965.1 951.8 888.0 856.9 811.6

Total Debt Calculated 19,783.8 20,605.6 19,635.5 18,536.4 18,193.9 19,260.2 19,401.2 19,355.1 17,772.2 17,925.7 17,793.2

Reported Net Debt 20,247 19,403 18,269 18,472 18,177 17,746 18,149 18,306 16,686 16,798 16,740

Leverage Ratio 4.8x 4.7x 4.4x 4.5x 4.6x 4.7x 5.0x 5.3x 5.0x 5.2x 5.4x

Adjusted EBITDA 1,062 1,031 1,040 1,021 998 936 915 869 833 802 779

LTM EBITDA 4,154 4,080 3,995 3,870 3,716 3,553 3,419 3,283 3,179 3,067 2,926

Debt/EBITDA calc 4.76x 5.05x 4.92x 4.79x 4.90x 5.42x 5.67x 5.61x 5.59x 5.84x 6.08x

Interest Coverage calc 5.3x 5.4x 5.5x 5.5x 5.4x 5.4x 5.4x 5.8x 5.2x 5.4x 5.2x

Interest Expense 200.0 190.1 188.8 187.0 183.7 186.0 190.2 181.0 159.9 149.7 149.8

FFO/Investments Ratio 10.38% 10.03% 9.63% 9.76% 9.08% 12.18% 8.56% 7.48% 9.15% 8.89% 6.20%
Reported Historical AFFO / share: Q2-15 1.26 Q1-15 1.25 Q4-14 1.10
Reported Historical EBITDA: Q2-15 762 Q1-15 724 Q4-14 661

What I am looking for:

(1) With LTM dividend growth of 12.90% - I want to see FFO and AFFO growth of at least 12.90% . . . so FFO and AFFO supports a continuation of the dividend growth.

Q1-18 FFO was 1.70 compared to Q1-17's 1.47 = 15.65% year over year FFO growth.

Q1-18 AFFO was 1.84 compared to Q1-17's 1.58 = 16.46% year over year AFFO growth.

I see the growth that I want to see.

(2) I DO NOT was to see significant deterioration of the credit metrics

Q1-18 Debt/EBITDA was 4.8x compared to Q4-17's 4.7x and Q1-17's 4.6x

Q1-18 interest coverage ratio was 5.3x compared to Q4-17's 5.4x and Q1-17's 5.4x

I see deterioration that is roughly insignificant.

(3) I want to see improving guidance - and guidance that is above the current analyst projections. AMT provides AFFO guidance while Nasdaq has what I believe to be projections for FFO. Thus I do not get part two of what I want to see, but I do get part one.

Numbers with which 'I am messing':


Investments 28,882.1 28,522.7 27,748.2 27,825.6 27,923.9 26,862.6 27,007.2 27,148.0 23,855.4 23,796.1 23,873.8

Reported Net Debt 20,274 19,403 18,269 18,472 18,177 17,746 18,149 18,306 16,686 16,798 16,740

Share Count 427.9 432.5 432.8 430.5 430.2 429.9 429.9 429.0 427.9 427.8 427.2
AMT American Tower Q1-18 Q4-17 Q3-17 Q2-17 Q1-17 Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15

Investments/share 67.50 65.95 64.11 64.63 64.91 62.49 62.82 63.28 55.75 55.62 55.88

Debt/share 47.38 44.86 42.21 42.91 42.25 41.28 42.22 42.67 39.00 39.27 39.18

Book Value Estimate 20.12 21.09 21.90 21.72 22.66 21.21 20.60 20.61 16.75 16.35 16.70

Dividend/share 0.75 0.70 0.66 0.64 0.62 0.58 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.46 0.44

Dividend/Book Est 14.91% 13.28% 12.05% 11.79% 10.94% 10.94% 10.68% 10.29% 12.18% 11.25% 10.54%

Share Count 427.9 432.5 432.8 430.5 430.2 429.9 429.9 429.0 427.9 427.8 427.2


Disclosure: I am/we are long CONE, COR, EQIX, AMT, CCI.