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Oversold Bounce Straddles Key Weekly Levels

|Includes: DIA, DUG, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
The daily charts are no longer oversold except for the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and SOX, which remain oversold. The only average still below its 200-day simple moving average is the SOX. Tuesday’s highs straddled my weekly risky levels now pivots at 12,185 Dow Industrials, 1289.3 S&P 500, 2677 NASDAQ, 2235 NDX, 5337 Dow Transports (not tested), 787.87 Russell 2000 and 400.70 SOX (not tested). If all of these levels hold the key will be closes this week versus the five-week modified moving averages at 12,256 Dow Industrials, 1306.7 SPX, 2732 NASDAQ, 2292 NDX, 5258 Dow Transports (above on Tuesday), 812.21 Russell 2000 and 420.56 SOX. A close this week above all of these levels shifts these charts to neutral from negative.
 
10-Year Note – (2.980) The 200-day simple moving average is 3.119 with a daily pivot at 2.966 and this week’s risky level at 2.758. Tuesday’s pivot at 3.003 held on weakness.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1547.7) The 50-day simple moving average is $1514.5 with quarterly and daily pivots at $1523.7 and $1523.4, and weekly and monthly risky levels at $1549.5 and $1574.3. Strength on Tuesday tested this week’s risky level at $1549.5.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($93.40) Daily, semiannual and weekly value levels are $89.22, $87.52 and $87.15 with the 200-day simple moving average at $92.43 and my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92. The 200-day continues to hold on a daily close basis.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4399) Weekly and daily value levels are 1.4177 and 1.4144 with monthly and quarterly pivots at 1.4258 and 1.4308, and semiannual risky level at 1.4624. My quarterly pivot at 1.4308 held on Tuesday.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
                                                                                                                                               
Daily Dow: (12,190) The 200-day simple moving average is 11,752 with a daily value level at 11,943 and my weekly pivot at 12,185. The 5-week modified moving average is 12,256 with the 5-month modified moving average at 11,906.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1295.5) The 200-day simple moving average is 1261 with a daily value level at 1267.6 and weekly pivot at 1289.3. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 1306.7 and 1276.4.
 
NASDAQ (2687) My daily value level is 2612 with the 200-day simple moving average is 2645 and weekly pivot at 2677. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 2732 and 2675.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2252) My daily value level is 2189 with the 200-day simple moving average is 2230 and weekly pivot at 2235. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 2292 and 2244.
 
Dow Transports (5301) The 200-day simple moving average is 5050 with daily and annual pivots are 5192 and 5179 with my weekly risky level at 5337. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 5258 and 5090.
 
Russell 2000 (806.37) The 200-day simple moving average is 774.61 with a daily value level at 783.96, my annual pivot at 784.16, and weekly pivot at 787.87. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 812.21 and 790.71.
 
The SOX– (398.61) My daily value level is 384.85 with the 200-day simple moving average at 410.44, and weekly risky level at 400.70. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 420.56 and 418.78.
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
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