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The Most Important Level Held Again – 2335 on the NASDAQ

|Includes: DIA, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
On August 9th the NASDAQ traded slightly below my annual value level at 2335 making this level the most important level from my proprietary analytics. If that’s the low end of the overall near term trading range, then my annual pivots at 11,491 Dow Industrials and 1210.7 S&P 500 are the upper end of the range. US Treasury yields remain near record lows and today supply is put to a test today with an auction of $35 billion in 2-Year notes. Gold hits yet another new all time high at $1917.9 the Troy ounce. Crude oil is back above its 200-week simple moving average at $83.89. The euro is testing this week’s risky level at 1.4492. Fundamentally stocks remain extremely cheap but with negative technicals.
 
10-Year Note – (2.095) Daily, semiannual, weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 2.279, 2.414, 2.428, 2.690 and 3.053 with the recent low yield at 1.973 and my semiannual risky level at 1.672.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1897.9) Daily, weekly, quarterly, semiannual and monthly value levels are $1838.2, $1825.1, $1818.4, $1655.8, $1644.8 and $1604.1 with Monday’s all time high at $1898.6.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($84.12) The 200-week simple moving average is $83.89 with daily and weekly risky levels at $88.61 and $91.54, my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $102.40 and $103.92.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4362) My quarterly value level is 1.3728 with weekly, daily and semiannual risky levels at 1.4492, 1.4533 and 1.4752.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (10,855) The 200-week and 120-month simple moving averages are 10,714 and 10,568 with my annual pivot at 11,491, and daily and weekly risky levels at 11,553 and 11,819. Semiannual value levels are 9,635 and 8,468.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1123.8) Semiannual value levels are 981.3 and 855.7 with daily and annual risky levels at 1202.4 and 1210.7. SPX is below its 200-week and 120-month simple moving averages at 1152 and 1162.
 
NASDAQ (2345) My annual value level is 2335 with daily and weekly risky levels at 2509 and 2637.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2045) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1951, 1861 and 1723 with daily and weekly risky levels at 2180 and 2309.
 
Dow Transports (4226) My semiannual value level is 3868 with a semiannual pivot at 4335, and daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 4515, 4744 and 5179.
 
Russell 2000 (651.33) Semiannual value levels are 577.47 and 530.04 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 703.70, 730.16 and 784.16.
 
The SOX– (328.94) Annual and semiannual value levels are 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67 with daily and weekly risky levels at 349.42 and 357.94.
 
Equity Fundamentals – Stocks are extremely cheap, but not as cheap as in March 2009.
  • 88.9% of all stocks are undervalued / 11.1% of all stocks are overvalued. In March 2009, 91.1% of all stocks were undervalued.
  • All sixteen sectors are undervalued, all by double-digit percentages, thirteen by 22.8% to 34.1%. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. – Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.
 
VE Morning Briefing – If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D
 
ValuTrader Model Portfolio – If you want to learn how to “Buy and Trade” use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V
 
ETF Weekly – If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U
 
ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report – In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. My August report will be published today. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
 
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”