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$10 Oil? Prechter Is At It Again

A couple of days ago I posted an Instablog item that cited Robert Prechter's prediction of an upcoming major stock market collapse (here).  He's at it again.  Today Prechter is quoted in a Bloomberg article (here).

The prediction is that oil will hit a low between $4 and $10 sometime during the next decade.  The prediction comes from a technical analysis process known as the Elliott Wave Theory.

I think that this prediction, as well as a drop of the stock market significantly below the March 9 lows, requires the expected economic recovery to end quickly with a turn downward into depression.  While I expect economic difficulty is ahead, I think a full blown depression is unlikely.

That being said, I can't dismiss Prechter.  He has a good record at predicting cycle moves, if not the exact timing.

A contrasting view is offered by Chris Nelder at GetREALList (here), based on fundamental analysis.  Nelder believes that peak oil risks are not priced into the current market.  He says that oil, although it will be volatile, will steadily rise in price over the next decade.

Read both Prechter and Nelder; then pick your choice.  Or can they both be right?