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Crude Oil Reaches My Annual Pivot at $101.92.

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
By definition crude oil had an 85% chance of returning to my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92 and this occurred on Wednesday. Higher crude oil prices could have pulled the major equity averages above their 200-day simple moving averages on the “stronger economy” theory but did not. Instead stocks traded lower in late trading on Wednesday because of the weak euro versus the dollar “wildcard”, which is trending below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.3687. Both the Dow and NASDAQ hit session lows in the final half hour of trading on news that US banks have exposures to the European debt problem.The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury remains stuck around its 50-day at 2.042. Gold is stuck between my quarterly pivot at $1738.4 and my monthly risky level at $1821.5. The major averages ended Wednesday below their 200-day SMAs at: 11.977 Dow Industrials, 1271.6 SPX, 2688 NASDAQ, 5012 Dow Transports and 775.75 Russell 2000.
 
10-Year Note – (2.016) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.414, 2.669 and 2.690 with daily, weekly and monthly pivots at 2.001, 2.103 and 1.963, and semiannual risky level at 1.672.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1764.5) Quarterly, semiannual, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1738.4, $1644.8, $1588.6, $1469.9 and $1,356.5 with daily and monthly risky levels at $1796.2 and $1821.50, and the September 6th all time high at $1923.7. The year’s low was $1535.0 set on September 26th.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($101.75) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with my weekly value level at $90.44, my monthly value level at $95.67, daily, quarterly monthly and annual pivots at $102.59, $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92, and semiannual risky levels at $103.93 and $107.90. The high and low for oil happened on the same days as the Dow with the high at $114.83 per barrel on May 2nd.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.3471) My quarterly value level is 1.2598 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.3476 and 1.3655, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4568, 1.4752 and 1.4872.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (11,906) Weekly and annual value levels are 11,772 and 11,491 with my monthly pivot at 11,928, and daily, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,029, 12,507 and 13,890. The October 4th low was 10,404.49 with the May 2nd high at 12,876.00.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1236.9) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with weekly and annual value levels at 1217.8 and 1210.7, monthly and daily pivots at 1229.3 and 1247.5, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 1303.7 and 1562.9. The YTD high is 1370.58. My annual risky level is 1562.9.
 
NASDAQ (2640) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with weekly and annual value levels at 2592 and 2335, daily and monthly pivots at 2641 and 2636, and quarterly risky level at 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is 3243.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2324) - The YTD low is 2034.92 with weekly and monthly value levels at 2300 and 2294, a daily pivot at 2335, and quarterly risky level at 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42 and annual risky level at 2590.
 
Dow Transports (4884) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with weekly and semiannual value levels at 4703 and 4335 and 3868, daily and monthly pivots at 4903 and 5034, and annual and quarterly risky levels at 5179 and 5359, and the YTD high / all time high at 5627.85 on July 7th.
 
Russell 2000 (729.89) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with a weekly value level at 702.22, daily and monthly pivots at 725.84 and 739.80, and annual and quarterly risky levels at 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high / all time high at 868.57 on May 2nd.
 
The SOX– (389.92) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with weekly and monthly value levels at 369.08 and 339.47, a daily pivot at 383.54, and quarterly risky level at 417.63, and the YTD high at 450.79.
 
Equity Fundamentals – Stocks are extremely undervalued.
  • 79.2% of all stocks are undervalued / 20.8% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4th 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
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Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
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