Monday was a day of consolidation for the US Capital Markets

The yield on the 10-Year note continued to trend lower on a flight to quality. This will be put to a test over the next three days with auctions of $32 billion 3-Year notes on Tuesday, $24 billion 10-Year notes on Wednesday and $16 billion 30-Year bonds on Thursday. Gold rebounded to $1517.7 this morning, which is shy of my quarterly pivot at $1523.7 and the May 2^nd all time high at $1577.4. Crude oil reversed to the upside as my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92 became value levels once again. The euro slumped to a low of 1.4258 on Monday then rebounded back above my quarterly pivot at 1.4308. Monday’s rebound for the equity averages were below this week’s risky levels at 12,794 for the Dow Industrial Average, 1352.3 for the S&P 500, 2856 for the NASDAQ, 5517 for Dow Transports and 868.01 for the Russell 2000.

 

10-Year Note – (3.142) My weekly value level is 3.304 with today’s risky level at 3.086.

 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

 

Comex Gold – ($1513.2) My semiannual value level is $1452.6 with a daily pivot at $1513.1, and my quarterly risky levels at $1532.7 and weekly risky level at $1536.8.

 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

 

Nymex Crude Oil – ($103.06) My annual pivots and today’s value level are $99.91, $101.92 and $100.67 with my semiannual risky level at $107.14.

 

 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

 

The Euro – (1.4365) My quarterly pivot is 1.4308 with daily and semiannual risky levels at 1.4488 and 1.4624. The 50-day simple moving average at 1.4279 held on Monday.

 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

 

Weekly Dow: (12,685) The five-week modified moving average is 12,427 with daily and weekly risky levels at 12,755 and 12,794. My annual value level lags at 11,491.

 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

 

S&P 500 – (1346.3) YTD high – 1370.58 on 5/2. Today’s pivot is 1345.9 with my weekly risky level at 1352.3. The October 2007 high is 1576.06.

 

NASDAQ – (2843) Multi-year high – 2887.75 on 5/2. My daily value level is 2821 with weekly risky level at 2856.   

 

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2391) Multi-year high – 2417.83 on 5/2. My daily value level is 2373 with a weekly pivot at 2380 and the May 2^nd high at 2417.83.     

 

Dow Transports – (5470) All time high – 5565.78 on 5/2. My annual value level is 5179 with daily and weekly pivots at 5503 and 5517.  

 

Russell 2000 – (842.80) All time high – 868.57 on 5/2. Daily and annual value levels are 832.01 and 784.16 with weekly and quarterly risky levels at 868.01 and 949.02.

 

The SOX– (443.66) My daily value level is 438.32 with weekly and quarterly risky levels at 448.29 and 498.75. The SOX is well below its July 2007 high at 549.39.

 

Richard Suttmeier Speaking Event – The Executive Forum at the National Arts Club in NYC

 

I will be discussing why “The Great Credit Crunch” continues. The event is on Tuesday, May 17^th at The National Arts Club, 15 Gramercy Park South (E. 20^th St.) Cocktails 5:45 PM, Dinner 6:30 PM, Presentation 7:30 PM. Use this link to register - http://www.execforumnyu.org/events.html

 

Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

 

Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist

ValuEngine.com
[phone]

 

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

 

“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”