Bernanke News Conference – Key to Stocks and Bond Yields
Apr. 27, 2011 6:39 AM ET
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Banks, Homebuilders, chartest
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2006
I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. I became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gave me the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which I feature in my newsletters, and market commentary. I formed Global Market Consultants Ltd at the end of 1988 and expanded on my analysis to include proprietary analytics. While operating Global Market Consultants I was the U.S. Treasury Strategist at Smith Barney 1991 through 1995, was Chief Financial Strategist at William R. Hough in St. Petersburg, Florida 1997 through 1999, and was Chief Market Strategist at Joseph Stevens 1999 into 2008. I began covering U.S. equities in 1997 and began to use ValuEngine as my stock screening tool in 2002 before joining them as Chief Market Strategist between September 2008 and November 2014. I was the Chief Market Strategist at Niagara International Capital Limited between December 2009 and December 2014. In 2005 through 2007 I wrote columns on RealMoney.com and authored TheStreet.com Technology Report. My unique coverage called for the housing bubble to pop in 2005 and for regional banks to collapse in 2006 and early-2007. This is when my proprietary analytics became known as value levels at which to buy on weakness and risky levels at which to sell on strength. I became an Expert Contributor for TheStreet.com in April 2012 and currently write one or two stories a day covering subjects such as: The housing market, community and regional banks, momentum stocks, earnings profiles both before companies report quarterly results and provide scorecards after reporting results. Many of my stories we include moving averages, momentum readings, analysts’ earnings estimates, and value levels and risky levels. Over the years I made frequent appearances on financial TV beginning in 1993 on CNBC covering the U.S. Treasury auctions and as a substitute for John Murphy on his segment called ‘Tech Talk’. I also occasionally appeared on CNN and Bloomberg. On almost every holiday I appeared for an hour covering stocks on a call-in / email-the-expert ‘Talking Stocks’ show on CNNfn. In 2002 I had my own show on Yahoo Finance TV called, ‘Traders’ Club with Richard Suttmeier’. When Fox Business began in late-2007 I was a frequent guest on ‘Money for Breakfast’. I also made appearances on Reuters TV, Yahoo Finance Breakout and BNN in Toronto. In recent years I shifted my focus to making presentations to various investor groups such as: MBA students at the University of Florida and South Florida, The American Association of Individual Investors, Wells Fargo Advisors, The Executive Form at the National Arts Club in NYC, Investors Roundtable of Wilmington NC, The Market Technicians Association, The Information Management Network when they cover Florida Banks in Ft Lauderdale, and the University of Tampa Investment Club. I was president of the Society for the Investigation of Recurring Events in NYC from 2000 into 2009. My background began on Long Island, New York. I graduated from Bay Shore High School in 1962, and was a member of the Honor Society, Golf Team, Math Team and Band. I graduated from Georgia Tech in Atlanta with a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering Degree in 1966, and was a member of Chi Phi Fraternity, the freshmen Golf Team, and was the captain of the Bowling team. I won the South East Regional Bowling Tournament in 1964 and won the National Intercollegiate Bowling Championship in the Doubles Event that same year. I graduated from Brooklyn Poly in 1970 with a Master of Science in Operations Research, Systems Analysis. My first job out of Georgia Tech was with Grumman Aerospace on Long Island 1966 through 1970 with project assignments on the Lunar Module and F-14 Tomcat Fighter Jet contract proposal. I was with Bank of New York in 1971, as the Senior Systems Analyst for computer applications for the Bank’s International Division. When I shifted my to Wall Street In 1972 I became a U.S. Government securities trader at Briggs Schaedle, a primary dealer where my father was Vice Chairman and my brother was Sales Manager. In 1977 I joined Loab Rhodes as a U.S. Treasury trader. Then my career advanced as noted above. I have been married to Linda since June 1969 and we are the parents of Stephen and Jason Suttmeier. Stephen has been married to Jennifer since 2004 and we have a granddaughter Emily and a grandson Robert. We have been living in Land O’ Lakes, Florida with Jason and his partner James since June 2009.
Today the Fed Statement following the FOMC meeting will be released at noon. At 2:15 PM Fed Chief Bernanke will hold the first ever Fed news conference. The interpretation of Bernanke’s comments and question responses should set the tone for further market upside, or be the catalyst for downside risk. Today we are under a ValuEngine Valuation Watch as 60% of all stocks are overvalued. If the yield on the 30-Year bond rises and stocks remain firm we could become under a ValuEngine Valuation Warning with at least 65% of all stocks overvalued. The prior ValuEngine Valuation Warning occurred at the top on February 18th.
10-Year Note – (3.307) My weekly value level is 3.430 with daily and monthly risky levels at 3.293 and 3.181.
Comex Gold – ($1502.1) Gold tested a new intraday high at $1519.2 on Monday versus my quarterly risky level at $1523.7. My semiannual value level is $1452.6 with a weekly pivot at $1501.2, and quarterly, daily and monthly risky levels at $1523.7, $1537.6 and $1559.9.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($112.05) My Semiannual value level is $107.14 with daily, quarterly and weekly risky levels at $113.77, $114.27, $116.86 and $120.52.
The Euro – (1.4640) Quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.4308 and 1.4170 with daily and quarterly pivots at 1.4533 and 1.4624, and weekly risky level at 1.4771.
Daily Dow: (12,595) My weekly value level is 12,404 with daily and monthly pivots at 12,557 and 12,481 and Tuesday’s new 2011 high at 12,613.16. No nearby risky levels.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Dow is above its monthly pivot at 12,481 with the Transports above its monthly pivot at 5371. The other major averages lag their monthly risky levels; 1360.0 S&P 500, 2898 NASDAQ, 2477 NASDAQ 100 (NDX), 856.67 Russell 2000 was tested, and 452.34 SOX. New year to date highs have been achieved except for; 859.08 on April 6th on Russell 2000, and 474.33 on February 18th on SOX.
S&P 500 – (1347.2) My weekly value level is 1318.7 with a daily pivot at 1341.0, Tuesday’s new 2011 high at 1349.55 and this month’s risky level at 1360.0.
NASDAQ – (2848) My weekly value level is 2744 with a daily pivot at 2827, Tuesday’s new 2011 high at 2856.61, and my monthly risky level at 2898.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2396) My weekly value level is 2288 with a daily pivot at 2379, Tuesday’s new 2011 high at 2405.23, and monthly risky level at 2477.
Dow Transports – (5399) My annual value level is 5179 with daily, weekly and monthly pivots at 5353, 5365 and 5371, and the Tuesday’s new 2011 high at 5416.60.
Russell 2000 – (853.04) My weekly value level is 835.89 with a daily pivot at 852.15, my monthly risky level at 856.67 and the April 6th high at 859.08.
The SOX– (450.48) My weekly value level is 408.52 with a daily pivot at 447.52, my monthly risky level at 452.34 and the February 18th high at 474.33.
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Chief Market Strategist
Chief Market Strategist
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”
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