May 20 E-mail from GEI

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update with the latest posts for 16May2011

Front Page   Analysis Blog    Investing Blog    News Blog    Opinion Blog   Current Markets        Economic News:  Asia/Pacific   Europe    Middle East/Africa     Americas    USA Government

Selecting the new IMF Head - Awkward for China Posted: Thu, 19 May 2011 16:45:39 -0700   by Clive Corcoran Caption photo:  Dominique Strauss-Kahn                                        In a statement dated May 18th, 2011, Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK), has tendered his resignation as head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with immediate effect. Just how momentous an event is this, and have the capital markets fully discounted the ramifications? Will the post WWII "convention" that the IMF should be run by a European, but also someone that is entirely acceptable to the US, which holds almost 17% of the voting shares for the bank, be continued?    Read more at Opinion-->   Lower Oil Prices Posted: Wed, 18 May 2011 22:23:19 -0700   by James D. Hamilton                                                                                 It is possible that last week's dramatic oil price declines are only the beginning. In terms of what this means for American consumers, each $1/barrel change in the price of oil usually translates into 2.5 cents per gallon of gasoline at the pump. With the price of oil now down $16 from its peak, that might mean a drop of 40 cents per gallon in the retail price of gasoline. Continue reading at Analysis  →   Rail Traffic Slight Gain in w/e 14 May 2011 Posted: Thu, 19 May 2011 13:43:07 -0700 Econintersect:  Rail traffic YoY growth rose slightly year-over-year in week nineteen of 2011 ending 14 May 2011 according to Railfax. The biggest post-recession growth in rail traffic occurred in the 1st quarter of 2010, and year-over-year comparisons are increasingly compared to stronger data.  Performance year to date for 2011 has been  weakening, however the four week trendline is holding steady between 3% to 4% YoY improvement.   Last week rail traffic was up 3.2% year-over-year, while this week it is up slightly to 3.6% YoY.   The four week moving average remained unchanged at  2.9% YoY.  Year-to-date gains declined from 5.7% to  5.6%.    Read more at News -->   Americans Trust Their Own Economic Judgement Before Obama's Posted: Thu, 19 May 2011 13:24:07 -0700 Econintersect: According to a Rasmussen survey released today, 58% of Americans trust their own economic decision making judgment more than President Obama's.  The question: Whose judgment do you trust more when it comes to economic issues affecting the nation � yourself or President Obama?    Read more at News -->   Leading Economic Index Rocketship Ride Ends Posted: Thu, 19 May 2011 09:43:32 -0700 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) has taken a break from its ballistic two year path - nothing remains ballistic forever. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.3 percent in April to 114.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in March, and a 0.9 percent increase in February.   Continue reading at Analysis →     Philly Fed Business Outlook "Less Good" in May 2011 Posted: Thu, 19 May 2011 09:31:26 -0700 This month's Philly Fed business outlook survey has reverted to almost exact values of one year ago using unadjusted data. Early evidence is accumulating that the current recovery sub-cycle may be peaking, a call made by Econintersect's economic activity indicator in late March. Continue reading at Analysis→     April 2011 Existing Home Sales A Mediocre Start to the High Buying Season Posted: Thu, 19 May 2011 09:20:54 -0700 The April existing home sales data indicate a weak start to the high buying season. This could be indicating at least one more year of mediocre home sales and pricing. Continue reading at Analysis →   ECRI: Global Growth Peaking Posted: Thu, 19 May 2011 04:34:02 -0700 Econintersect: The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) who  Econintersect follows for its long range forecasts - is now forecasting a summer cyclical peak in global industrial output.  This includes China. In a Business Investors Daily article: The Economic Cycle Research Institute's long leading indicator of global industrial growth peaked at 0.7 in August 2010, predicting a cyclical peak for industrial activity this August. The index stood at 0.1 in March, near the lowest level since January 1980. "There's a downturn in global industrial growth in clear sight," said ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan.    Read more at News -->   Japan is Back in Recession - And Not Because of the Earthquake Posted: Wed, 18 May 2011 23:02:13 -0700  Econintersect:  The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan in March was expected to cause a decline in economic activity.  However, the preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP for Japan, which declined for at a 3.7% annualized rate, cannot be attributed to the natural disaster.  That occurred with less than three weeks left in the quarter.  The full impact of the March 11 event will not be felt until the second quarter, so it is likely that the recession underway in Japan will last at least three quarters.  Read more at News - ->

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