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Weekly “Key Reversals” for Gold and Crude Oil and the Euro

A weekly key reversal occurs when a market sets a new high for the move and then ends the week below the prior week’s low. Gold traded to an all time high at $1577.4 last Monday and ended the week just below last week’s low at $1492.00. Crude oil tested a multi-year high at $114.83 last Monday and ended the week well below last week’s low at $110.71. The euro traded to a new high for the move at 1.4941 on Wednesday and ended the week below last week’s low at 1.4496. The only equity average I track that had a weekly key reversal is the Russell 2000.
 
10-Year Note – (3.162) Weekly, Monthly, and annual value levels are 3.304, 3.757 and 3.796 with a daily pivot at 3.181, and annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.690, 2.441, and 2.322.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1491.2) Semiannual and annual value levels are $1452.6 and $1356.5 with quarterly, weekly, daily and monthly risky levels at $1531.7, $1536.8, $1538.6 and $1589.3.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($97.78) A semiannual value level is $87.52 with annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92 with daily, semiannual, weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at $102.99, $107.14, $112.45, $119.17 and $120.52.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4350) My quarterly value level is 1.4308 with quarterly, daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 1.4624, 1.4721, 1.4857, and 1.5144.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Weekly Dow: (12,639) The weekly chart remains positive with overbought MOJO and weekly close above the five-week modified moving average at 12,423. My annual value level is 11,491 with weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,794, 13,663, 13,774 and 13,890.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1340.2) YTD high – 1370.58 on 5/2. No nearby value level with weekly, daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1352.3, 1355.1, 1490.5 and 1500.4. The October 2007 high is 1576.06.
 
NASDAQ (2828) Multi-year high – 2887.75 on 5/2. No nearby value level with daily, weekly, quarterly, monthly and annual risky levels at 2846, 2856, 3209, 3228 and 3243. 
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2383) Multi-year high – 2427.75 on 5/2. My weekly pivot is 2380 with daily and annual risky levels at 2394 and 2590.     
 
Dow Transports (5472) All time high – 5565.78 on 5/2. My annual value level is 5179 with a weekly pivot at 5517, and daily, monthly and annual risky levels at 5545, 6028 and 6131.
 
Russell 2000 (833.34) All time high – 868.57 on 5/2. My annual value level is 784.16 with daily, weekly, and quarterly risky levels at 838.62, 868.01 and 949.02.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The SOX– (443.66) My daily value level is 438.32 with weekly and quarterly risky levels at 448.29 and 498.75. The SOX is well below its July 2007 high at 549.39.
 
Richard Suttmeier Speaking Event – The Executive Forum at the National Arts Club in NYC
 
I will be discussing why “The Great Credit Crunch” continues. The event is on Tuesday, May 17th at The National Arts Club, 15 Gramercy Park South (E. 20th St.) Cocktails 5:45 PM, Dinner 6:30 PM, Presentation 7:30 PM. Use this link to register - http://www.execforumnyu.org/events.html
 
Tracking Comex Copper - (396.35) has been moving sideways to down since February 15th and closed below its 200-day simple moving at 398.40 for the first time since August 26, 2010. The February 15th high was 464.95, right on my annual risky level for 2011. Annual and semiannual value levels are 386.09 and 360.56 and weekly risky level at 430.03.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
 
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”