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Japanese Nuclear Nightmare Causes Shift from Stocks to Bonds

|Includes: DIA, DUG, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
All daily charts for the major equity averages are negative – trading below 50-day simple moving averages with declining daily momentum (12x3x3 daily slow stochastic). There are no oversold measures as yet. The risk is to my annual risky level at 11,491.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The weekly chart for the Dow Industrial Average and S&P 500 remain overbought, but will join the other major averages with declining momentum (12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic) this week of next. This week if this additional weakness holds into this Friday’s close. For the Dow the weekly chart turns negative on a weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at 12,022 with momentum declining below 8.0 on a scale of zero to 10.0. This reading peaked at 9.5 on Friday, February 18th, at the market high of 12,391.29.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
While we are no longer under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning, stocks remain overvalued with 56.2% of all stocks overvalued. This measure needs to fall below 35% to call stocks cheap. Fifteen of Sixteen sectors remain overvalued, three by double-digit percentages.
 
Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages
  • The Dow Industrial Average (11,993) My annual value level is 11,491 with the 50-day simple moving average at 12,005, and daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 12,147, 12,400 and 12,741.
  • The S&P 500 (1296.4) My quarterly and annual value levels are 1262.5 and 1210.7 with the 50-day simple moving average at 1302, and daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 1313.0, 1327.3 and 1381.3.
  • The NASDAQ (2701) My monthly value level is 2629 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2746, and daily, weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 2733, 2753, 2853 and 2926. Semiannual and annual value levels are 2363, 2335 and 2172.
  • The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2291) My monthly value level is 2250 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2319, and daily, weekly, quarterly, and monthly risky levels at 2336, 2333, 2438 and 2499. Semiannual value levels are 2006.8 and 1927.6.
  • Dow Transports (5054) My quarterly value level is 4671 with the 50-day simple moving average at 5124, and weekly and annual pivots at 4995 and 5179, and daily risky level at 5224.
  • The Russell 2000 (798.17) My quarterly value level is 765.50 with my annual pivot at 784.16, the 50-day simple moving average at 803.65, and a weekly pivot at 805.37, and daily and monthly risky levels at 821.38 and 850.79. Semiannual value levels are 631.62 and 567.74.
  • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) (427.17) My monthly value level is 402.46 with the 50-day simple moving average at 445.76, and daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 436.86, 447.74, 453.89 and 465.93. Semiannual and annual value levels are 296.89, 270.98 and 259.30.
10-Year Note – (3.349) A trend below the 50-day simple moving average at 3.463 favors a continued flight to quality with my monthly risky level at 3.002. Tens tested 3.203 this morning. 
 
Comex Gold – ($1423.9) Weekly and annual value levels are $1404.1 and $1356.5, with a daily pivot at $1413.0, and monthly and quarterly pivots at $1437.7 and $1441.7, and semiannual risky level at $1452.6.
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($101.47) My annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92 have been strong magnets. My monthly value level is $96.43 with daily, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $103.40, $107.14 and $110.87.
 
 
The Euro – (1.3996) My quarterly value level is 1.3227 with daily, weekly, semiannual and monthly risky levels at 1.4002, 1.4089, 1.4624 and 1.4637.
 
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com, (800) 381-5576
 
Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
 
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”