Negative weekly chart profiles are required to confirm a double-top for the major equity averages. This requires declining weekly MOJO (12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings) and weekly closes below the five-week modified moving averages at; 12,162 Dow Industrials, 1312.5 S&P 500, 2749 NASDAQ, 2313 NASDAQ 100 (NDX), 5185 Dow Transports, 821.07 Russell 2000 and 439.67 SOX. We could have mixed weekly closes this week followed by a confirmation a week from Friday.
Stocks Remain Overvalued Fundamentally – We are no longer operating under a ValuEngine Valuation Watch, which occurs when more than 60% of all stocks are overvalued. Today 58.3% of all stocks are overvalued. All 16 sectors are overvalued with 4 by double-digit percentages. A ValuEngine Valuation Warning occurs when more than 65% of all stocks are overvalued. This last occurred at the mid-February highs. The last time we had a ValuEngine Valuation Warning was February 18th.
10-Year Note – (3.464) My daily value level at 3.573 held on Wednesday. Daily, annual and quarterly value levels are 3.578, 3.796 and 4.016 with weekly and monthly risky levels at 3.293 and 3.181.
Comex Gold – ($1457.0) My semiannual pivot is a magnet at $1452.6. Monday’s all time high is $1478.0. My annual value level remains at $1356.5 with a semiannual pivot at $1452.6 with daily, weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1488.0, $1503.3, $1523.7 and $1559.9.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($106.97) My semiannual pivot at $107.14 is now a magnet. Crude oil tested a multi-year high at $113.46 on Monday. My annual and monthly value levels are $101.92, $101.09 and $99.91 with my semiannual pivot at $107.14, a daily pivot at $108.84, and quarterly and weekly risky levels at $114.27, $120.52 and $121.60.
The Euro – (1.4444) Remains overbought on its daily chart and reluctant to trend above 1.45. My monthly value level is 1.4170 with quarterly pivot at 1.4308, and daily, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4510, 1.4615 and 1.4624.
Daily Dow: (12,271)Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 12,161, 11,491, 10,959, and 9,449 with daily, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,334, 12,481, 13,774 and 13,890.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
S&P 500 – (1314.4) My weekly value level is 1308.6 with the 50-day simple moving average at 1315.0 and the February 18th high at 1344.07, and daily and monthly risky levels at 1318.7 and 1360.0. My quarterly value level is 1277.7.
NASDAQ – (2762) My weekly value level is 2713 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2755, a daily pivot at 2765, the February 18th high at 2840.51, and monthly risky level at 2898.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2317) Daily and weekly value levels are 2300 and 2270 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2323, the February 16th high at 2403.52, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 2477, 2590 and 2685.
Dow Utilities – (409.45) My semiannual value level is 397.84 with daily and weekly pivots at 408.84 and 410.11, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 423.25 and 448.17.
Dow Transports – (5232) Daily, annual and weekly value levels are 5194, 5179 and 5128 with the 50-day simple moving average at 5157 and monthly risky level at 5371. The high for the move is 5404.33 set on Friday, April 1st.
Russell 2000 – (823.93) Annual and quarterly value levels are 784.16 and 778.81 with the 50-day simple moving average at 818.58, a weekly pivot at 829.37, and daily and monthly risky levels at 831.27 and 856.67. Set a new high for the move at 859.08 last week.
The SOX– (427.89) My weekly pivot is 425.56 with the 50-day simple moving average at 444.37, and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 437.88, 452.34 and 498.75.
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Chief Market Strategist
Chief Market Strategist
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”