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Monday’s Stock Weakness Held This Week’s Value Levels

Apr. 19, 2011 6:48 AM ET
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This week’s key value levels are; 12,023 Dow Industrials, 1287.7 S&P 500, 2670 NASDAQ, 2235 NASDAQ 100 (NDX), 5077 Dow Transports, 815.38 Russell 2000 and 405.31 SOX. Confirming a “double top” for stocks between the February 18th highs and the April highs requires weekly closes below the five-week modified moving averages at 12,200 Dow Industrial Average, 1314.1 S&P 500, 2753 NASDAQ, 2312 NASDAQ 100 (NDX), 5206 Dow Transports, 824.09 Russell 2000, 438.08 SOX. Closes at or below Monday’s lows will provide that confirmation.
10-Year Note – (3.374) There was a knee-jerk reaction to higher yields following the S&P downgrade of the US debt outlook to negative. The rise in yield held the 50-day simple moving average at 3.472 favoring lower yields with this week’s risky level at 3.271. Today’s pivot is 3.414.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Comex Gold – ($1496.9) Traded to a new all time high at $1498.6 on Monday versus this week’s pivot at $1.497.0. My semiannual value level is $1452.6 with the weekly pivot at $1497.0, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1523.7 and $1559.9.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude Oil ($107.40) My semiannual pivot at $107.14 remains a strong magnet. Annual and monthly value levels are $101.92, $101.09 and $99.91 with semiannual and daily pivots at $107.14 and $108.65, and quarterly and weekly risky levels at $114.27, $120.52 and $125.22.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Euro – (1.4234) My monthly value level at 1.4170 held on Monday. My quarterly pivot is 1.4308 with daily, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4447, 1.4620 and 1.4624.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Daily Dow: (12,202) The daily chart is negative with this week’s value level at 12,023, the 50-day simple moving average at 12,186 and the five-week modified moving average at 12,200. My monthly value level is 12,481.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
S&P 500 (1305.1) My daily, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1299.8, 1287.7 and 1277.7 with the 50-day simple moving average at 1315.0, and the February 18th high at 1344.07.
NASDAQ (2735) Daily and weekly value levels are 2722 and 2670 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2755 and the February 18th high at 2840.51, and monthly risky level at 2898.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2292) Daily and weekly value levels are 2287 and 2235 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2322, and the February 16th high at 2403.52. 
Dow Utilities (412.50) My semiannual value level is 397.84 with daily and weekly pivots at 407.02 and 413.77, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 423.25 and 448.17.
Dow Transports (5212) My weekly value level is 5077 with daily and annual pivots at 5145 and 5179, the 50-day simple moving average at 5168, my monthly risky level at 5371, and the April 1st high at 5404.33.
Russell 2000 (821.51) Weekly and daily value levels are 815.38 and 807.14 with the 50-day simple moving average at 820.36, my monthly risky level at 856.67, and the April 6th high at 859.08.
The SOX– (423.44) Daily and weekly value levels are 417.52 and 405.31 with the 50-day simple moving average at 442.60, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 452.34 and 498.75.
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
(800) 381-5576
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
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