On Thursday, the US Capital Markets consolidated the volatility we witnessed Monday through Wednesday. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury range is 3.349 to 3.139. Gold is between its 50-day simple moving average at $1380.1 and $1433.5. Crude oil is between $96.22 and $101.99, and hit $103.66 overnight. The euro is between 1.3859 and my weekly risky level at 1.4089. All major equity averages traded within Wednesday’s ranges on Thursday, which is between 11,555.48 and 11,856.70 for the Dow Industrial Average.
10-Year Note – (3.244) Weekly, annual, and semiannual value levels are 3.634, 3.796 and 4.268 with a daily pivot at 3.206, and monthly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at, 3.002, 2.690, 2.441, and 2.322.
Comex Gold – ($1405.20) Annual, quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1356.5, $1331.3, $1300.6 and $1187.2 with daily and weekly pivots at $1392.5 and $1404.1, and monthly and quarterly pivots at $1437.7 and $1441.7, and semiannual risky level at $1452.6.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($101.49) Daily, monthly, weekly, and semiannual value levels are $97.71, $96.43, $95.66 and $87.52 with annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92, and semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $107.14 and $110.87.
The Euro – (1.4018) My quarterly value level is 1.3227 with a daily pivot at 1.3898, and weekly, semiannual and monthly risky levels at 1.4046, 1.4089, 1.4624 and 1.4637.
Daily Dow: (11,775)Annual, quarterly, semiannual, and semiannual value levels are 11,491, 11,395, 10,959, and 9,449 with a daily pivot at 11,792, and weekly, monthly and annual risky levels at 12,400, 12,741 and 13,890.
Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages
- The Dow Industrial Average (11,775) My annual value level is 11,491 with a daily pivot at 11,792, and weekly and monthly risky levels at 12,400 and 12,741. A close on Friday below 11,856 will pull momentum (12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic) below 8.0, which to me is the confirmation of a cycle high. On February 18th this reading was 9.5. My first downside objective is my annual risky level at 11,491. Given a close in March below 11,491 the downside is to semiannual value levels at 10,959 and 9,449.
- The S&P 500 (1273.7) My annual value level is 1210.7 with my quarterly pivot at 1262.5, my daily pivot at 1272.9, and weekly and monthly risky levels at 1327.3 and 1381.3. A weekly close below 1284 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative.
- The NASDAQ (2636) My daily pivot is 2630 with weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 2753, 2853 and 2926. Semiannual and annual value levels are 2363, 2335 and 2172.
- The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2225) My daily pivot is 22216 with weekly, quarterly, and monthly risky levels at 2333, 2438 and 2499. Semiannual value levels are 2006.8 and 1927.6.
- Dow Transports (5019) My quarterly value level is 4671 with a weekly pivot at 4995, and daily and annual pivots at 5109 and 5179.
- The Russell 2000 (785.22) My quarterly value level is 765.50 with daily and annual pivots at 785.67 and 784.16, and a weekly pivot at 805.37, and monthly risky level at 850.79. Semiannual value levels are 631.62 and 567.74.
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) (417.97) My daily value level is 404.04 with weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 447.74, 453.89 and 465.93. Semiannual and annual value levels are 296.89, 270.98 and 259.30.
Chief Market Strategist
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com, (800) 381-5576
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go HERE to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
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