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The Stock Market is Poised for Neutral Weekly Closes

|Includes: DIA, GLD, QQQ, SPY, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Even if the major equity averages end the week above their five-week modified moving averages some will have declining MOJO. Those with rising MOJO will have positive weekly charts, but those with declining MOJO will have neutral weekly charts. The five-week MMAs are; 11,656 Dow Industrials, 1213.4 SPX, 2582 NASDAQ, 2270 NASDAQ 100 (NDX), 4730 Dow Transports, 710.08 Russell 2000 and 370.11 SOX. The percentage of stocks that are overvalued declined to 77.9% yesterday from 93.5% on October 4th. Monthly and weekly charts are neutral, and the daily charts are positive. Sounds like a choppy path for December.
 
10-Year Note – (2.107) Weekly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.289, 2.414, 2.669 and 2.690 with daily, semiannual and monthly risky levels at 1.999, 1.672 and 1.602.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Comex Gold – ($1749.3) Daily, semiannual, weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are $1706.2, $1644.8, $1588.6, $1469.9 and $1,356.5 with my quarterly pivot at $1738.4, and weekly and monthly risky levels at $1786.9 and $1873.8, and the September 6th all time high at $1923.7. The year’s low was $1535.0 set on September 26th.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Nymex Crude Oil ($100.00) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with daily and monthly value levels at $99.45 and $86.20, quarterly, monthly and annual pivots at $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92, and weekly, semiannual risky levels at $106.89, $103.93 and $107.90. The high and low for oil happened on the same days as the Dow with the high at $114.83 per barrel on May 2nd.
 
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
The Euro – (1.3458) Daily and quarterly value levels are 1.3277 and 1.2598 with weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3901, 1.3953, 1.4752 and 1.4872.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
Daily Dow: (12,020) Annual, daily and semiannual value levels are 11,491, 11,469, 9,635 and 8,468 with a monthly pivot at 11.794, and weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 12,461, 12,507, and 13,890. The October 4th low was 10,404.49 with the May 2nd high at 12,876.00.
 
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
 
S&P 500 (1244.6) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with a daily value level at 1190.0, semiannual value levels at 981.3 and 855.7, annual and monthly pivots at 1210.7 and 1211.8, and weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 1302.7, 1303.7 and 1562.9. The YTD high is 1370.58. My annual risky level is 1562.9.
 
NASDAQ (2626) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with my annual value level at 2335, a daily value level at 2508, semiannual value levels at 2199 and 2049, a monthly pivot at 2588, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 2772 and 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is 3243.
 
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2309) The YTD low is 2034.92 with a daily value level at 2211, semiannual value levels at 1951 and 1861, a monthly pivot at 2281, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 2434 and 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42, and my annual risky level at 2590.
 
Dow Transports (4910) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with semiannual value levels at 4335 and 3868, a daily value level at 4644, a monthly pivot at 4752, and annual, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 5179, 5294 and 5359, and the YTD high / all time high at 5627.85 on July 7th.
 
Russell 2000 (730.77) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with semiannual value levels at 577.47 and 530.04, a daily value level at 687.65, a monthly pivot at 695.30, and weekly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 774.74, 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high / all time high at 868.57 on May 2nd.
 
The SOX– (375.31) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with monthly and annual value levels at 339.47 and 270.98, daily and monthly value levels at 350.50 and 343.57, and weekly and quarterly risky level at 405.32 and 417.63, and the YTD high at 450.79.
 
Equity Fundamentals – Stocks are undervalued, but 77.9% is well below the October 4th 93.5%.
  • 78.2% of all stocks are undervalued / 21.8% of all stocks are overvalued. On October 4th 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued.
  • Fifteen of sixteen sectors are undervalued by double-digit percentages. Only four are undervalued by 20.0% to 23.3%. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. – Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com.
 
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Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions
  • Value Level – The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level.
  • Risky Level – The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.
 
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.
 
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