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Stocks Are Poised To Test My Monthly Risky Levels.

Jul. 06, 2013 5:56 AM ETTLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY
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Banks, Homebuilders, chartest

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2006

I am the Founder & CEO at Global Market Consultants, Ltd. I consider myself as a Financial Engineer with an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. In 1972 I began my career in the financial services industry trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. I became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gave me the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which I feature in my newsletters, and market commentary. I formed Global Market Consultants Ltd at the end of 1988 and expanded on my analysis to include proprietary analytics. While operating Global Market Consultants I was the U.S. Treasury Strategist at Smith Barney 1991 through 1995, was Chief Financial Strategist at William R. Hough in St. Petersburg, Florida 1997 through 1999, and was Chief Market Strategist at Joseph Stevens 1999 into 2008. I began covering U.S. equities in 1997 and began to use ValuEngine as my stock screening tool in 2002 before joining them as Chief Market Strategist between September 2008 and November 2014. I was the Chief Market Strategist at Niagara International Capital Limited between December 2009 and December 2014. In 2005 through 2007 I wrote columns on RealMoney.com and authored TheStreet.com Technology Report. My unique coverage called for the housing bubble to pop in 2005 and for regional banks to collapse in 2006 and early-2007. This is when my proprietary analytics became known as value levels at which to buy on weakness and risky levels at which to sell on strength. I became an Expert Contributor for TheStreet.com in April 2012 and currently write one or two stories a day covering subjects such as: The housing market, community and regional banks, momentum stocks, earnings profiles both before companies report quarterly results and provide scorecards after reporting results. Many of my stories we include moving averages, momentum readings, analysts’ earnings estimates, and value levels and risky levels. Over the years I made frequent appearances on financial TV beginning in 1993 on CNBC covering the U.S. Treasury auctions and as a substitute for John Murphy on his segment called ‘Tech Talk’. I also occasionally appeared on CNN and Bloomberg. On almost every holiday I appeared for an hour covering stocks on a call-in / email-the-expert ‘Talking Stocks’ show on CNNfn. In 2002 I had my own show on Yahoo Finance TV called, ‘Traders’ Club with Richard Suttmeier’. When Fox Business began in late-2007 I was a frequent guest on ‘Money for Breakfast’. I also made appearances on Reuters TV, Yahoo Finance Breakout and BNN in Toronto. In recent years I shifted my focus to making presentations to various investor groups such as: MBA students at the University of Florida and South Florida, The American Association of Individual Investors, Wells Fargo Advisors, The Executive Form at the National Arts Club in NYC, Investors Roundtable of Wilmington NC, The Market Technicians Association, The Information Management Network when they cover Florida Banks in Ft Lauderdale, and the University of Tampa Investment Club. I was president of the Society for the Investigation of Recurring Events in NYC from 2000 into 2009. My background began on Long Island, New York. I graduated from Bay Shore High School in 1962, and was a member of the Honor Society, Golf Team, Math Team and Band. I graduated from Georgia Tech in Atlanta with a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering Degree in 1966, and was a member of Chi Phi Fraternity, the freshmen Golf Team, and was the captain of the Bowling team. I won the South East Regional Bowling Tournament in 1964 and won the National Intercollegiate Bowling Championship in the Doubles Event that same year. I graduated from Brooklyn Poly in 1970 with a Master of Science in Operations Research, Systems Analysis. My first job out of Georgia Tech was with Grumman Aerospace on Long Island 1966 through 1970 with project assignments on the Lunar Module and F-14 Tomcat Fighter Jet contract proposal. I was with Bank of New York in 1971, as the Senior Systems Analyst for computer applications for the Bank’s International Division. When I shifted my to Wall Street In 1972 I became a U.S. Government securities trader at Briggs Schaedle, a primary dealer where my father was Vice Chairman and my brother was Sales Manager. In 1977 I joined Loab Rhodes as a U.S. Treasury trader. Then my career advanced as noted above. I have been married to Linda since June 1969 and we are the parents of Stephen and Jason Suttmeier. Stephen has been married to Jennifer since 2004 and we have a granddaughter Emily and a grandson Robert. We have been living in Land O’ Lakes, Florida with Jason and his partner James since June 2009.

10-Year Note - (2.713) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.737 and 3.227 with daily, annual, monthly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 2.544, 2.476, 2.284, 1.981 and 1.719.

Comex Gold - ($1219.9) Weekly and daily value levels are $1193.0 and $1187.4 with monthly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1289.4, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1.

Nymex Crude Oil - ($103.33) Weekly and quarterly value levels are $98.07 and $91.75 with daily and monthly pivots at $102.65 and $101.69, and semiannual and annual risky levels at $109.84 and $115.23.

The Euro - (1.2826) Semiannual and quarterly value levels are 1.2477 and 1.1545 with a daily pivot at 1.2841 and weekly, monthly and annual risky levels at 11.3043, .3231 and 1.3257.

It's been several weeks since the five major averages set their May 20/May 22 highs at 15,542.40 Dow Industrials, 1687.18 S&P 500, 3532.04 Nasdaq, 6568.41 Dow Transports and 1008.23 Russell 2000. Since then the technicals have not been able to confirm those highs as cycle highs because we have not had simultaneous weekly closes below the five-week MMAs at 15,007 Dow Industrials, 1617.5 S&P 500, 3413 Nasdaq, 6252 Dow Transports and 978.57 Russell 2000. It seems like my monthly risky levels will be tested next at 15,437 Dow Industrials, 1669.0 S&P 500 and 3510 Nasdaq. My quarterly value levels are 14,288 Dow Industrials, 1525.6 S&P 500, 3284 Nasdaq, 5348 Dow Transports and 863.05 Russell 2000. My annual value levels are 12.696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports and 809.54 Russell 2000.


Daily Dow:(15,136) Quarterly and annual value levels are 14,288 and 12,696 with a weekly pivot at 15,120, and daily and monthly risky levels at 15,290 and 15,437, and the May 22 all time high at 15,542.40.

S&P 500 - (1631.9) Quarterly and annual value levels are 1525.6 and 1348.3 with a weekly pivot at 1628.6, and daily and monthly risky levels at 1653.4, 1669.0, and the May 22 all time high at 1687.18.

NASDAQ - (3479) Quarterly and annual value levels are 3284 and 2806 with a weekly pivot at 358, and daily and monthly risky levels at 3524 and 3510, and the May 22 multi-year high at 3532.04.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (2963) My Annual value level is 2463 with a weekly pivot at 2941, and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 2997, 2978 and 2983, and the May 22 multi-year high at 3053.51.

Dow Transports - (6290) Annual and quarterly value levels are 5925, 5469 and 5348 with a weekly pivot at 6236, and daily and monthly risky levels at 6421 and 6758 and the May 20 all time high at 6562.85.

Russell 2000 - (1005.39) Quarterly and annual value levels are 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with a weekly pivot at 999.43, and daily and monthly risky levels at 1018.66 and 1030.75, above the May 22 high at 1008.23.

The SOX- (476.12) Quarterly and annual value levels are 404.59 and 338.03 with a weekly pivot at 471.68, and daily and monthly risky levels at 486.35 and 496.16.

Dow Utilities:(476.94) My weekly value level is 460.03 with daily, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 489.22, 489.78, 510.38, 523.33 and 540.37.

VE Morning Briefing - If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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