Equity averages straddle 50-day simple moving averages (NYSE:SMA) on daily charts and five-week modified moving averages (MMA) on weekly charts.
The Dow Industrial Average and Dow Transports ended Tuesday above their 50-day SMAs and five-week MMAs. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and SOX ended Tuesday below their 50-day SMAs and five-week MMAs. The Russell 2000 was above its 50-day but below its five-week MMA. All seven of these averages need to be above all of these moving averages to avoid confirming a “Double Top” for stocks. If we end the week below all of these moving averages we will confirm the “Double Top”.
10-Year Note – (3.361) The 50-day simple moving average is 3.467 with this week’s risky level at 3.271 as a modest flight to quality is trumping the S&P downgrade of the US debt outlook to negative.
Comex Gold – ($1496.9) Traded to another new all time high at $1503.8 this morning. My semiannual value level is $1452.6 with the weekly pivot at $1497.0, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1523.7 and $1559.9.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($108.15) After a low of $105.50 on Tuesday crude oil closed back above my semiannual pivot at $107.14, and traded as high as $109.60 this morning. Annual and monthly value levels are $101.92, $101.09 and $99.91 with semiannual and daily pivots at $107.14 and $106.82, and quarterly and weekly risky levels at $114.27, $120.52 and $125.22.
The Euro – (1.4333) My monthly value level at 1.4170 held on Monday and is trading around 1.4450 this morning. My quarterly pivot has become a magnet at 1.4308 with daily, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4502, 1.4620 and 1.4624.
Daily Dow: (12,267) This week’s value level is 12,023, the 50-day simple moving average at 12,189 and the five-week modified moving average at 12,200. My monthly risky level is 12,481.
S&P 500 – (1312.6) My daily, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1298.9, 1287.7 and 1277.7 with the 50-day simple moving average at 1315.0, the five-week modified moving average at 1314, and the February 18th high at 1344.07.
NASDAQ – (2745) Daily and weekly value levels are 2717 and 2670 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2754, the five-week modified moving average at 2753 and the February 18th high at 2840.51, and monthly risky level at 2898.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2307) Daily and weekly value levels are 2284 and 2235 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2321, the five-week MMA at 2312, and the February 16th high at 2403.52.
Dow Transports – (5239) My weekly value level is 5077 with daily and annual pivots at 5161 and 5179, the 50-day simple moving average at 5171, the five-week modified moving average at 5206, my monthly risky level at 5371, and the April 1st high at 5404.33.
Russell 2000 – (823.01) Weekly and daily value levels are 815.38 and 806.33 with the 50-day simple moving average at 820.68, the five-week modified moving average at 824.09, my monthly risky level at 856.67, and the April 6th high at 859.08.
The SOX– (425.26) Daily and weekly value levels are 416.17 and 405.31 with the 50-day simple moving average at 441.87, the five-week modified moving average at 438.08, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 452.34 and 498.75.
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Chief Market Strategist
Chief Market Strategist
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
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