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Focusing on key moving averages and weekly MOJO

The 10-Year US Treasury yield remains above its 200-day simple moving average at 3.080. Gold is holding above its 50-day simple moving average at $1472.5 and tested my quarterly pivot at $1523.7 overnight. Crude oil shows risk down to its 200-day simple moving average at $90.08 given closes below my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92. The euro broke below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.4340 on May 11th then failed there on a rebound last Friday. All major averages are below their 50-day simple moving averages except the Dow Transports with its 50-day at 5311. The Dow closed Monday just below its 50-day at 12,389.
 
10-Year Note – (3.127) This yield is making its second attempt since May 18th to break below its 200-day simple moving average at 3.080. This week’s pivot is 3.170.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1516.7) has held above its 50-day simple moving average at $1472.5. My quarterly pivot is $1523.7 the Troy ounce. This week’s risky level is $1566.6.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($97.46) below my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92 indicates risk to the 200-day simple moving average at $90.08.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4050) broke below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.4340 on May 11th then failed there on a rebound last Friday, May 20th. The 200-day simple moving average is 1.3671.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
 
Daily Dow: (12,381) Daily closes below the 50-day simple moving average at 12,389 increases the odds that the weekly close will be below the five-week modified moving average at 12,468. Weekly MOJO is still projected to be above 8.0 at 8.1 delaying a negative weekly chart. My annual value level is 11,491 with a daily pivot at 12,428 and weekly risky level at 12,818.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1317.4) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 1332.5 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative. Daily closes below the 50-day simple moving average at 1326 is a warning with weekly MOJO at 7.6 (declining below 8.0). Today’s risky level is 1324.0.
 
NASDAQ (2759) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 2803 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative. The NASDAQ gapped below its 50-day simple moving average at 2780 with weekly MOJO declining to 7.5. Today’s pivot is 2759.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2317) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 2355 keeps the weekly chart profile negative. NDX gapped below its 50-day at 2336 with weekly MOJO declining to 7.4. Today’s pivot is 2315.    
 
Dow Transports (5382) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 5356 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative. The Transports is above its 50-day at 5311 with weekly MOJO declining to 7.7. Today’s value level is 5356 with a weekly risky level at 5557.
 
Russell 2000 (829.06) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 834.24 keeps the weekly chart profile negative. The small cap index gapped below its 50-day at 631.65 with weekly MOJO declining to 6.9. Today’s pivot is 815.39.
 
The SOX– (423.34) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 440.01 keeps the weekly chart profile negative. The SOX is below its 50-day at 435.57 with weekly MOJO declining to 4.8. Today’s pivot is 426.43.
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
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