Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

The S&P 500 and Dow Transports lose their overbought status.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Transports now have declining momentum (12x3x3 slow stochastic) while the Dow Industrials, NASDAQ, NSX and Russell 2000 remain overbought. The SOX still has a negative daily chart. The 10-Year yield is trading between quarterly and weekly pivots at 3.052 and 2.870. Gold reached a new all time high at $1594.9 this morning and a close this week above my monthly pivot at $1547.9 targets a re-inflated bubble with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $1644.8 and $1655.8. Crude oil traded just below its 200-day simple moving average at $93.91 on Tuesday then traded above its 50-day SMA at $98.17 on Wednesday. The euro traded as high as 1.4290 this morning after being below its 200-day simple moving average at 1.3908 on Tuesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted of the possible need for additional monetary policy support as economic weakness may prove to be more persistent then expected, and that deflationary risks might re-emerge. This refueled commodity speculation and put unwarranted pressure on the US dollar. This Fed Policy has not worked!
 
10-Year Note – (2.877) The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 3.062 and 3.146 with quarterly, weekly and daily pivots at 3.052, 2.870 and 2.867, and my annual risky level at 2.690.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1582.5) Daily, monthly and weekly pivots are $1588.8, $1547.9 and $1560.3. We need a weekly close in July above $1547.9 to inflate the bubble further as semiannual and quarterly risky levels are $1644.8 and $1655.1. A new all time high was set at $1594.9 on Thursday.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($97.90) The 200-day simple moving average is $93.91 with the 50-day at $98.17. My weekly pivot is $94.24 with daily and annual pivots at $98.72, $99.91 and $101.9, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $102.40 and $103.93.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4138) Daily and quarterly value levels are 1.3973 and 1.3728 with the 200-day simple moving average at 1.3908, and my monthly pivot at 1.4133. Weekly and semiannual risky levels are 1.4553, 1.4752 and 1.4872.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (12,492) The daily chart remains overbought with the 50-day simple moving average at 12,364. My weekly and annual value levels are 12,047 and 11,491 with daily, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,717, 13,155, 13,839 and 13,890.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1317.7) The 50-day SMA is a pivot at 1314.8. My weekly value level is 1285.1 with daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1342.1, 1422.8 and 1467.0.
 
NASDAQ (2797) The 50-day SMA is support at 2760. My weekly value level is 2679 with daily, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2868, 2975, 3109 and 3243.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2352) The 50-day SMA is support at 2318. My weekly value level is 2239 with daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 2417, 2483, 2590 and 2630.
 
Dow Transports (5416) The 50-day SMA is support at 5346. My weekly and annual value levels are 5317 and 5179 with daily, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 5564, 5736, 6112 and 6131.
 
Russell 2000 (836.97) The 50-day SMA is support at 819.79. My weekly and annual value levels are 803.82 and 784.16 with daily, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 855.86, 924.95, 930.83 and 978.58.
 
The SOX– (393.87) My weekly value level is 384.47 with the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 418.83 and 415.74, and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 405.09, 482.54 and 493.22.
 
Equity Fundamentals – Fairly Valued
  • 54.2% of all stocks are undervalued / 45.8% of all stocks are overvalued
  • Seven sectors are undervalued – Construction by 6.6%
  • Nine sectors are overvalued – Transportation by 6.9%
  • P/E Ratios – Range from 22.1 times for Aerospace to 57.0 times for Oils-Energy.
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
 
To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe?
 
Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
 
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”