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The odds of confirming a “Double Top” have diminished near term

All the major equity averages I track are now above their 50-day simple moving averages and their five-week modified moving averages. This delays the confirmation of a “Double Top”. Since the mid-March lows there have been several false breakouts as only the Dow Industrial Average reached a new 2011 high at 12,475.53 on Wednesday. We may be setting investors up for that “Sell in May and Walk Away”? The Regional Banking Index (BKX), which includes the “too big to fail” banks has negative daily and weekly charts. What did I say four years ago? You can not have a bull market for stocks with the major banks in a bear market!
 
10-Year Note – (3.408) The 50-day simple moving average is 3.462 with daily and weekly risky levels at 3.302 and 3.271.
 
Comex Gold – ($1501.7) Traded to another new all time high at $1509.5 this morning as the daily chart becomes more overbought. My semiannual value level is $1452.6 with the weekly pivot at $1497.0, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1523.7 and $1559.9.
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($111.35) After a low of $105.50 on Tuesday crude oil closed back above my semiannual pivot at $107.14, and traded as high as $112.48 this morning. Daily, annual and monthly value levels are $104.13, $101.92, $101.09 and $99.91 with my semiannual pivot at $107.14, and quarterly and weekly risky levels at $114.27, $120.52 and $125.22.
 
 
The Euro – (1.4513) My monthly value level at 1.4170 held on Monday. The euro is trading above my weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4620 and 1.4624 this morning. My quarterly pivot is 1.4308 with weekly and semiannual pivots at 1.4620 and 1.4624, and semiannual risky level at 1.4989.
 
Daily Dow: (12,454) This week’s value level is 12,023, the 50-day simple moving average at 12,194 and the five-week modified moving average at 12,200. Wednesday’s new 2011 high at 12,475.53 came within six points of my monthly risky level is 12,481.
 
S&P 500 (1330.4) My daily, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1308.7, 1287.7 and 1277.7 with the 50-day simple moving average at 1315, the five-week modified moving average at 1314, and the February 18th high at 1344.07.
 
NASDAQ (2803) Daily and weekly value levels are 2750 and 2670 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2754, the five-week modified moving average at 2753 and the February 18th high at 2840.51, and monthly risky level at 2898.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2358) Daily and weekly value levels are 2315 and 2235 with the 50-day simple moving average at 2321, the five-week MMA at 2312, and the February 16th high at 2403.52. 
 
Dow Transports (5259) My weekly value level is 5077 with annual and daily pivots at 5179 and 5260, the 50-day simple moving average at 5174, the five-week modified moving average at 5206, my monthly risky level at 5371, and the April 1st high at 5404.33.
 
Russell 2000 (839.45) Daily and weekly value levels are 818.21 and 815.38 with the 50-day simple moving average at 821.16, the five-week modified moving average at 824.09, my monthly risky level at 856.67, and the April 6th high at 859.08.
 
The SOX– (443.42) Daily and weekly value levels are 420.25 and 405.31 with the 50-day simple moving average at 441.48, the five-week modified moving average at 438.08, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 452.34 and 498.75.
 
The Regional Banking Index (BKX) – ($50.25) My monthly value level is $49.66 with the 200-day simple moving average at $49.47 and the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages at $51.81 and $52.61. The BKX is down 3.8% year to date and down 58.5% from the February 2007 high.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
  
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
 
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”