The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note rose to new multi-year high at 3.007% on Friday with the 30-Year bond yield up to 3.905% versus its multi-year high at 3.940% set on August 22. The higher bond yield intensified the ValuEngine valuation warning with 75.9% of all stocks overvalued. The weekly chart for the 10-Year continues to show that the rise in yields is overdone with a 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading of 85.74.
Gold could not sustain gains above $1400 the Troy ounce last week and Friday's low was $1358.8, which was above the five-week modified moving average at $1358.2 with the 200-week simple moving average a resistance at $1471.8.
Crude oil held its 50-day SMA at $105.51 last week and ended the week above my semiannual pivot at $109.84. The weekly chart remains overbought with the five-week MMA at $106.20 per barrel. The 200-week simple moving average is a major support at $90.48.
The euro vs. the dollar ended last week below its five-week MMA at 1.3226 and its annual pivot at 1.3257 after a failed test of the 200-week SMA at 1.3368. If this configuration remains the same on Friday The 13th the weekly chart profile will shift to negative for the euro.
10-Year Note - (2.936) My semiannual value level is 3.227 with a daily pivot at 2.904, and weekly, monthly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.858, 2.725, 2.476, 1.981 and 1.719.
Comex Gold - ($1388.8) My monthly value level is $1224.6 with a daily pivot at $1395.2, and weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1424.6, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1.
Nymex Crude Oil - ($110.19) Monthly and quarterly value levels are $105.67 and $91.75 with weekly and semiannual pivots at $109.11 and $109.84, and daily and annual risky levels at $111.18 and $115.23.
The Euro - (1.3175) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.3082, 1.3111, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with annual, weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3257, 1.3450 and 1.4295.
For stocks to confirm the early-August highs as cycle highs all five major equity averages need to end the week below their five-week MMAs at 15,116 Dow Industrials, 1659.2 S&P 500, 3606 Nasdaq, 6396 Dow Transports and 1026.23 Russell 2000. The Nasdaq is the only one of the five with overbought weekly momentum with a reading of 86.50.
This week's pivots or risky levels are 14,965 Dow Industrials, 1663.7 S&P 500, 3671 Nasdaq, 6460 Dow Transports and 1038.99 Russell 2000. My quarterly and annual value levels remain at 14,288 / 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1525.6 / 1348.3 S&P 500, 3284 / 2806 Nasdaq, 5348 / 5469 Dow Transports, and 863.05 / 860.25 / 809.54 Russell 2000. My monthly and semiannual risky levels are 16,336 / 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1766.8 / 1743.5 S&P 500, 3772 / 3759 Nasdaq, 7061 / 7104 Dow Transports and 1093.07 / 1089.42 Russell 2000.
The Dow Industrial Average is between its 200-day SMA at 14,480 and its 50-day SMA at 15,249. The S&P 500 is well above its 200-day SMA at 1567.92 and is just below its 50-day SMA at 1665.51. The Nasdaq is above its 50-day SMA at 3595.55 with the August 5 multi-year high at 3694.18. The Dow Transportation Average is well above its 200-day SMA at 6030 and is just below its 50-day SMA at 6413. The Russell 2000 is well above its 200-day SMA at 945.46 and tested its 50-day at 1031.69.
Daily Dow: (14,923) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,787, 14,288 and 12,696 with a weekly pivot at 14,965, the August 2 all time high at 15,658.43, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 16,336 and 16,490.
S&P 500 - (1655.2) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 1631.0, 1525.6 and 1348.3 with a weekly pivot at 1663.7, the August 2 all time high at 1709.67, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1766.8 and 1743.5.
NASDAQ - (3660) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 3592, 3284 and 2806 with a weekly pivot at 3671, the August 5 multi-year high at 3694.18, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 3772 and 3759.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3133) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 3080, 2983 and 2463 with a weekly pivot at 3126, the August 13 multi-year high at 3149.24, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 3185 and 3304.
Dow Transports - (6371) Daily, annual and quarterly value levels are 6171, 5925, 5469 and 5348 with a weekly risky level at 6460, the August 1 all time high at 6686.86, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 7061 and 7104.
Russell 2000 - (1029.55) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 1005.41, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with a weekly risky level at 1038.99, the August 5 all time high at 1063.52, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1093.07 and 1089.42.
The SOX - (475.10) Daily, weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 468.10, 454.53, 404.59 and 338.03 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at 516.08 and 533.56.
Dow Utilities: (473.37) My daily value level is 471.35 with semiannual and weekly risky levels at 481.92 and 482.27 and quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at 510.38, 523.33, 530.89 and 540.37.
To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.
"Buy and Trade Replaces Buy and Hold"
An Evening with ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
Florida AAII Chapter Meeting, Wednesday, September 18, 2013 at 6:30PM
University Club of Winter Park
841 N. Park Ave.
Winter Park, FL 32789