The Dow Industrial Average held my weekly value level at 12,161 on Thursday. It appears that negative weekly chart profiles will be delayed for another week, so a confirmation of a double-top for the major equity averages will have to wait. This requires declining weekly MOJO (12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings) and weekly closes below the five-week modified moving averages at; 12,162 Dow Industrials, 1312.5 S&P 500, 2749 NASDAQ, 2313 NASDAQ 100 (NDX), 5185 Dow Transports, 821.07 Russell 2000 and 439.67 SOX. We could have mixed weekly closes this week followed by a confirmation next Friday.
Stocks Remain Overvalued Fundamentally – We are no longer operating under a ValuEngine Valuation Watch, which occurs when more than 60% of all stocks are overvalued. Today 58.7% of all stocks are overvalued. All 16 sectors are overvalued with 4 by double-digit percentages. A ValuEngine Valuation Warning occurs when more than 65% of all stocks are overvalued. This last occurred at the mid-February highs. The last time we had a ValuEngine Valuation Warning was February 18th.
10-Year Note – (3.485) Daily, annual and quarterly value levels are 3.609, 3.796 and 4.016 with weekly, monthly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 3.293, 3.181, 2.690, 2.441, and 2.322.
Comex Gold – ($1475.1) Annual and semiannual value levels are $1356.5 and $1300.6 with my semiannual pivot at $1452.6, and daily, weekly, quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1493.8, $1503.27, $1523.7 and $1559.9. A new all time high was set this morning at $1480.5.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($108.40) Annual and monthly value levels are $101.92, $101.09 and $99.91 with semiannual and daily pivots at $107.14 and $109.06, and quarterly and weekly risky levels at $114.27, $120.52 and $121.60.
The Euro – (1.4488) My monthly value level is 1.4170 with a quarterly pivot at 1.4308, and daily, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4591, 1.4615 and 1.4624.
Daily Dow: (12,285)Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 12,161, 11,491, 10,959, and 9,449 with a daily pivot at 12,288, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,481, 13,774 and 13,890. Tested and held its 50-day simple moving average at 12,180 on Thursday.
S&P 500 – (1314.5) My weekly value level is 1308.6 with a daily pivot at 1314.2 and the February 18th high at 1344.07, and monthly risky level at 1360.0. My quarterly value level is 1277.7.
NASDAQ – (2760) My weekly value level is 2713 with a daily pivot at 2759 and the February 18th high at 2840.51, and monthly risky level at 2898.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) –
(2311) Daily and weekly value levels are 2302 and 2270 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2323, the February 16th
high at 2403.52, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 2477, 2590 and 2685.
Dow Utilities – (411.88) My semiannual value level is 397.84 with daily and weekly pivots at 409.30 and 410.11, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 423.25 and 448.17.
Dow Transports – (5250) Daily, annual and weekly value levels are 5160, 5179 and 5128 with my monthly risky level at 5371. The high for the move is 5404.33 set on Friday, April 1st.
Russell 2000 – (827.47) Annual and quarterly value levels are 784.16 and 778.81 with daily and weekly pivots at 824.60 and 829.37, and monthly risky level at 856.67. Set a new high for the move at 859.08 on April 6th.
The SOX– (428.41) My weekly pivot is 425.56 with the 50-day simple moving average at 443.88, and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 441.65, 452.34 and 498.75.
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Chief Market Strategist
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
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