No Key Levels were violated on Wednesday

If the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury yield trends below its 200-day simple moving average at 3.084, the flight to quality should gain momentum as US stocks decline. This did not happen on Wednesday so stocks rebounded. Gold is above my quarterly pivot at $1523.7, but is slightly below this magnet this morning. Crude oil is between my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92. The euro is approaching today’s risky level at 1.4218 keeping stock futures in the green pre market. A short term positive for stocks comes from the Dow Transports which tested and held its 50-day simple moving average at 5327 on Wednesday. This is offset by the Dow Industrial Average closing Wednesday below its 50-day at 12,408 after trading above it intraday.

 

10-Year Note – (3.127) This yield continues to attempt a trend below its 200-day simple moving average at 3.084. This week’s pivot is 3.170 with today’s risky level at 3.101.

 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

 

Comex Gold – ($1524.8) has held above its 50-day simple moving average at $1479.8. My quarterly pivot is $1523.7 the Troy ounce. This week’s risky level is $1566.6.

 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

 

Nymex Crude Oil – ($101.18) is between my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92.  indicates risk to the 200-day simple moving average at $90.40.

 

 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

 

The Euro – (1.4082) broke below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.4340 on May 11^th then failed there on a rebound last Friday, May 20^th. The 200-day simple moving average is 1.3683.

 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

 

Daily Dow: (12,395) Daily closes below the 50-day simple moving average at 12,408 increases the odds that the weekly close will be below the five-week modified moving average at 12,468. Weekly MOJO is still projected to be above 8.0 at 8.1 delaying a negative weekly chart. Daily and annual value levels are 12,345 and 11,491 with weekly risky level at 12,818.

 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

 

S&P 500 – (1320.5) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 1332.5 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative. Daily closes below the 50-day simple moving average at 1327 is a warning with weekly MOJO declining below 8.0. Today’s value level is 1317.9.

 

NASDAQ – (2761) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 2803 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative. The NASDAQ gapped below its 50-day simple moving average at 2781 on Monday with weekly MOJO declining below 8.0. Today’s value level is 2735.

 

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2311) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 2355 keeps the weekly chart profile negative. NDX gapped below its 50-day at 2338 with weekly MOJO declining below 8.0. Today’s value level is 2289.    

 

Dow Transports – (5394) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 5356 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative. The Transports tested and held its 50-day at 5327 on Wednesday with weekly MOJO declining below 8.0. Today’s pivot is 5410 with a weekly risky level at 5557.

 

Russell 2000 – (820.87) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 834.24 keeps the weekly chart profile negative. The small cap index gapped below its 50-day at 631.65 on Monday with weekly MOJO declining below 8.0. Today’s value level is 810.34.

 

The SOX– (424.21) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 440.01 keeps the weekly chart profile negative. The SOX is below its 50-day at 435.48 with weekly MOJO declining below 8.0. Today’s value level is 416.86.

 

Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

 

Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist

ValuEngine.com
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

 

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