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The Dow could not climb above my annual pivot at 11,491.

|Includes: DIA, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Strength for the Dow Industrial Average on Tuesday failed within three points of my annual pivot at 11,491, which could now be the high end of a trading range with the post-FMOC low at 10,604 the low end. Similarly the S&P 500 stayed shy of its annual pivot at 1210.7 at the high end and 1101.5 at the low end. Closes above 11,491 Dow and 1210.7 SPX are needed to extend the bear market rally. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury appears stuck between my semiannual pivot at 2.414 and the December 2008 low yield at 2.016. There are no longer-term risky levels for gold with the recently set all time high at $1817.6 the Troy ounce. Crude oil should continue to trade around its 200-week simple moving average at $83.95. The 200-week has been a magnet since June 2009. The euro key support is its 200-week at 1.4026.
 
10-Year Note – (2.230) Weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 2.576, 2.690 and 3.053 with my semiannual pivot at 2.414, and daily and semiannual risky levels at 2.163 and 1.672.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1788.0) Weekly, quarterly, semiannual and monthly value levels are $1685.9, $1655.8, $1644.8 and $1604.1 with a daily risky level at $1850.2.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($86.96) The 200-week simple moving average is $83.96 with a daily value level at $82.95, a weekly risky level at $92.09, my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $102.40 and $103.92.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4408) Weekly and quarterly value levels are 1.4229 and 1.3728 with daily and semiannual risky levels at 1.4499 and 1.4752.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (11,406) The 200-week simple moving average is 10,742 with a daily value level at 11,043, my annual pivot at 11,491, and weekly risky level at 12,098. Semiannual value levels are 9,635 and 8,468 with prior chart lows as overhead resistances at 11,555 and 11,862.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1192.8) My daily value level is 1145.2 with my annual pivot at 1210.7 and weekly risky level at 1275.7. Chart resistances: 1250 and 1258. Semiannual value levels are 981.3 and 855.7 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1444.1, 1467.0 and 1562.9.
 
NASDAQ (2523) Daily and annual value levels are 2412 and 2335 with weekly risky level is 2780. Chart resistance: 2600. Annual and semiannual value levels are 2335, 2199 and 2049 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 3038, 3109 and 3243.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2194) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 2113, 1951, 1861 and 1723 with weekly, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 2405, 2553, 2590 and 2630.
 
Dow Transports (4594) Daily and semiannual value levels are 4412, 4335 and 3868 with chart resistances at 4906 and 5043, and weekly and annual risky levels at 5109 and 5179.
 
Russell 2000 (704.75) Daily and semiannual value levels are 660.65, 577.47 and 530.04 with chart resistance at 772.62, and annual, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 784.16, 788.85, 910.11, 930.83 and 978.58.
 
The SOX– (355.41) Daily, annual and semiannual value levels are 343.57, 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67 with chart resistance at 381.62 and weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 383.44, 459.15, 493.22 and 531.14.
 
Equity Fundamentals – Stocks are cheap, but not as cheap as in March 2009.
  • 81.6% of all stocks are undervalued / 18.4% of all stocks are overvalued. In March 2009, 91.1% of all stocks were undervalued.
  • All sixteen sectors are undervalued, fifteen by double-digit percentages. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
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