Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Staying In Bernanke Post-FOMC Trading Ranges

|Includes: DIA, GLD, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
The major equity averages have been in trading ranges since the August 9th FOMC meeting. The Dow between 10,604.07 and 11,529.67 versus the 200-week and 120-month simple moving averages at 10,714 and 10,568 holding at the low end, and my annual pivot at 11,491 at the upper end. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury has been between 2.360 at the upper end down to 1.973 at the lower end. Gold was late in establishing a range, but its down from a record high at $1917.9 the Troy ounce to $1705.4 just over the past three sessions. Crude oil rebounded from a low at $75.71 to $89.00 per barrel. The euro versus the dollar has been moving in tandem as weak currencies. If the equity ranges are broken to the upside the overhead resistance for the Dow is the “Death Cross” of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 11,961 and 11,988. Fundamentals remain cheap.
 
10-Year Note – (2.227) Semiannual, weekly, annual and quarterly value levels are 2.414, 2.428, 2.690 and 3.053 with daily and semiannual risky levels at 2.039 and 1.672.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1773.3) Quarterly, semiannual and monthly value levels are $1655.8, $1644.8 and $1604.1 with weekly and daily risky levels at $1825.1 and $1857.1 and Tuesday’s all time high at $1917.9.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($84.96) My daily value level is $81.94 with the 200-week simple moving average is $83.89 and weekly risky level at $91.54, my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $102.40 and $103.92.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.4376) My quarterly value level is 1.3728 with a daily pivot at 1.4345 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4492 and 1.4752.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (11,150) My daily value level is 10,801 with the 200-week and 120-month simple moving averages are 10,714 and 10,568, my annual pivot at 11,491, and weekly risky level at 11,819. Semiannual value levels are 9,635 and 8,468.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1159.3) Semiannual value levels are 981.3 and 855.7 with a daily value level at 1114.0 and annual risky level at 1210.7.
 
NASDAQ (2420) Daily and annual value levels are 2302 and 2335 with weekly risky level at 2637.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2108) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1951, 1861 and 1723 with a daily value level at 2013 and weekly risky level at 2309.
 
Dow Transports (4344) Daily and semiannual value levels are 4071 and 3868 with my semiannual pivot at 4335, and weekly and annual risky levels at 4744 and 5179.
 
Russell 2000 (674.43) Daily and semiannual value levels are 636.67, 577.47 and 530.04 with weekly and annual risky levels at 730.16 and 784.16.
 
The SOX– (336.33) Annual and semiannual value levels are 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67 with a daily value level at 317.45 and weekly risky level at 357.94.
 
Equity Fundamentals – Stocks are extremely undervalued.
  • 85.5% of all stocks are undervalued / 14.5% of all stocks are overvalued. In March 2009, 91.1% of all stocks were undervalued.
  • All sixteen sectors are undervalued, fifteen by double-digit percentages, twelve by 20.5% to 30.1%. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. – Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.
 
VE Morning Briefing – If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D
 
ValuTrader Model Portfolio – If you want to learn how to “Buy and Trade” use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V
 
ETF Weekly – If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U
 
ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report – In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. My August report will be published today. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
 
To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe?
 
Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
 
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”