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Stocks are fundamentally neutral and technically mixed.

Recently ValuEngine has been presenting a “Fairly Valued” or neutral picture fundamentally with Sector Valuations between 5.3% overvalued and 7.0% undervalued. Technically the Dow is overbought on its monthly chart, positive on its weekly chart and neutral on its daily chart. This backdrop favors continued day to day volatility within trading ranges that depend upon weekly closes above or below the five-week modified moving average which stands at 12,372 for the Dow Industrial Average. Weekly closes above the five-week MMA indicates potential to my monthly risky level at 13,155. Weekly closes below indicate risk to my annual value level at 11,491. The yield on the 10-Year note seems range-bound between my quarterly pivot at 3.052 and weekly risky level at 2.819. Gold has been setting new all time highs almost daily with my semiannual risky level is $1644.8 the Troy ounce. Beware however that Tuesday’s trade was a key reversal – A new all time high at $1610.7 and a close was below Monday’s low. Crude oil trades between a weekly value level at $93.34 and my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92. The euro versus the dollar tracks around a monthly pivot at 1.4133.
 
10-Year Note – (2.917) My quarterly value level is 3.052 with my weekly risky level at 2.819.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1586.5) Set a new all time high at $1610.7 on Tuesday then closed below Monday’s low at $1591.4, which is a “key reversal” day. Weekly and monthly value levels are $1568.5 and $1547.9 with daily, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $1626.8, $1644.8 and $1655.8.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($97.64) The 200-day simple moving average is $94.26 with the 50-day at $97.52. My daily and weekly value levels are $94.90 and $93.34 with my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92, and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $102.40 and $103.92.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4142) The 200-day simple moving average is 1.3913 with the 50-day at 1.4300. Daily and quarterly value levels are 1.3885, and 1.3728 with a monthly pivot at 1.4133 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4478, 1.4553, 1.4752 and 1.4872.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (12,385) My daily, weekly and annual value levels are 12,298, 12,084 and 11,491 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 13,155, 13,839 and 13,890. 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1326.7) Daily, weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 1286.5, 1279.6, 1210.7, 981.3 and 855.7 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1422.8, 1467.0 and 1562.9.
 
NASDAQ (2827) Daily, weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2730, 2686, 2335, 2199 and 2049 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2975, 3109 and 3243.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2398) Daily, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 2317, 2257, 1951, 1861 and 1723 with monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 2483, 2590 and 2630.
 
Dow Transports (5347) Daily, weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 5153, 5183, 5179, 4335 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 5394, 5736, 6112 and 6131.
 
Russell 2000 (834.62) Daily, weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 806.37, 805.08, 784.16, 577.47 and 530.04 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 820.33, 924.95, 930.83 and 978.58.
 
The SOX– (397.41) Daily, weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 372.19, 378.14, 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 482.54, 493.22 and 531.14.
 
Equity Fundamentals – Fairly Valued
  • 54.2% of all stocks are undervalued / 45.8% of all stocks are overvalued
  • Eight sectors are undervalued – Construction by 7.0%
  • Eight sectors are overvalued – Transportation and Utilities by 5.3%
  • P/E Ratios – Range from 21.9 times for Aerospace to 58.5 times for Oils-Energy.
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
 
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”