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The Evidence That MCC Was Dying

|About: Medley Capital (MCC)

The were 3 quarters out of the last 22 that Medly Capital (MCC) had positive "realized and unrealized gains".

Medley Capital Q2-18 Q1-18 Q4-17 Q3-17 Q2-17 Q1-17 Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-2015 Q3-2015 Q2-2015 Q1-2015 Q4-2014 Q3-2014 Q2-2014 Q1-2014 Q4-2013 Q3-2013 Q2-2013 Q1-2013
Realized & Unrealized Gains -27.570 -32.549 -39.192 -20.777 -6.570 -20.290 -3.809 -15.624 3.068 -14.127 -54.870 -34.151 -8.867 -5.970 -38.706 -11.554 -4.105 -4.113 -2.738 0.770 -8.873 1.127
Realized & Unrealized Gains/share -0.5061 -0.5975 -0.7195 -0.3814 -0.1206 -0.3725 -0.0699 -0.2854 0.560 -0.2533 -0.9746 -0.5988 -0.1533 -0.1021 -0.6590 -0.2105 -0.0813 -0.0937 -0.0682 0.0221 -0.2717 0.0393
Incentive Fees 0 0 0 0 0 0 896 1.633 2.794 3.149 3.916 4.338 4.310 4.438 5.098 5.097 5.174 4.139 4.258 3.589 3.008 2.599
Incentive Fees/Share 0 0 0 0 0 0.0164 0.0298 0.0510 0.0565 0.0696 0.0761 0.0745 0.0759 0.0868 0.0929 0.1024 0.0943 0.1060 0.1029

A BDC with several quarters of NII/share in the low 40s (in cents per share per quarter) falls to NII below two cents per quarter:

Medley Capital Q2-18 Q1-18 Q4-17 Q3-17 Q2-17 Q1-17 Q4-16 Q3-16 Q2-16 Q1-16 Q4-15 Q3-15 Q2-15 Q1-15 Q4-14 Q3-14 Q2-14 Q1-14 Q4-13 Q3-13
Interest income 8.794 14.341 17.307 18.818 20.729 21.728 23.964 24.462 27.440 28.946 31.368 34.579 33.770 34.236 35.763 29.794 29.436 25.995 25.083 21.653
Fee income 0.812 0.495 1.849 1.788 1.870 1.538 1.424 2.004 0.635 1.758 3.059 2.028 2.085 2.539 4.084 8.456 8.634 5.401 6.583 5.818
Total investment income 13.944 17.035 20.631 22.147 23.695 24.357 26.056 27.195 28.412 30.714 34.427 34.578 35.964 36.776 39.849 38.252 38.072 31.398 31.668 27.473
Net investment income 0.904 3.580 7.179 8.624 9.569 8.042 10.135 12.396 10.954 14.575 15.666 17.553 17.240 17.753 20.390 20.388 20.694 16.555 17.031 14.355
Investments @ fair value 0.635 0.747 0.836 0.837 0.881 0.926 0.917 0.914 1.042 1.036 1.115 1.216 1.204 1.272 1.223 1.245 1.043 0.959 0.818 0.740
Wt Av Share Count 54.474 54.474 54.474 54.474 54.474 54.474 54.474 54.747 54.763 55.761 56.300 57.032 57.859 58.500 58.734 54.877 50.503 43.883 40.162 34.881
TII/share $0.2560 $0.3127 $0.3788 $0.4066 $0.4350 $0.4471 $0.4783 $0.4967 $0.5188 $0.5508 $0.6115 $0.6063 $0.6216 $0.6286 $0.6785 $0.6969 $0.7538 $0.7155 $0.7885 $0.7876
NII/share $0.0166 $0.0657 $0.1318 $0.1583 $0.1757 $0.1476 $0.1860 $0.2264 $0.2000 $0.2614 $0.2783 $0.3078 $0.2980 $0.3035 $0.3472 $0.3715 $0.4098 $0.3772 $0.4240 $0.4115
Dividend/share $0.10 $0.10 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.22 $0.22 $.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.37 $0.37 $0.37 $0.37 $0.37 $0.37
NAV/share $6.43 $7.02 $7.71 $8.45 $8.84 $8.94 $9.39 $9.49 $9.76 $9.80 $10.01 $11.00 $11.53 $11.68 $11.74 $12.43 $12.65 $12.69 $12.68 $12.70
Wt Av Yield 10.00% 10.40% 10.60% 10.80% 11.0% 11.6% 11.7% 11.8% 12.0% 12.1% 12.2% 12.3% 12.4% 12.6% 12.5% 12.6% 13.4% 13.5% 13.6% 13.8%
NII/TII 6.48% 21.02% 34.80% 38.94% 40.38% 33.02% 38.78% 45.58% 39.92% 47.45% 45.50% 50.76% 47.94% 48.27% 51.17% 53.30% 54.35% 52.73% 53.78% 52.25%
Non-Accrual Dollars FV $63.2 $82.5 $65.2 $72.5 $67.6 $91.5 $60.2 $55.9 $68.5 $64.1 $25.5 $25.5 $12.4 $22.2 $15.7 $40.3 $9.8
Non-Accrual % @ Fair Value 10.0% 11.0% 7.8% 8.7% 7.7% 9.9% 6.6% 6.1% 6.6% 6.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.0% 1.8% 1.3% 3.2% 0.9%
PIK Dollars 2.412 1.687 3.210 3.327 3.617 $4.0 $4.9 $3.1 3.743 $3.5 $2.2 $2.6 $2.8 $2.3 $2.5 $2.9
PIK/TII Ratio 17.3% 9.90% 15.6% 15.0% 15.3% 16.4% 18.8% 11.4% 13.0% 11.4% 6.4% 7.5% 7.8% 6.3% 6.3% 7.6%
% of Portfolio in Energy 7.0% 6.9% 6.7% 6.5% 6.6% 6.3% 5.8% 5.8% 4.8% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 6.1% 6.4% 3.1% 3.4%
Number of Portfolio Companies 62 64 68 64 60 64 60 58 63 65 68 72 71 72 76 79 74 69 63

The good news - the degree of NAV change was less severe than the fall in income.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.