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Oversold rally tests key daily chart levels.

|Includes: DIA, DUG, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
An oversold rally on the daily charts will battle the more powerful negative weekly charts as the week progresses. We need daily closes above five-day modified moving averages at 12,110 Dow Industrials, 1289.8 SPX, 2693 NASDAQ, 2263 NDX, 5168 Dow Transports, 795.77 Russell 2000 and 411.27 SOX. NONE OF TUESDAY’S CLOSES WERE ABOVE THESE LEVELS! The second focus is a tougher task - weekly closes above the five-week modified moving averages at 12,317 Dow Industrials, 1315.1 SPX, 2760 NASDAQ, 2317 NDX, 5282 Dow Transports, 819.52 Russell 2000, and 428.46 SOX. WE ARE WELL BELOW THESE LEVELS! The positive is that the NASDAQ and NDX tested and held their 200-day simple moving averages on Monday. The negative is that the SOX tested its 200-day to the upside on Tuesday at 408.56 and stayed below it at the close.
 
10-Year Note – (3.105) The 200-day simple moving average is 3.111 with daily and weekly risky levels at 2.989 and 2.854. Keys this week and this month are closes relative to the five-week modified moving average at 3.152 and the five-month modified moving average at 3.185.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1525.7) The 50-day simple moving average is $1506.3 with my quarterly pivot at $1523.7 and daily and weekly risky levels at $1535.0 and $1558.5.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($99.33) The 200-day simple moving average at $91.93 with the 50-day at $104.38. My weekly value level is $95.52 with daily and annual pivots at $98.42, $99.91 and $101.92.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4449) My monthly value level is 1.4258 with quarterly and weekly pivots at 1.4308 and 1.4371, and daily and semiannual risky levels at 1.4537 and 1.4624.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
                                                                                                                                               
Weekly Dow: (12,076) The 200-day simple moving average is 11,707 with a daily value level at 11,872 and weekly risky level at 12,449. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 12,317 and 11,906.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1287.9) The 200-day simple moving average is 1255.7 with a daily value level at 1255.6 and weekly risky level at 1321.5. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 1315.1 and 1276.4.
 
NASDAQ (2679) The 200-day simple moving average is 2634 with a daily value level at 2591 and weekly risky level at 2784. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 2760 and 2675.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2250) The 200-day simple moving average is 2220 with a daily value level at 2182 and weekly risky level at 2351. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 2317 and 2244.
 
Dow Transports (5168) The 200-day simple moving average is 5030 with a daily value level at 4957, my annual pivot at 5179, and weekly risky level at 5351. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 5282 and 5090.
 
Russell 2000 (793.99) The 200-day simple moving average is 770.47 with a daily value level at 762.96, my annual pivot at 784.16, and weekly risky level at 812.22. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 819.52 and 790.71.
 
The SOX– (406.75) My daily value level is 392.57 with the 200-day simple moving average at 408.56, and weekly risky level at 428.13. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 428.46 and 418.78.
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
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