The Dow Industrial Average reached a new year to date high at 12,506 on Thursday, while all the other equity averages I track did not. The markets will be sensitive to the Fed Statement Wednesday afternoon and the first ever press conference following an FOMC meeting by Fed chief Ben Bernanke. If the Dow holds my monthly pivot at 12,481 on a daily close basis, the other major averages have upside to their monthly risky levels; 1360.0 S&P 500, 2898 NASDAQ, 2477 NASDAQ 100 (NDX), 5371 Dow Transports, 856.67 Russell 2000, and 452.34 SOX.
10-Year Note – (3.394) Annual and quarterly value levels are 3.796 and 4.016 with a weekly pivot at 3.430, and daily and monthly risky levels at 3.264 and 3.181. Will Bernanke tip his hand on the end of QE2 at the end of June?
Comex Gold – ($1505.9) My semiannual value level is $1452.6 with weekly and daily pivots at $1501.2 and $1509.8, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1523.7 and $1559.9. Overbought Gold has been setting a new all time almost every day including today at $1518.6.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($112.26) Semiannual, annual and monthly value levels are $107.14, $101.92, $101.09 and $99.91 with my daily pivot at $109.21, and quarterly and weekly risky levels at $114.27, $116.86 and $120.52. Crude oil is overbought on its weekly chart.
The Euro – (1.4551) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.4308 and 1.4170 with a daily pivot at 1.4467, and semiannual and weekly risky levels at 1.4624 and 1.4771. The euro is extremely overbought on its weekly chart.
Weekly Dow: (12,506) The weekly chart shows overbought MOJO and is thus positive with the Dow above its 5-week modified moving average at 12,262. We needed a weekly close above my monthly risky level at 12,481 to indicate upside potential to my quarterly and annual risky levels at 13,774 and 13,890. This occurred on Friday, but the other major indices need to follow. A weekly close below 12,262 indicates risk to my annual value level at 11,491.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
S&P 500 – (1337) Daily, weekly and quarterly value levels are 1316.8, 1318.7 and 1277.7 with my monthly risky level at 1360.0.
NASDAQ – (2820) Daily and weekly value levels are 2774 and 2744 my monthly risky level at 2898.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) –
(2377) Daily and weekly value levels are 2340 and 2288 with monthly risky level at 2477.3.
Dow Transports – (5291) My annual value level is 5179 with a daily pivot at 5287, and weekly and monthly pivots at 5365 and 5371.
Russell 2000 – (845.64) Weekly and daily value levels are 835.89 and 829.24 with my monthly risky level at 856.67.
The SOX– (443.20) Daily and weekly value levels are 429.19 and 408.52 with monthly and quarterly risky levels at 452.34 and 498.75.
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Chief Market Strategist
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
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