Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

My weekly view of the weekly charts

|Includes: DIA, DUG, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
All of the major equity averages remain overbought on their weekly charts except Dow Transports. The Transports are is now negative with a weekly close at 5060 below the 5-week modified moving average at 5113, and with declining momentum, which is a 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic.  Transports became under pressure and ended Friday down 0.9% year to date as fuel costs rose last week. This dynamic is a leading indication that my forecast for a Dow Industrial high at less than 12,600 can be confirmed in March.
 
10-Year Note – (3.422) Weekly and annual value levels are 3.630 and 3.796 with a daily pivot at 3.420, and annual risky level at 2.690. The rise in yield is still overdone with this yield back below its 200-week simple moving average at 3.588. 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1409.0) Annual, quarterly and weekly value levels are $1356.5, $1331.3 and $1316.1 with daily, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $1426.1, $1441.7 and $1452.6. The weekly chart profile is positive for the second week in a row.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($98.16) Monthly, weekly, and semiannual value levels are $91.83, $89.76, and $87.52, with daily and annual pivots at $99.18 and $99.91, and annual, semiannual and quarterly risky levels are $101.92, $107.14 and $110.87. A flag pole formed last week from the week’s range of $89.77 to $103.41, now the flag will be built.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.3750) My quarterly value level is 1.3227 with a weekly pivot at 1.3690 and daily risky level at 1.3864. The euro remains below its 200-week simple moving average at 1.3953.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Weekly Dow: (12,130) Weekly MOJO remains extremely overbought. The five-week modified moving average is 11,979 with the 200-week simple moving average at 10,894. My annual value level is 11,491 with this week’s risky level at 12,461.  
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
ValuEngine Valuation Warning - A ValuEngine Valuation Warning occurs when more than 65% of all stocks in the ValuEngine universe are calculated to be overvalued. On February 18th 68.6% of all stocks were overvalued, which was the highest of the year. Today 63.2% of all stocks are overvalued.
 
Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages
  • The Dow Industrial Average (12,130) My annual value level is 11,491 with a daily pivot at 12,148, and weekly risky level at 12,461.
  • The S&P 500 (1319.9) My quarterly value level is 1262.5 with a daily pivot at 1315.8 and weekly risky level at 1352.9.
  • The NASDAQ (2781) My daily value level is 2755 with weekly and quarterly risky levels are 2860 and 2853.
  • The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2346) My daily value level is 2325 with weekly and quarterly risky levels at 2436 and 2438.
  • Dow Transports (5060) My quarterly value level is 4671 with a daily pivot at 5075, and weekly and annual risky levels at 5150 and 5179.
  • The Russell 2000 (821.95) My quarterly value level is 765.50 with a daily pivot at 813.64 and weekly risky level at 826.33.
  • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) (463.69) My daily value level is 455.60 with my quarterly pivot at 465.93 and weekly risky level at 493.15.
 
Bank Failure Friday – The FDIC one more community bank last Friday, but it was not publicly-traded.
·        25 banks failed in 2008
·        140 banks failed in 2009 with a peak of 50 in the third quarter
·        157 banks failed in 2010
·        23 banks have failed year to date in 2011
·        345 banks have failed since the end of 2007
·        I still predict 500 to 800 bank failures in total by the end of 2012 into 2013.
·        The FDIC List of Problem Banks rose by 24 to 884 from 860, which is 11.5% of the 7,657 FDIC-insured financial institutions.
·        Friday’s closure had extreme overexposures to C&D and CRE loans that were 86.2% funded.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com, (800) 381-5576
 
Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
 
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.