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Oversold Daily Charts Bump Up Against Negative Weekly Charts

Ending a six session losing streak does not end the downside risks for stocks as the weekly charts for the major averages are negative. The daily charts remain oversold so the near term rebound can linger into next week. As the month progresses the monthly charts become a focus as month end closes below five-month modified moving averages shifts the monthly charts to neutral. The five-month MMAs are 11,906 Dow Industrial Average, 1276.4 S&P 500, 2675 NASDAQ, 2244 NDX, 5090 Dow Transports, 790.71 Russell 2000, and 418.78 on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX). The Regional Banking Index (BKX) is the downside leader on its monthly chart which becomes negative on a June close below 50.28.
 
10-Year Note – (2.951) The 200-day simple moving average is 3.104 with daily and weekly risky levels at 2.918 and 2.779.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1538.0) My quarterly and daily pivots are $1523.7 and $1546.9, and weekly and monthly risky levels at $1563.2 and $1574.3.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($101.67) My weekly value level is $94.48 with my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92, and semiannual risky level at $107.14.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4511) Weekly, quarterly and monthly value levels are 1.4421, 1.4308 and 1.4258 with my semiannual pivot at 1.4624, and daily and semiannual risky levels at 1.4750 and 1.4989.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
                                                                                                                                               
Daily Dow: (12,124)Daily and annual value levels are 11,940 and 11,491 with the 200-day simple moving average at 11,678, and weekly risky level at 12,542.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1289.0) Daily and annual value levels are 1269.2 with the 200-day simple moving average at 1252.42, and weekly and monthly risky levels at 1330.3, and 1439.8.  
 
NASDAQ (2685) Daily and annual value levels are 2661 and 2335 with the 200-day simple moving average at 2626, and weekly and monthly risky levels at 2815 and 3068.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2257) Daily and semiannual value levels are 2247 and 1927.6 with the 200-day simple moving average at 2214, and weekly and monthly risky levels at 2274, 2373 and 2575.  
 
Dow Transports (5135) Daily and semiannual value levels are 5023 and 4264 with the 200-day simple moving average at 5016, my annual pivot at 5179, and weekly risky level at 5493.
 
Russell 2000 (792.64) Daily and annual value levels are 778.12 and 784.16 with the 200-day simple moving average at 767.82, and weekly, and monthly risky levels at 825.00, and 929.22.
 
The SOX– (409.62) Daily and annual value levels are 405.13 with the 200-day simple moving average at 407.31, and weekly, and quarterly risky levels at 425.93, and 498.75.
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
 
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”