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Oversold Rally Ends Within Realm of Key Levels.

|Includes: DIA, DUG, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Most major equity averages ended Wednesday back below my weekly pivots at 12,185 Dow Industrials, 1289.3 S&P 500, 2677 NASDAQ, just above 2235 NDX, 5337 Dow Transports, above 787.87 Russell 2000 and 400.70 SOX. The focus today and tomorrow will be closes this week versus the five-week modified moving averages at 12,256 Dow Industrials, 1306.7 SPX, 2732 NASDAQ, 2292 NDX, 5258 Dow Transports, 812.21 Russell 2000 and 420.56 SOX. Transports are 30 points above 5288. Closes below the five-week MMAs will keep the weekly chart profiles negative. The bottom line is that we had the oversold rally on the daily charts but odds are the weekly charts will remain negative.
 
10-Year Note – (2.987) The 200-day simple moving average is 3.121 with a daily pivot at 2.989 and this week’s risky level at 2.758.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1549.9) My quarterly pivot is $1523.7 with daily and weekly pivots at $1541.0 and $1549.5, and monthly risky level at $1574.3. The May 2nd all time high was $1577.4.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($94.60) The 200-day simple moving average is $92.54 and my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4345) My weekly value level is 1.4177 with my monthly and quarterly pivots at 1.4258 and 1.4308 with my semiannual risky level at 1.4624. The 50-day simple moving average is 1.4414.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
                                                                                                                                               
Daily Dow: (12,110) The 200-day simple moving average is 11,761 with daily and weekly pivots at 12,133 and 12,185 and the 50-day simple moving average at 12,389. The 5-week modified moving average is 12,256 with the 5-month modified moving average at 11,906.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1287.1) The 200-day simple moving average is 1262 with daily and weekly pivots at 1287.3 and 1289.3. The 50-day SMA is at 1319.76. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 1306.7 and 1276.4.
 
NASDAQ (2669) My daily value level is 2655 with the 200-day simple moving average is 2648 and weekly pivot at 2677. The 50-day simple moving average is 2768.  The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 2732 and 2675.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2236) My daily value level is 2234 with the 200-day simple moving average is 2232 and weekly pivot at 2235. The 50-day SMA is at 2325. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 2292 and 2244.
 
Dow Transports (5288) The 200-day simple moving average is 5054 with my annual pivot at 5179, and daily and weekly pivots at 5314 and 5337. The 50-day SMA is at 5323.  The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 5258 and 5090.
 
Russell 2000 (799.87) The 200-day simple moving average is 775.52 with a daily pivot at 800.13, my annual pivot at 784.16, and weekly pivot at 787.87. The 50-day SMA is at 823.20. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 812.21 and 790.71.
 
The SOX– (396.73) My daily value level is 389.90 with the 200-day simple moving average at 410.83, and weekly risky level at 400.70. The 50-day SMA is at 427.01. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 420.56 and 418.78.
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
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