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Look for new monthly and quarterly risky levels and new semiannual value levels.

|Includes: DIA, DUG, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Today’s closes will be inputs to my proprietary analytics that will result in new monthly and quarterly risky levels for all major equity averages and set new semiannual value levels. There will likely be wide ranges between these levels suggesting significant volatility in the second half of 2011. My call is that whatever the upside becomes the Dow Industrial Average will at least test my annual value level at 11,491 in the second half of 2011, which was my call during my media blitz on May 16th and 17th. If this week’s close on the Dow is above the five-week modified moving average at 12,193, there should be additional upside in July before the downside returns. If the week ends below 12,193 then the downside risk comes first.
 
10-Year Note – (3.110) The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 3.113 and 3.127 with daily and weekly risky levels at 3.040 and 2.755. The moving average support has held.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1511.3) Weekly and semiannual value levels are $1471.6 and $1452.6 with a daily pivot at $1501.8, my quarterly pivot at $1523.7, and monthly risky level at $1574.3. Gold remains below its 50-day simple moving average at $1519.2.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($95.05) Daily, semiannual and weekly value levels are $93.19, $87.52 and $80.26 with the 200-day SMA at $92.95 and annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92.  
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4434) My weekly value level is 1.3744 with daily, monthly and quarterly pivots at 1.4366, 1.4258 and 1.4308, and semiannual risky level at 1.4624.  
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (12,261) The 200-day simple moving average is 11,802 with weekly and annual value levels are 11,671 and 11,491 and daily pivot at 12,245, and the five-week modified moving average at 12,193. The 50-day simple moving average is 12,369.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1307.4) The 200-day simple moving average is 1266 with the 50-day at 1317. My weekly value level is 1241.3 with a daily pivot at 1307.3 and the 5-week modified moving average at 1299.1. The 5-month MMA is 1276.4.
 
NASDAQ (2740) The 200-day simple moving average is 2659 with the 50-day at 2763. My weekly value level is 2583 with a daily risky level at 2767, and the 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 2716 and 2675.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2294) The 200-day simple moving average is 2241 with the 50-day at 2320. My weekly value level is 2172 with a daily risky level at 2316, and the 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 2277 and 2244.
 
Dow Transports (5356) The 200-day simple moving average is 5075 with the 50-day at 5327 with today’s risky level at 5421. My weekly value level is 5058 with my annual pivot at 5179 and daily risky level at 5421. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 5250 and 5090.
 
Russell 2000 (819.92) The 200-day simple moving average is 779.66 with the 50-day at 821.29. My weekly value level is 756.79 with my annual pivot at 784.16, and a daily risky level at 831.03. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 809.47 and 790.71.
 
The SOX– (400.17) The 200-day simple moving average is 412.69 with the 50-day at 424.07. My weekly value level is 382.62 with a daily risky level at 406.29. The 5-week and 5-month modified moving averages are 414.96 and 418.78.
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
 
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”