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Stocks Fundamentals and Technicals are Balanced

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
The fundamentals are in balance with the percentage of all stocks undervalued between 65% and 95%. With the Dow Industrial Average at 10,404.49 ValuEngine showed 93.5% of all stocks undervalued. I expect stocks to stay in the upper quadrant of the trading range as long as weekly closes are above the five-week modified moving average now at 11,570. I have a new monthly pivot at 11,928, which favors a trading range environment. My quarterly risky level at 12,507 should define the upper end of the trading range. My neutral zone for the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury is between my semiannual value level at 2.414 and this month’s pivot at 1.963. Gold should trade between my semiannual value level at $1644.8 and my new monthly risky level at $1821.5 with my quarterly pivot at $1738.4. The key support for crude oil remains the 200-week simple moving average at $83.52. I have a new monthly pivot at $95.67. The euro versus the dollar appears as a wild card between a quarterly value level at 1.2598 and semiannual risky level at 1.4752.
 
10-Year Note – (2.152) Daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.275, 2.414, 2.669 and 2.690 with a weekly pivot at 2.191 and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.963 and 1.672.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1720.4) Semiannual, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1644.8, $1537.5, $1469.9 and $1,356.5 with my quarterly pivot at $1738.4 and daily and monthly risky levels at $1750.8 and $1811.4, and the September 6th all time high at $1923.7.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($92.53) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with my weekly value level at $86.38, daily and monthly pivots at $96.43 and $95.67, and quarterly and annual risky levels at $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.3838) Weekly, and quarterly value levels are 1.3319 and 1.2598 with daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4121, 1.4568, 1.4752 and 1.4872.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Weekly Dow: (11,955) Weekly and annual value levels at 11,694 and 11,491 with a monthly pivot at 11,928, and daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,315, 12,507 and 13,890. The October 4th low was 10,404.49 with the May 2nd high at 12,876.00.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1253.3) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with weekly, monthly and annual value levels at 1231.9, 1229.3 and 1210.7, and daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1291.3, 1303.7 and 1562.9. The YTD high is 1370.58. My annual risky level is 1562.9.
 
NASDAQ (2684) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with my annual value level at 2335, monthly and weekly pivots at 2636 and 2686, and daily and quarterly risky levels at 2745 and 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is 3243.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2360) - The YTD low is 2034.92 with a monthly value level at 2294, and weekly, daily and quarterly risky levels at 2394, 2398 and 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42 and annual risky level at 2590.
 
Dow Transports (4893) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with weekly and semiannual value levels at 4739, 4335 and 3868, and monthly, daily, annual and quarterly risky levels at 5034, 5107, 5179 and 5359, and the YTD high / all time high at 5627.85 on July 7th.
 
Russell 2000 (741.05) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with a weekly value level at 713.93, a monthly pivot at 739.80, and daily, annual and quarterly risky levels at 770.98, 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high / all time high at 868.57 on May 2nd.
 
The SOX– (386.49) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with a monthly value level at 339.47, and daily, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 394.85, 398.86 and 417.63, and the YTD high at 450.79.
 
Equity Fundamentals – Stocks are extremely undervalued.
  • 76.0% of all stocks are undervalued / 24.0% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4th 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
  • All sixteen sectors are undervalued, fourteen by double-digit percentages. Two are undervalued by more than 20%. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. – Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.
 
VE Morning Briefing – If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D
 
ValuTrader Model Portfolio – If you want to learn how to “Buy and Trade” use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V
 
ETF Weekly – If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U
 
ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report – In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C
 
Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
 
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”