The odds of confirming a “Double Top” have diminished near term
Apr. 21, 2011 6:32 AM ET
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Banks, Homebuilders, chartest
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I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. I became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gave me the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which I feature in my newsletters, and market commentary. I formed Global Market Consultants Ltd at the end of 1988 and expanded on my analysis to include proprietary analytics. While operating Global Market Consultants I was the U.S. Treasury Strategist at Smith Barney 1991 through 1995, was Chief Financial Strategist at William R. Hough in St. Petersburg, Florida 1997 through 1999, and was Chief Market Strategist at Joseph Stevens 1999 into 2008. I began covering U.S. equities in 1997 and began to use ValuEngine as my stock screening tool in 2002 before joining them as Chief Market Strategist between September 2008 and November 2014. I was the Chief Market Strategist at Niagara International Capital Limited between December 2009 and December 2014. In 2005 through 2007 I wrote columns on RealMoney.com and authored TheStreet.com Technology Report. My unique coverage called for the housing bubble to pop in 2005 and for regional banks to collapse in 2006 and early-2007. This is when my proprietary analytics became known as value levels at which to buy on weakness and risky levels at which to sell on strength. I became an Expert Contributor for TheStreet.com in April 2012 and currently write one or two stories a day covering subjects such as: The housing market, community and regional banks, momentum stocks, earnings profiles both before companies report quarterly results and provide scorecards after reporting results. Many of my stories we include moving averages, momentum readings, analysts’ earnings estimates, and value levels and risky levels. Over the years I made frequent appearances on financial TV beginning in 1993 on CNBC covering the U.S. Treasury auctions and as a substitute for John Murphy on his segment called ‘Tech Talk’. I also occasionally appeared on CNN and Bloomberg. On almost every holiday I appeared for an hour covering stocks on a call-in / email-the-expert ‘Talking Stocks’ show on CNNfn. In 2002 I had my own show on Yahoo Finance TV called, ‘Traders’ Club with Richard Suttmeier’. When Fox Business began in late-2007 I was a frequent guest on ‘Money for Breakfast’. I also made appearances on Reuters TV, Yahoo Finance Breakout and BNN in Toronto. In recent years I shifted my focus to making presentations to various investor groups such as: MBA students at the University of Florida and South Florida, The American Association of Individual Investors, Wells Fargo Advisors, The Executive Form at the National Arts Club in NYC, Investors Roundtable of Wilmington NC, The Market Technicians Association, The Information Management Network when they cover Florida Banks in Ft Lauderdale, and the University of Tampa Investment Club. I was president of the Society for the Investigation of Recurring Events in NYC from 2000 into 2009. My background began on Long Island, New York. I graduated from Bay Shore High School in 1962, and was a member of the Honor Society, Golf Team, Math Team and Band. I graduated from Georgia Tech in Atlanta with a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering Degree in 1966, and was a member of Chi Phi Fraternity, the freshmen Golf Team, and was the captain of the Bowling team. I won the South East Regional Bowling Tournament in 1964 and won the National Intercollegiate Bowling Championship in the Doubles Event that same year. I graduated from Brooklyn Poly in 1970 with a Master of Science in Operations Research, Systems Analysis. My first job out of Georgia Tech was with Grumman Aerospace on Long Island 1966 through 1970 with project assignments on the Lunar Module and F-14 Tomcat Fighter Jet contract proposal. I was with Bank of New York in 1971, as the Senior Systems Analyst for computer applications for the Bank’s International Division. When I shifted my to Wall Street In 1972 I became a U.S. Government securities trader at Briggs Schaedle, a primary dealer where my father was Vice Chairman and my brother was Sales Manager. In 1977 I joined Loab Rhodes as a U.S. Treasury trader. Then my career advanced as noted above. I have been married to Linda since June 1969 and we are the parents of Stephen and Jason Suttmeier. Stephen has been married to Jennifer since 2004 and we have a granddaughter Emily and a grandson Robert. We have been living in Land O’ Lakes, Florida with Jason and his partner James since June 2009.
All the major equity averages I track are now above their 50-day simple moving averages and their five-week modified moving averages. This delays the confirmation of a “Double Top”. Since the mid-March lows there have been several false breakouts as only the Dow Industrial Average reached a new 2011 high at 12,475.53 on Wednesday. We may be setting investors up for that “Sell in May and Walk Away”? The Regional Banking Index (BKX), which includes the “too big to fail” banks has negative daily and weekly charts. What did I say four years ago? You can not have a bull market for stocks with the major banks in a bear market!
10-Year Note – (3.408) The 50-day simple moving average is 3.462 with daily and weekly risky levels at 3.302 and 3.271.
Comex Gold – ($1501.7) Traded to another new all time high at $1509.5 this morning as the daily chart becomes more overbought. My semiannual value level is $1452.6 with the weekly pivot at $1497.0, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1523.7 and $1559.9.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($111.35) After a low of $105.50 on Tuesday crude oil closed back above my semiannual pivot at $107.14, and traded as high as $112.48 this morning. Daily, annual and monthly value levels are $104.13, $101.92, $101.09 and $99.91 with my semiannual pivot at $107.14, and quarterly and weekly risky levels at $114.27, $120.52 and $125.22.
The Euro – (1.4513) My monthly value level at 1.4170 held on Monday. The euro is trading above my weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4620 and 1.4624 this morning. My quarterly pivot is 1.4308 with weekly and semiannual pivots at 1.4620 and 1.4624, and semiannual risky level at 1.4989.
Daily Dow: (12,454) This week’s value level is 12,023, the 50-day simple moving average at 12,194 and the five-week modified moving average at 12,200. Wednesday’s new 2011 high at 12,475.53 came within six points of my monthly risky level is 12,481.
S&P 500 – (1330.4) My daily, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1308.7, 1287.7 and 1277.7 with the 50-day simple moving average at 1315, the five-week modified moving average at 1314, and the February 18th high at 1344.07.
NASDAQ – (2803) Daily and weekly value levels are 2750 and 2670 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2754, the five-week modified moving average at 2753 and the February 18th high at 2840.51, and monthly risky level at 2898.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2358) Daily and weekly value levels are 2315 and 2235 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2321, the five-week MMA at 2312, and the February 16th high at 2403.52.
Dow Transports – (5259) My weekly value level is 5077 with annual and daily pivots at 5179 and 5260, the 50-day simple moving average at 5174, the five-week modified moving average at 5206, my monthly risky level at 5371, and the April 1st high at 5404.33.
Russell 2000 – (839.45) Daily and weekly value levels are 818.21 and 815.38 with the 50-day simple moving average at 821.16, the five-week modified moving average at 824.09, my monthly risky level at 856.67, and the April 6th high at 859.08.
The SOX– (443.42) Daily and weekly value levels are 420.25 and 405.31 with the 50-day simple moving average at 441.48, the five-week modified moving average at 438.08, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 452.34 and 498.75.
The Regional Banking Index (BKX) – ($50.25) My monthly value level is $49.66 with the 200-day simple moving average at $49.47 and the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages at $51.81 and $52.61. The BKX is down 3.8% year to date and down 58.5% from the February 2007 high.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Chief Market Strategist
Chief Market Strategist
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
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