The key to sustaining gains requires that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) trends above its 50-day simple moving average at 445.43. The NASDAQ has traded several days above 2800 since testing 2840.51 on February 18th, but has not had a single daily close above 2800 since February 18th. All daily charts (except the SOX) are extremely overbought on their daily charts with the S&P 500, the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100 (NDA) below their February 18th highs at 1344.07 SPX, 2840.51 NASDAQ, and 2403.52 NDA.
Stocks Remain Overvalued Fundamentally – We are operating under a ValuEngine Valuation Watch with more than 60% of all stocks overvalued. Today 64.3% of all stocks are overvalued. In addition all 16 sectors are overvalued with 9 by double-digit percentages. A ValuEngine Valuation Warning occurs when more than 65% of all stocks are overvalued. This last occurred at the mid-February highs. The last time we had a ValuEngine Valuation Warning was February 18th.
10-Year Note – (3.545) The yield on the 10-Year is trading above its 50-day simple moving average at 3.472 as bond traders worry about inflation. Annual and quarterly value levels are 3.796 and 4.016 with a daily pivot at 3.513 and weekly and monthly risky levels at 3.275 and 3.181.
Comex Gold – ($1461.6) Gold traded to a new all time high at $1463.7, above my semiannual pivot at $1452.6. Daily and annual value levels are $1448.0 and $1356.5 with semiannual pivot at $1452.6, and weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1473.0, $1523.7 and $1559.9.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($108.59) Traded to a new 52-week high at $109.15, above my semiannual pivot at $107.14, but below this week’s risky level at $110.68. My annual and monthly value levels are $101.92, $101.09 and $99.91 with daily and semiannual pivots at $108.08 and $107.14, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at $110.68, $114.27 and $120.52.
The Euro – (1.4327) Traded to a new 52-week high at 1.4348 versus weekly and quarterly pivots at 1.4328 and 1.4308. Daily and monthly pivots are 1.4154 and 1.4170 with quarterly and weekly pivots at 1.4308 and 1.4328, and semiannual risky level at 1.4624.
Daily Dow: (12,427) Traded to a new 52-week high at 12,450.93 below this month’s risky level at 12,481. Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 12,317, 11,491, 10,959, and 9,449 with monthly, daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,481, 12,484, 13,774 and 13,890.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Key Levels for the Other Major Equity Averages –
All major equity averages are overbought on their daily charts except for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX),
which has a neutral daily chart. The SOX tested its 50-day simple moving average at 445.36.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
S&P 500 – (1335.5) My weekly pivot is 1328.1 with the February 18th high at 1344.07, and daily and monthly risky levels at 1342.4. and 1360.0. My quarterly value level is 1277.7.
NASDAQ – (2800) My weekly pivot is 2762 with a daily pivot at 2816, the February 18th high at 2840.51, and monthly risky level at 2898.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) –
(2332) My weekly pivot is 2329 with the February 16th
high at 2403.52, and daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 2345, 2477, 2590 and 2685.
Dow Utilities – (417.05) My semiannual value level is 397.84 with weekly and daily pivots at 412.49 and 419.00 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 423.25 and 448.17.
Dow Transports – (5344) My annual, weekly and monthly pivots are 5179, 5341 and 5371 with daily risky level at 5425. The high for the move is 5404.33 set on Friday, April 1st.
Russell 2000 – (854.17) Annual and quarterly value levels are 784.16 and 778.81 with a weekly pivot at 848.50, and daily and monthly risky levels at 863.47 and 856.67. Set a new high for the move on Tuesday at 858.05.
The SOX– (445.50) My weekly pivot is 427.31 with a daily pivot at 441.11, the 50-day simple moving average at 445.43, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 452.34, 498.75 and 531.14.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Chief Market Strategist
Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”