New articles at Global Economic Intersect for September 15, 16 and 17:
- Unfortunately Retail Sales are Down in August 2010 by Steven Hansen
Historically August retail sales are higher than July – yet the advance unadjusted data shows that August 2010 is lower than July 2010. Read the full article.
- Business Sales Flat or Down in July 2010 by Steven Hansen
The July 2010 business sales look stronger when compared to 2005, 2006 and 2007. When compared to 2008 and 2009, the data looks weaker. Is the 2008 and 2009 sales the new normal or simply the result of a recession? Read the full article.
- U.S. Manufactured Exports Likely Fell in August 2010 by Steven Hansen
August 2010 data show imports into the United States have almost returned to pre-Great Recession highs, while exports are down YoY. Read the full article.
- Diesel Fuel Consumption Confirms a Slow Growth Economy by Steven Hansen
An economic index based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data fell 1% in August 2010 while EconIntersect's analysis of the unadjusted noisy data believes the index was unchanged. Read the full article.
- September 2010 Empire Survey Show Continuing Improvement by Steven Hansen
The September 2010 Empire State Manufacturing Survey continues to show improving trend lines on new orders and unfilled orders. This is a provisional confirmation of EconIintersect's view of continuing economic growth. Read the full article.
- Industrial Production Falls up to 1% in August 2010 by Steven Hansen
The August 2010 Industrial Production may be down as much as 1% MoM in August 2010, but up 5.95% YoY. The Federal Reserve says Industrial Production improved 0.2%. It appears that the Fed “improvement” is a result of some arcane detail in the seasonal adjustment. Read the full article.
- Outlook for Home Prices May Be Degrading by John Lounsbury
First American CoreLogic's Home Price Index shows no change for July 2010 compared to July 2009. However, the number of states with declining prices year-over-year is increasing. The national flat prices have received support from strong performances in two large markets: New York and California. If those two huge markets had been flat, the national price level would have been lower. Of course, if two other large markets, Florida and Illinois, had been flat, the year-over-year change for the nation would have been positive. Read the full article.
- GDP – A Valuable Metric (but Overused) by John Lounsbury
Gross Domestic Product (NYSEMKT:GDP) is one of the most widely followed metrics when people try to assess economic health. GDP recovery in this recession is relatively weaker than for any of the ten prior recessions. Other econometrics used to date recessions are also weaker than for previous recessions over the past 60+ years. Read the full article.
Producer Price Index (PPI) for August continued its 2010 anti-inflation tendency. The PPI is not a good leading indicator for consumer prices as historically only a portion of price increases actually leak through to the consumer. Read the full article.
The Philly Fed business survey improved in September 2010. But hold on, this is rather weak growth – not something to crow about, but better than a few months ago. This is consistent with EconIntersect's weak growth scenario for the next 30 to 60 days. Read the full article.
Disclosure: No stocks mentioned.